twitter google

Trading Punches: UFC 106 Preview and Predictions; The Main Card

ufc 106 2Join the FiveOuncesofPain crew as Managing Editor Cory Brady and the often outspoken David Andrest give their thoughts and predictions on this Saturday evening’s UFC 106 card.

UFC 106 will be taking place from the the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas on November 21, with the main card airing live on pay-per-view, and a portion of the preliminary action airing live on Spike TV just prior to the PPV broadcast.

In this edition of Trading Punches we’ll take an in depth look at the main card, including scheduled pay-per-view scraps of Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin, Josh Koscheck vs. Anthony Johnson, Luis Arthur Cane vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and more.

CLICK HERE to check out the preliminary portion of Trading Punches. Jacob Volkmann vs. Paulo Thiago, which has been shifted to the main portion due to Karo Parisyan‘s withdraw from his bout with Dustin Hazelett, can be found on the preliminary predictions.

As always feel free to respectively agree or disagree in the comment section below, and don’t talk about it, be about it; post your very own set of picks for the 5 Oz. community to analyze and ridicule.

Forrest Griffin vs. Tito Ortiz

David Andrest: This is an interesting fight for me. I always enjoy Tito, I always enjoy Forrest. For Tito, this fight will decide if he can be a contender, or if he will be relegated to “showcase” fights on the senior circut. For Forrest, it’s going to be the typical ” How will he bounce back” fight. I would mention the previous meeting but that is a stupid way to look at the fight. Both men should be different fighters, as Forrest has gained experience, and Tito has a new spine that allows him to train. What this fight comes down to for me is Ortiz. How good is the back? How good is his cardio? Has he evolved in any way as a fighter. Forrest is the type of fighter that gets hit, and gets hit alot. Honestly I’m never a fan of picking that type of fighter. All the heart in the world doesn’t stop Herb Dean from stepping in if Tito is on top on you dropping elbows on your bloody corpse. I would think Forrest would want to keep this fight on the feet using a mix of leg kicks and punches to out point Tito. ( very similar to the Rampage Jackson fight). This is a very winnable fight for both guys.

Despite my better judgment, I’m going to believe the hype, I think a healthy Tito gets this fight to the floor and stops Forrest. I’ve heard strong rumblings for a while that one of these fighters has a long standing back problem that needs to be repaired, and this time it’s not who you might think.

Winner: Tito Ortiz via TKO

Cory Brady: Such a tough fight to call because there’s really no telling which Tito is going to show up. If he shows up at 100%, which I don’t feel he has been for many years now, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be able to find a way to get this fight to the canvas and play the monster mash all over Forrest’s face with elbows like he did in their previous meeting with tremendous success. At the same time, lets not forget that this is the same Forrest that recently beat Rampage convincingly to claim the UFC’s light heavyweight strap; Something Tito hasn’t manged to pull off since he lost the title to Randy Couture at UFC 44. I basically see this fight being an instant replay of the pair’s first meeting, with the same result. Should be exciting though, no doubt about that.

Winner: Tito Ortiz via decision

Josh Koscheck vs. Anthony Johnson

David Andrest: GREAT MATCH-UP!  With that said, this fight is all on Koscheck to win. If Josh Koscheck the boxer shows up, it’s going to be a short night. Koscheck is a better wrestler and should be able to control the ground quite easily. Johnson is the more dynamic puncher, and training with  Cung Le  I would imagine he’ll bring his kicks to this fight. I just feel Koscheck is the better fighter and not by a little bit.  Koscheck has shown the ability to throw the interception, but I don’t think it will happen this time.  Koscheck is aware of Anthony Johnson, and is not looking past him, and frankly that is all it should take.

Winner: Josh Koscheck via decision

Cory Brady: My man David is absolutely right: GREAT MATCH-UP! I don’t know if any of you guys remember a little article I wrote in April of this year called “If I Was The UFC Matchmaker” where I called for this fight, but this one has been a long time coming for me. While sending any man or beast to La-La Land is definitely not beyond Johnson’s capability at any point in time, there’s no reason that Koscheck shouldn’t win this fight on paper. Johnson used to wrestle but Koscheck’s level is on an entire different level. If Kos chooses to take advantage of his one key advantage in this fight it should be his fight to lose.

Winner: Josh Koscheck via decision

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Luis Cane

David Andrest: Big fight, good fighters. Welcome to the UFC Rogerio. Cane is a blue chip prospect, and has made a steady climb up a division that is very deep.  Nogueira, is a vet, and a very skilled fighter with all the tools to hold a belt in the division.  Nogueira will make his debut in the octagon, and I think this fight will be an entertaining slugfest with Nogueira using superior boxing to take out the youngster Cane.

Winner: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira via TKO

Cory Brady: I have a good feeling this is going to turn into a Brazilian boxing match due to Cane’s desire and ability to keep the fight standing. Now on paper one would be quick to give the heavy handed Luis an edge in the striking department, but not so fast. Lil’ Nog is a former South American Games and Brazilian Championship title holder in boxing, along with taking home the bronze in the 2007 Pan American Games super heavyweight division. I see Nogueira edging out Cane with superior technical boxing in what promises to be a complete war with definite fight of the night potential

Winner: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira via decision

Amir Sadollah vs. Phil Baroni

David Andrest: If there is an MMA god , he will grant Baroni a moment in the sun here.  I try not to read too much into interviews, but I find myself increasingly depressed watching Baroni talk on camera. He seems a shell of his former self,  almost broken. With that said, Baroni  brings it everytime, with the question being  how much cardio did he pack for the trip. I have no doubt that Baroni has what it takes to take out Sadollah. Amir is going to have to weather a storm like he has never seen, the question is how long will it last. The longer this fight goes, the better it is for our TUF winner. If Amir can hang in longer than Baroni’s cardio, he can pull out the trademark  submission victory over a better fighter. Baroni is training out at AKA with some of the best fighters in the world, he should be prepared, and should KO Sadollah.

Winner: Phil Baroni via TKO

Cory Brady: It’s my opinion that C.B. Dollaway’s inexperience over a year ago made Amir look a lot better than he currently is in his still developing career. Sadollah’s stand-up game was exposed in a major was in his first round TKO defeat at the hands of John Hendricks during UFC 101, and it will be exposed again with the C4 fisted “NYBA”. Amir may hold an edge in the submission department but Baroni being the better wrestler should serve to keep the fight on the feet for as long as he chooses, which should be all night long. Bad match-up for Amir, great match-up for Baroni. Like most of Phil’s fights, don’t expect for this one to be anything less than a war for as long as it lasts.

Winner: “The Best Eva’!!!” (Baroni) via knockout

21 COMMENTS
  • Scott H. says:

    Trading Punches? You guy’s are just patting each other on the back! When was the last time any two MMA fans could agree on the outcome of four fights?

    I’m going to have to start the arguement.

    Unless Griffen really is nursing a bad back, he’ll be stuffing takedowns on the way to a 3rd round decision.

    I agree with Kos winning the fight, but don’t see it going the distance.

    Cane and Nog should be fight of the night, but I can’t decide who I think will win, I’ve changed my mind at least a half dozen times on this, and I’m still not sure… I’m thinking Nog, but I can’t seem to convince myself .

    Sadollah, 2nd round Sub.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 6 Thumb down 10

  • Makington says:

    Nice and short:
    Tito by decision (although I reallllly want Forrest to win)
    Koscheck by decision
    Nogueira by decision (If I could only watch one fight, definitely this one)
    Sadollah by submission

    I would have been voting Hazelett by submission but we all know what happened. Since Thiago/Volkmann has been moved to the main card I remain firm on my pick of Volkmann.

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 3

  • Swing Em says:

    Ortiz by TKO

    Johnson by KO

    Lil’ Nog by Decision

    Baroni by KO

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 5

  • David Andrest says:

    Scott H.: Trading Punches?You guy’s are just patting each other on the back!When was the last time any two MMA fans could agree on the outcome of four fights?

    No Kidding, I just KNEW Cory would take Forrest.

    eh sometimes it goes like that I guess

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1

  • BigDave says:

    Ok lets bring some logic to this situation. First off Ortiz has not one a fight since october of 2006 and has been on the shelf since may of 2008. Ring rust is going to be a huge factor for Ortiz in this fight and he is coming in against a guy with something to prove after his poor showing the last time out. Forrest will also be looking to avenge his loss to Ortiz in there first fight.

    Forrest by TKO rd 2

    Josh Koscheck is a wrestler who seems to have forgotten how to wrestle and if he does,nt remember quick Rumble is going to put him to sleep.Johnson is explosive on the feet and I see this fight ending violently.

    Johnson by KO rd1

    Lil, Nog vs Cane, this fight is going to be the human equivelent to rock’em sock’em robots. They are going to throw bombs at each other till one of them falls down. its hard to chose here but I am going to have to give the guy who has a better gas tank and IMO that is Lil Nog.

    Lil Nog by TKO rd 3

    As much as this one pains me I have to say that the meathead Baroni should have an easy night against Amir. Amir’s lack of a standup game will be his undoing and early. If Amir has a hope in hell of winning this fight which I personally would like to see it will be late in the second or in the third round where we all know The new york Jackass will be gassed out and easy pickings for a RNC.

    Baroni TKO rd 1

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 3

  • Angry Mike says:

    Griffin by decision. He’s better off his back than people realize, so Tito’s gnp may be neutralized, somewhat. And God knows Griffin can take a punch if it’s a standing war.

    Amir wins by gas out-induced heart failure. Seriously, if he can weather Baroni’s initial storm by moving around the Octagon, Baroni will be gassed by the end of the first round, shuffling by the end of the second, and staggering deliriously by the end of the third, possibly muttering to himself.

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

  • tybo1972 says:

    Forest by RNC 2nd rnd
    Kos by TKO 2nd
    Cane by TKO 1st
    Amir by sub 1st

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 2

  • edub says:

    Wow biggest story of the weekend is you guys agree on all the fights. Unanimous on Phil Baroni? Do you guys not remember the shots Amir absorbed from Matt Brown? Anywayz….

    I feel that Forrest has become a bad matchup for Tito because his td defense has gotten so good. I kinda think if TIto had at least one tune up fight for this he wouldve won, but he didnt.
    Forrest by SD

    What worries me for Koscheck in this fight is the way AJ has grown. Its been proven multiple times and just recently by Castillo on Roller that just because you dont have the best wrestling credentials you can still out wrestler a seasoned d1 competitor. Add in the fact that AJ hits much harder and will probably walk into the ring at at least 195lbs then you have a terrible matchup for Koscheck. I still will be rooting for Koscheck come fight night but with the wave of the new blood winning in the ww division(Daley over Kampman and Hardy over Swick) I just cant make a decision on this fight.
    Push(Ill make a decision after weigh ins)

    I was a big Cane supporter until Cantwell had a very close fight with him. Cantwell is no slouch but he just isnt a top tier fighter yet. IF Cane walks in and beats up Lil Nogs body with kicks and Knees hes got a shot. I just dont think he will.
    Lil Nog by sub

    Phil Baroni by tko. Whatt???? Amir has taken huge shots from people and kept going. His fight with Matt Brown on TUF is still one of the best stand up wars Ive seen. Phil Baroni is a good fighter and somewhat of a legend in our young sport. He might get a few good shots in, and a takedown or two
    but there is no way he wins this fight.
    Amir by whatever he wants within two rounds(Andrest feel free to call me out if the NYBA wins. I will begrudgingly change my sn to besteva!Imtheman)

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1

  • Cory Brady says:

    edub, I’m as big a Matt Brown fan as the next guy; he’s tougher than nails and brings it every time out; but imho Brown and Baroni aren’t even on the same planet as far as punching power goes. I feel like Baroni could knock out just about anyone with a single punch if it lands correctly, and Amir is no exception.

    Also, I’m sure you saw Amir’s last fight, and that was the main reason I ended up going with the NYBA on this one.

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

  • moosebaby02 says:

    HOLY CRAP I have to go with everything BigDave said lol
    now i have to get a LottoMax ticket

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

  • edub says:

    Cory Brady: edub, I’m as big a Matt Brown fan as the next guy; he’s tougher than nails and brings it every time out; but imho Brown and Baroni aren’t even on the same planet as far as punching power goes. I feel like Baroni could knock out just about anyone with a single punch if it lands correctly, and Amir is no exception.Also, I’m sure you saw Amir’s last fight, and that was the main reason I ended up going with the NYBA on this one.

    Cory definately saw the last fight, and I take it into account. I just dont think that fight was overt when the ref stopped it. I actually consider it one of the worsed stoppages of the year. Amir made a whole show of coming back from the edge of defeat on TUF and I definately think the ref couldve afforded more time.

    Now where Matt Brown and Baroni concern I gotta completely disagree. Phil Baroni was one of the hardest punchers in mma about 5 years ago. I dunno if you ve seen his last five fights but in only 2 he tkod people in. Even Olaf Alfonso who has been KOd reatedly throughout his career made it all 15 minutes with Phil. He just doenst have that explosive power anymore.

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

  • Rich S. says:

    Tito Ortiz via Unanimous Decision.
    Anthony Johnson via TKO r3.
    Luiz Cane via Unanimous Decision.
    Phil Baroni via TKO r2.

    I love Forrest Griffin. How can you dislike the guy? He doesn’t really have one great aspect in his game. He has decent striking, with no knockout power. He has a decent ground game without that many submission victories. Yet, he comes to fight every time, and normally wins. And I still think he probably should’ve won the first bout with Ortiz even with the 3rd round takedown, and would’ve won easily had the takedown been prevented.. But, I strongly believe Tito Ortiz is going to come back and make a solid run for the belt. His previous injuries have now healed and he says he’s doing better than ever. I think he’ll have his famous cardio back in this fight, and will push the pace for every second of those three rounds.

    This next one is hard for me. I hate picking against Koscheck. The guy never loses, barring GSP and a freak knockout. His wrestling will give ANY welterweight aside from GSP problems. But, that’s when he decides to use it. Lately he’s been on a Knockout run, ripping through guys on the feet..
    My original pick for this fight was Kos via Decision, because no matter how big, or heavy-handed AJ is, I don’t think many people at all can hang with Kos’ wrestling.. But, I came to my senses.. Kos is a wrestler at the core, but he wants to strike. He likes to strike. And the bad blood between these guys is going to make him want to beat AJ at his own game.. So, Kos is going to strike until he can’t anymore, and then shoot, by then he’ll be too hurt to complete it.. His solid chin will keep him in the fight for a while, but in the end, AJ’s hand will be raised while they’re telling Kos where he is..

    I want nothing more than to see Rogerio make an impressive UFC debut. But, Luis has been in this octagon for quite some time now, and he has absolutely worked some top competition. Often, we see guys fight out of character once they get in the octagon for the first time, and sadly, I think we’ll see that here.. Rogerio will probably do good early on, but I think a few body and leg kicks will slow him down, and help Cane have his way with him.. I’ll hope for the best from Rogerio, though..

    This bout makes ZERO sense.. You have a TUF winner, you know, those guys the UFC usually tries to protect for their first couple fights? And he’s coming off a 20 second KNOCKOUT LOSS, facing a famed KNOCKOUT ARTIST..
    Take a minute or two to find the sense in that. If you find anything, please tell me..
    This must be one of those “They know something we don’t” things..
    Why would they risk making their possibly weak-chinned TUF winner 0-2?
    And why would they bring back a good draw like Baroni, just to lose?
    I don’t know, I’m probably just confusing you further..
    Either way, Baroni is going to rock Amir’s world.. If he doesn’t dismantle him on the feet, he’s shown solid wrestling in his past couple bouts, and can win on the ground as well..

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1

  • David Andrest says:

    edub: (Andrest feel free to call me out if the NYBA wins. I will begrudgingly change my sn to besteva!Imtheman)

    Honestly edub, It’s not that I’m a big baroni fan, I just frankly don’t think Amir is very good ( at this point just way green) , and good point on the Matt Brown fight, but Baroni IMO hits way harder than Brown.

    As I said he needs to get it done early. Amir gets hit alot, and like forrest, I’m kinda done picking those guys when they have comparable opponents. If amir can stay in there longer than Phil’s gas tank, he’ll pull it off somehow. I just think Phil clips him early and often. and someone steps in and the world crys “early stoppage” once again.

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

  • Rich S. says:

    Amir/Hendricks was stopped pretty early, but Hendricks was hitting him with flush, unblocked shots and you could clearly see all of Amir’s joints buckling.. Surely, he would’ve been out in a couple seconds..

    And, I still think Baroni will take a TKO here, but I would imagine he’s going to come out harder and stronger than he has in a long time, seeing as how it’s his return to the “best eva” MMA promotion..
    He’s going to want to look great for the fans, and that could very easily empty his tank.. Which would allow Amir to pull off whatever kind of victory he wanted..

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

  • nate says:

    let the t-downs begin! forrest. rumble. little nog. amir. thiago. i also bet that atleast 7 out of the fights end in decisions. :-\

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1

  • edub says:

    Rich S.: Surely, he would’ve been out in a couple seconds..

    He was on his way to standing back up.

    If anyone disagrees just watch again. AMir was taking some flush shots and his legs buckled. But he got his bearings back and was on his way to standing back up when the ref jumped in.

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

  • Rich S. says:

    edub:
    He was on his way to standing back up.
    If anyone disagrees just watch again. AMir was taking some flush shots and his legs buckled. But he got his bearings back and was on his way to standing back up when the ref jumped in.

    Oh, I know he was on his way to standing back up..
    THAT’S WHY he would’ve gotten his switch flipped..
    He was trying to stand up with his hands on the ground, if I remember correctly..
    That left all the time in the world for the already standing Hendricks to throw wild hooks to his open head..

    For the record, I think Amir should’ve been given a bit more time, but it didn’t look like it was going to go well for him if he got it..

    I suppose I’ll watch that fight again though..

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0

  • Cory Brady says:

    edub:

    Now where Matt Brown and Baroni concern I gotta completely disagree. Phil Baroni was one of the hardest punchers in mma about 5 years ago. I dunno if you ve seen his last five fights but in only 2 he tkod people in. Even Olaf Alfonso who has been KOd reatedly throughout his career made it all 15 minutes with Phil. He just doenst have that explosive power anymore.

    I’ve seen all of Baroni’s fight’s since he knocked out Amar Suloev (similar names; coincidence? I don’t think so) at UFC 37, and it’s just my opinion that Baroni hasn’t lost an inch off his punching power. His Cage Rage knockout over Scott Jansen in 2008 was one of the hardest punches …..ever. That was a brutal knockout. Baroni may have lost a lot of things since we first saw him in the UFC, but I don’t feel like his ridiculous stupid punching power is one of them.

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

  • edub says:

    Cory Brady: (similar names; coincidence? I don’t think so)

    Now thats funny.

    Cory Brady: one of the hardest punches…ever.

    You mean Eva!

    Yea ah well. We’ll see tomorrow. I definately wouldnt mind seeing Baroni KO him and climb up the cage again. I just dont think itll happen.

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  • Forrest by decision. Sadly I just don’t see either fighter finishing each other. I think Forrest will stuff take downs AND mix up the striking to once again show that tito has NO standup. Unless he’s fighting Ken Shamrock

    Kos by decision or TKO: The only reason I put two options up is the TKO is contingent on whether or not AJ has the cardio to make it all three without givin up like he did against Clementi.

    Nog by tko.. No need to explain just wanna see this fight already.

    Amir by Sub or TKO..I dont see why everyone is bashing Amir’s standup….escpecially after a total early stop in his last fight. Amir will use his front kick to the new york bad ass’s stomach to keep him at bay….then he’ll tag him in the head with it and either stun him for a TKO or a sub….p.s. CB may have been overrated but Matt Brown isn’t and Amir survived him. after Baroni throws twenty punches he’ll gas.

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  • windstorm says:

    forrest –ud
    kos–ud
    amir–by really “why the f is phil baroni in the ufc”
    davis–ud
    rosholt–ud
    cain tko rd 3

    camoes and volkman win in big upsets

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

LEAVE A COMMENT!

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Follow 5OZ