Why Rampage Jackson will finish Forrest Griffin early
July 1, 2008 by Sam Caplan
Not a particularly bold headline, I guess. However, it’s the week of UFC 86 and there is shockingly very little anticipation for what clearly is the UFC’s biggest main event thus far into 2008.
Perhaps it’s over-saturation of MMA on television? Perhaps it’s the holiday weekend? Or perhaps the economy has finally reached a point that casual MMA fans are cutting back on luxuries, starting with pay-per-view.
Regardless of how the general public feels, I am excited about Saturday’s UFC light heavyweight title match between Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Forrest Griffin. Everyone likes seeing stars fight, and Jackson and Griffin are two of the promotion’s biggest stars. No, this fight does not have a grudge angle to it, but the styles of the two could make for some post-July 4 fireworks.
Breaking this down, one area where there could be a decisive advantage is when it comes to staminia. Jackson has been vocal in the past about his dislike for training. Meanwhile, Griffin is one of the hardest working fighters in the world right now.
With so much money at stake, I think it’s safe to assume that Jackson has found the proper motivation needed to get himself into the gym earlier and more often. This is not the same Jackson that fought for PRIDE who would often rely too heavily on his natural physical ability. He’s improved as a fighter since starting to work with Juanito Ibarra and he now has the money needed to operate a proper training camp.
I’m still giving Griffin the advantage when it comes to cardio, but I don’t think the gap will be as big as some might be anticipating.
Griffin also has an edge when it comes to jiu-jitsu. Rampage has good takedowns and slams that are complemented by excellent ground and pound. However, his submissions are lacking, as evidenced by Jackson getting tapped out by several lesser experienced fighters during the taping of the seventh season of “The Ultimate Fighter.”
When it comes to ability to absorb punishment, both Jackson and Griffin have world class chins. As such, I see this fight going at least four rounds and possibly five. Because both are able to take a beating, I think that is why we will be treated to an exciting match with momentum changes and near finishes. The crowd at the Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas will be on their feet several times during the bout, which will create more excitement for the viewer watching at home.
So where does this all leave Jackson, the defending champion? Does he not have any advantages coming into this fight? He most certainly does.
Jackson is clearly the much better wrestler of the two, although Griffin proved against Tito Ortiz that his takedown defense can be impeccable at times. However, Ortiz’s shot is outdated while Jackson’s standup ability means that Griffin can’t just drop his hands, as he must keep them higher in order to protect his face. Griffin almost shut out Ortiz in the takedown department, and while he will certainly stuff some of Jackson’s takedown attempts, Jackson will be successful on a few.
If the fight goes to the ground with Jackson on top, he will need to watch out for submissions from the bottom. However, if he can keep from getting himself caught in a triangle, Jackson will make life very difficult for Griffin through his ground and pound ability. It’s imperative that Griffin utilize good wrist control from the bottom and or body lock Jackson so that he is unable to get off unanswered shots from top position.
Another area where Jackson will have the advantage is the standup. Griffin is not the world’s best defensive fighter. And having a good chin is a great way to make sure you’re around for the end of the fight, but it doesn’t mean you’re neccessarily going to be up on the scorecards. Griffin might also be more of a diverse striker, as I’m sure we will see him throw more kicks than Rampage. But where the difference will be felt is when it comes to punching power. Griffin by no means is a soft puncher, however, he hasn’t traditionally been a one-punch knockout artist. Jackson has shown us in the past that he does indeed possess that power.
While Griffin has a strong chin, he’s not invincible, as he proved during his upset loss against Keith Jardine. Hit him hard enough in the right spot, and he’ll go out like any other man would. While Griffin will be able to score with kicks, I expect Jackson to be able to throw and land more power shots than Griffin.
All things taken into consideration, does Griffin have a chance to become the UFC’s first organic “Ultimate Fighter” television show winner to claim a title? Yes, Matt Serra technically is the first TUF’er to win a world title, but he had already competed in the UFC at the time of his selection of the show. To me, if Griffin wins, he should be viewed as the first TUF alum to take home gold. Griffin most certainly has a shot and it wouldn’t surprise me if he pulled off the upset. That being said, I believe that Jackson is the smart play here. I see him imposing his will and keeping Griffin on the defensive for much of the fight.
As long as it is Jackson dictating the terms of the fight to Griffin, I just can’t see the upset taking place. I see this fight ending late in the fourth round, with Jackson winning via TKO after the referee steps in to call the fight due to Griffin eating too many ground and pound shots on his back.
nice read, i gotta a feeling for Forrest tho, he’s gonna work his arse off now he’s got this oppurtunity, fuck it whatever its gonna be an awesome fight.
both of em been out the picture too long
Jackson says he hates training, that DOES NOT mean he slacks on it. He usually brings it up as part of a joke, like the time he said “I hate training so I have all this rage against my opponent cause he made my ass get up at 6AM every day” or something to that effect. It’s more him being humorous than a reflection on his work ethic.
I can think of maybe one or two times in Pride where he seemed to gas (vs Ninja for instance) but mostly the guy has cardio to last the fight.
Also, I think its kinda silly to bring up him tapping *in training* during TUF season 7 as proof that he lacks in submissions. It just doesn’t really count, because no guy is going to tough out a sub like that in training match and even risk an injury (wouldn’t that just cap off a 10 month layoff nicely), whereas in an actual title fight Page will definitely try to hang in there and tough out a sub like CB’s necktie, and I personally think he might have made it out had he been willing to roll the dice.
Let’s not forget that Page has fought some world-class MMA grapplers like Bustamonte, Arona, Lindland, the Rua’s, etc and he has only ever been submitted once, by a young Sakuraba early in his career. Griffin’s subs are probably better than Page’s but Page’s sub defense is better than Griffin’s subs.
I agree with basically the rest of your article and in fact I came to the same conclusion you did (independently… great minds?), Page by TKO in the 4th.
I’m thinking there’s no way Forrest gets Rampage in any kind of a position to even attempt a submission. This fight is going to be about standup and the clinch, and Rampage is going to win both of those battles.
I like Forrest, and I bet he plays this fight safe, but I think he gets overwhelmed by Rampage up against the cage sometime in the first or second round and the ref has to step in and save him.
I doubt cardio will be a factor in this fight whatsoever. Griffen cannot push Jackson as hard as the Hendo fight did.
I do not see where people can give the cardio edge to Forrest. I am not saying he is not a hard worker, but he has not gone five (tough) rounds before. Rampage has. Just for that reason alone I think you have to give the advantage to Rampage because he has proved it before.
Only way Forrest can win is if he use the muya thai clinch knees like Wanderlei and Mauricio.He is not going to sub,ko by punch or get a decision.Rampage by TKO round 3
The only way I see Forrest winning is by a head kick that Rampage didn’t see coming.
Or if Rampage gets caught in a submission and or if Forrest squeaks out a close decision.
“…both Jackson and Griffin have world class chins.” Whoa there sam, Jackson maybe, but Forrest has a world class chin? Really? Did you see him against Jardine? I’d say Forrest might have an average chin at best, but world class? Can’t agree with that buddy.
Ronin,
In title or Chuck Liddell fights, there never is a close decision. The judges always mark out for the Champ.
Cecil P. in da House!!
Nicely laid out argument Sam, but there are a couple of small points I disagree with. In the end, I agree that Jackson has the tools to come away a winner…
As far as stamina goes, Jackson proved in his title bout war with Dan Henderson he had the gas to go five frenetic rounds and still have something left in the tank. The pace hardly slowed in that fight and Rampage outworked the smaller but more active Hendo until the end. Griffin’s stamina is touted, but Rampage looked fresher in round 5 of his fight than Griffin in round 3 of the Rua fight. Griffin had nothing behind his punches by the third, including when Shogun was in completely defensive positions.
As far as chins go both guys are rockheads, but at varying degrees. Anyone can get caught and Jardine’s knockdown of Griffin was just that. Griffin has long proven he can take a punch and Jardine just happened to find the magic button. Rampage has that same button, but his seems a little harder to find. Silva knocked him out their second fight, but he took a Luby’s buffet of knees and soccer kicks in their first bout — as well as in his fight with Rua — without going out. Rocked, sure, but Griffin’s chin wouldn’t hold up to the same abuse.
A bit nitpicky, but in doing a lot of research on Jackson leading up to this fight I was surprised at how much I underestimated him. He’s one mean sumbitch and may prove to be as durably unbeatable as Anderson Silva…
I have to agree with the main sentiment here, mainly Ram, Dunlop and Hexrei.
Forrest is a guy you never count out, but Rampage has proven he has the cardio for 5 rounds of hard fighting, has good sub defense and KO power.
Adding one more factor in favor of Rampage, along with aforementioned ones, he loves being the champ. I think he really loves holding the belt, getting the attention and achieving the success he has in the UFC, that somewhat eluded him in Pride. Imo, someone is going to have to rip that belt away from him in devastating fashion, and I just don’t think Forrest is that guy.
Two factors that haven’t been mentioned. 1) Griffin is a genetic freak and huge for his weight class. Shogun looked tiny compared to him. In someways, Griffin has an akward style like Tim Sylvia, but much more fluid and balls out. I don’t think Rampage is going to be able to impose his game on Forest. 2) With Xtreme Couture on Forest’s side, he will have an impeccible game plan. In his last two fights, we saw a much more refined Forest clearly with Couture in his ear.
My perdiction is that you’re going to see Griffin have a great gameplan and do something completely unexpected like take down/GnP and end it in the 4 or 5 round.
@#11 Yeah, I think if Griffin has one really solid ace in his deck its Couture helping with his gameplan. That really does throw a monkey wrench into things.
Griffin is like Rudy in this fight, trying to take out a 300 lb. Notre Dame lineman for a spot on the team. Rampage’s only weakness against him is that he might be overconfident (see him guaranteeing that he’s going to lay a good old fashioned ass beating on Forrest.) Forrest is going to need the fight of his life just to make this competitive. There’s a good chance Rampage just goes in there and puts him away decisively in a couple minutes (a la Chuck).
That said, I think there’s a fairly good chance of Forrest actually having the fight of his life, since he does very well in the underdog position. I see him circling a lot and trying to stay away from any serious exchanges. Rampage will press the tempo and get a takedown, but Forrest will probably stay alive on the ground, at least until the second round. The problem is Forrest doesn’t hit hard enough to mix it up with Rampage once the fight gets in close quarters.
Griffin’s jits is pretty solid but I don’t think he can sub Rampage unless we wears him down tremendously, and how’s he going to do that if he’s the one on his bicycle all night? Rampage is going to be in great shape, so Forrest is going to need a miracle.
But I like this kind of fight, since it can bring out the best in an overachieving fighter like Griffin. It then becomes exciting just to see him stay alive, let alone win the fight. I suppose his best chance of taking the belt is to survive the first couple rounds and then eke out a split decision type victory by racking up points on his jab, sub attempts, and the support of the crowd, kind of like when Sugar Ray Leonard beat Hagler by avoiding serious exchanges and flurrying before the end of the round.
Rampage is a 10 to 1 favorite IMO, but I’m rooting for Forrest to fight out of a tree and keep it close.
whoop, whoop I’ll be in fight town USA over the 4th July weekend…. Laughlin, NV lol
Can’t wait to gamble on the fight card in the casino with all the old people and dirty bikers
War Page winning by KO!!
@ #10 I really don’t think you can compare Forrest vs. Rua and Jackson vs. Hendo when it comes to cardio, forrest and rua was an all out war that didn’t stop at all, hendo and jackson had some wait and catch your breath moments, that fight with rua would have gassed anybody outside of the 155’s, but i agree with most of the other points, i got rampage winning by ko in the 3rd.
Sam, good piece again. I guess you can say there isn’t much hype for this bout. However, we’ve know that this fight was going to happen since November or December, whenever they went public ya’ know. Now that it’s almost here, for me, it’s like a sigh of relief more so than anything and it’s about damn time.
Come Saturday, all of us will be itching for Buffner’s words of, “Iiiitttt’sssss Tiiiimmmme!!!. Granted, we aren’t hung over from Friday and needed a rest.
My money is on Rampage here because I am huge fan and have been for a long time. I don’t see him losing in the UFC anytime soon and he looks to have some the best coaching around that work’s for him. It has taken him a while to get here and he ain’t going no where fast.
Now if Forrest were to win. Although I would be surprised, I won’t be disappointed. He is a very, very hard worker and will have deserved everything he has earned. He would become the first homegrown TUF talent to acheive Championship status and that would be amazing. Matt Serra does but doesn’t count because he had already been in the UFC and his case is a little different.
I am very much looking forward to this Saturday nights card and it can’t come soon enough. It will be exciting, believe me. I’d like to see a who’s who of MMA stars and/or Celeb’s because it is well worth attending and a great place to get noticed.
Both Quinton and Forrest (along with the rest) have worked their asses off to get where they are today, give them their respect by attending or tuning in on PPV if you can.
Cheers!!!
Forrest may indeed use a Randy Couture style of fighting in this match–namely press the action and keep close enough to negate the big looping KO punch via Rampage. If he can constantly press Rampage against the cage and dirty box him while working for takedowns, Rampage might be frustrated by such a gameplan. It seems that Rampage likes fighters like Chuck Liddell who wait for him to storm in punching for the KO. Forrest needs to avoid giving him the room to do so.
The odds are still very great that Rampage will get off a bomb and it will go off in Forrest’s face, ending it quickly. But we should never underestimate the power of a good gameplan in MMA.
Brain speaking: Rampage should win this fight and I have put money on him winning this fight.
Gut speaking: I think I am gonna lose my money. Griffin shows over and over he shouldnt be counted out. He is the larger man and can take a bea