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The Breakdown: Strikeforce-Miami Preview and Predictions.

After a brief layoff from what felt like weekly MMA events, we have a live card.

Strikeforce: Miami takes place this Saturday night live from the Bank Atlantic Center, in Sunrise, Florida.   With live television coverage beginning at 10pm ET (delayed on the west coast) on Showtime with live preliminary coverage of Jay Herion vs. Joe Riggs taking place on EASportsMMA.com at 9pm ET.

With the lion’s share of the media attention focused on Hershel Walker as he makes his mixed martial arts debut, many have overlooked what appears to be another solid card from the San Jose based Strikeforce.

So without further delay, lets breakdown the main card, cut though the hype and get an idea of what we can expect this Saturday.  .

PRELIMINARY FIGHT (broadcast on EASportsMMA.com)

Jay Hieron vs. Joe Riggs

It’s been nothing short of an interesting ride for Hieron, with expectations that he would be the one fighting Nick Diaz for the welterweight title falling through to finding himself on the undercard.  Hieron appears to be rolling with the punches, and with his bout being broadcast live and free on EASportsMMA.com he and Riggs have the potential to have the most watched fight on the entire card.

The Fight: Riggs enters the fight on the heels of a 4 fight winning streak, while Hieron is unbeaten in his last 6.  Oddsmakers have Hieron as a clear favorite in this fight, and I tend to agree with them.   I think Hieron is slightly better in all areas. Riggs however will not go quietly into the night, he is not without the skill and ability to pull off a win.  There is a reason the hardcore audience was appalled by this card not making the television broadcast. It’s a well matched fight with two talented fighters.

Winner:  Jay Hieron  Decsion

Greg Nagy vs. Herschel Walker

What can be said about this fight that you haven’t heard a million times over?  Herschel Walker is a great guy,  a promotional machine, and whatever he is being paid by Strikeforce is not enough.  Walker has brought an unbelievable amount of attention to this card, making the promotional rounds at a break neck pace.  However one question remains unanswered, can he fight?   Greg Nagy has received a modest amount of attention coming into this fight,  a win over Walker will put him alongside Seth Petruzelli in MMA  folklore.

The Fight: With such limited information on Nagy ( a 1-1 record) and nothing on Walker, predicting this fight becomes very interesting.  Following the media hype, and memories of a great football player, the odds on this fight are nothing short of out of hand.  Walker comes in as a HUGE favorite (-350)  based on…………….well no one knows the reason. Most would speculate Strikeforce is not trying to set Walker up for failure, a difficult task when you don’t know what he brings to the cage.   If Walker wins this fight I have a feeling we will see 3 sloppy rounds headed to a decision.   However, I’m going to pick Nagy to win.  He knows what it feels like to fight, and he hasn’t been traveling the country for the last 2 weeks doing 20 interviews a day.

Winner: Greg Nagy  TKO Round 2

Bobby Lashley vs. Wes Sims

And the award for worst handling of a public relations of 2010 goes to…Strikeforce for their colossally bad handling of naming an opponent for Lashley. To say I’m not excited to watch this fight is an understatement.  With what should have been set in stone 2 months ago, Strikeforce went through a vetting of names to find an opponent for Lashley, finally settling on Wes Sims just under 2 weeks prior to the event.

The Fight: The last time we saw Wes Sims fight he was gassing out in the first round, and losing to Justin Wren on The Ultimate Fighter 10.  Lashley comes in to this fight with a perfect professional record with 4 wins over questionable opposition.  With Sims training for years with some of the best wrestlers in the sport, I don’t expect Lashley to out wrestle Sims much before the  third minute of Round 1.  Honestly, Lashley is going to out athlete Sims on his way to a first round stoppage.  I fully expect him to be sold by the announce team as the next superstar, but I will reserve judgment until he finally takes a step upward in competition. The odds on this fight are comedy gold  showing Lashley as much as a ( -1500) favorite in this fight almost tempting me to throw down a few miracle dollars on Sims. ( that is not a typo)

Winner: Bobby Lashley Tko  Round 1

Robbie Lawler vs. Melvin Manhoef

After having his last fight fall though at the last minute Robbie Lawler was vocal about not being pleased . With a prospect of a new baby on the way, Lawler agreed to fight Melvin Manhoef, a brutal Dutch striker with more than enough skill and power to KO anyone in the sport on a moments notice.

The Fight: In my mind there is only one question that needs to be answered.  Is Robbie Lawler coming into this fight with the ill advised plan of standing with Manhoef ?   He says he is.  Lawler has a decided advantage on the floor against Manhoef, must like the rest of the mma universe.  Is he really on standing and throwing with a man who will knock him out?  Will foolish pride cause him to gamble and keep the fight in the one and only area that can pose a danger to him?   I’m not going to be surprised when he does, and it appears I’m not alone.  Manhoef enters this fight as a modest favorite.  Don’t blink, one minute they will be doing the dance, the next someone is going to be sleeping.

Winner:  Melvin Manhoef  KO Round 1

Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos vs. Marloes Coenen

It’s been very easy for me to sing the praises of Cyborg Santos over the past year and a half. She is an absolute monster in the women’s division brings and aggression and power to WMMA that most never imagined possible.  There was a level of confidence in selecting her to defeat Gina Corano that doesn’t exist here.

The Fight: Coenen is a very good technical striker, and good submission fighter.  I honestly feel from a technical standpoint she holds an advantage on both the feet and the ground.  However, in the world of WMMA the power advantage of Cyborg in most cases is going to be way to large a hurdle to overcome. If Coenen can stay patient, and stay out of trouble early she can make a fight of it.   We have seen Cyborg get tired while beating the ever loving crap out of her opponent.  It is in this moment Coenen would have the best chance to pull off the upset.

Winner:  Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos  TKO  early Round 2

Nick Diaz vs. Marius Zaromskis (for vacant welterweight title)

The Fight: Zaromskis is a certified badass.  The DREAM  welterweight champion had one of the best 2009’s of any fighter, with 4 victories ( two by highlight reel head kick). Many are expecting a high flying match up with Diaz trying to avoid a high kick to secure the victory. I’ll be honest,  I don’t think this fight is going to be particularly competitive.  Diaz is going to take Zaromskis apart, it will be up to him to decide if he prefers to punch him in the face 400 times on the way to decision, or take it to the ground and end the fight there.  Needless to say, Nick Diaz is my lock of the night.

Winner: Nick Diaz submission Round 3

12 COMMENTS
  • hindsightufuk says:

    scrap the Walker and Lashley fights, add Jay and Joe to the main portion and its a dope card.

    I love Nick Diaz, but i fear for him tomorrow night, i think Marius is being under estimated some what

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 6

  • xtreme_machine says:

    I can’t wait forR obbie Lawler vs. Melvin Manhoef

    that is going to be a nonstop WAR

    Well-Done. Thumb up 18 Thumb down 0

  • fanoftna33 says:

    I really like Cyborg but I am going to pick Coenen here due to her experience level and better technique. I think by the end of round 3 we will see a very tired Cyborg(think of Phil Baroni anytime he fights for more then 4 minutes) and Coenen will take over with a 4th round submission.
    Lawler is going to say whatever he feels will make people watch the fight but we all know he is taking Manhoef down almost before the ref says to fight.
    Diaz over Zaromskis here but it will be a hell of a fun fight to watch. Every time people think Diaz will be overpowered or outstruck he completly surprises everyone. I do not think I will ever pick against Diaz.

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 6

  • Bad Monkey says:

    Holy crap! I just saw the pics of Wes Sims at the weigh ins. I think they called him at the Pizza Hut buffet for this fight. He was funny on TUF, but he just doesn’t look like he’s been training much. This will be a very short and ugly fight, and a cheap win for Lashley. Like David said, the announcers will make Lashley out to be the next superstar after this fight.

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 1

  • Rich S. says:

    Hieron via Decision
    Walker via TKO r2
    Lashley via Choke r1
    Lawler via KO r2
    Cyborg via TKO r2
    Diaz via TKO r3

    1. Pretty much the same feelings as Mr. Andrest on this one.. I think Hieron is a little bit better everywhere, but I don’t think he’s going to steamroll Riggs.. It’ll be a good fight, in which Hieron takes a decision victory..

    2. Herschel Walker got this fight for some reason, and I can only assume that that reason wasn’t to be made a fool of.. I know NOTHING about Nagy, but I’m sure he’s someone that some weak wrestling and a little bit of punching power can stop.. Otherwise Herschel wouldn’t be fighting him..

    3. Does this fight even need an analysis? Wes Sims’ career is practically a joke at this point.. What was his nickname back in the day, again? The Project? What was the project? See how much pain and suffering one man can endure over the course of 10+ years? Wes will probably still be fighting when he’s 75 years old..

    4. I’m very surprised at how quickly Robbie Lawler was counted out of this fight.. A month or two ago people were begging for this fight, now every one thinks it’s going to be over within 30 seconds.. And what’s the reasoning? Robbie got KO’d by Diaz that one time? Sure, he did.. Little did we know back then Diaz would go on to win alot more fights via KO, also, Robbie is a COMPLETELY different fighter now.. His punches are more technical and powerful than ever.. For those who can get past the Diaz KO, try to remember that Lawler practically laughed in Scott Smith’s face after taking some of his hardest shots, for a total of 5 rounds.. There will certainly be a knockout here… But I’m calling Robbie.. Expect to see the contrary of what you’re all thinking.. I say they come out, feel each other out, bang a little bit, enter the second round with a better feel for each other, and BAM! Someone goes down.. The winner of this fight is the one who defends, and doesn’t get careless.. I happen to think that will be Lawler..

    5. Diaz is a beast.. Zaromskis is beast.. This will be an awesome fight but I don’t see how Diaz loses.. As long as he’s “ON”, he’s got a granite chin, hard strikes, and the world’s best submissions.. I highly doubt this fight hits the ground.. Diaz loves to strike and now he’s got a big test.. I say Diaz takes a lot of early punishment, but wears Zaromskis down and finishes him off late..

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 5

  • robby says:

    this is going to be an awesome card ithese are my picks heiron dec walker dec lasley sub 2nd coenon dec lawler gnp3rd diaz sub4th i could be wrong but these are my picks

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 2

  • Makington says:

    Lol, people don’t like when you bet against Manhoef Rich.

    How dare you have a different opinion!

    I thought it was well thought out, although I personally am pulling for Melvin.

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  • monkeynuts says:

    @David Andrest
    You obviously have great respect and admiration for Christine Santos. I share this opinion! I think she is doing great things to break down barriers and advancing the sport for women. Since she and others are working hard to be seen as equals, the use of term “WMMA” brings negative connotations. That “W” implies that she is in second class or even a different sport all together. She’s a great fighter, an MMA fighter… not a WMMA fighter.

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  • Angry Mike says:

    Some predictions:

    Hieron beats Riggs. Everyone says that Riggs is a monster in the gym, but he’s rarely demonstrated that in a fight. And he’s had injuries. Hieron is no kid himself, but I think he’s mentally and physically tougher. Riggs rarely goes the distance for whatever reason, so I’ll have to go with Hieron by tko, probably in the late second round.

    Nagy v. Walker. I lose this fight by ko. Either it bores me to death before the end of the second round, or it’s such a joke that I piss my pants and have a heart attack from laughing so hard, probably before the end of the first round.

    Lashley v. Sims. Ever heard the phrase “sacrificial lamb?’ Apparently Sims hasn’t either. If he’s lucky, his conditioning is so bad that he passes out from oxygen debt before Lashley has a chance to pull off any of his limbs.

    Lawler v. Manhoef. Lawler is a striker. Manhoef destroys other strikers, even those who are substantially bigger. His MMA losses are by submission. If Lawler tries to stand with Manhoef, he will lose by decapitation by strikes. The only question is how many rows back Lawler’s head will land.

    Cyborg v. Coenen. At this end of this fight, which will be in the first round, Cyborg will yell about a horseshoe in Coenen’s ass, having a Coors Lite, and getting on the wife later in the evening. She’s the toughest guy in women’s MMA.

    Diaz v. Zaromkis . An interesting match up. Zaromkis has been on a tear, but Diaz is more experienced and tough as nails. Diaz by tko or ko, probably in the third.

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

  • BigDave says:

    Mr. Andrest I was all ready to agree with all your picks then saw your foolhardy pick and comments in the diaz/zaromskis fight. Apperently you have gone threw 2009 with blinders on. Diaz Is a gifted athlete I’ll give him that but his lack of respect and dedication to the sport leaves a sour taste in my mouth. As for Zaromskis, this dude is scary good. did nothing but destroy people in the last year and I predict that tonight we will see much the same as I dont see diaz getting out of the first round.

    But agree to disagree.

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 1

  • David Andrest says:

    BigDave: Mr. Andrest I was all ready to agree with all your picks then saw your foolhardy pick and comments in the diaz/zaromskis fight. Apperently you have gone threw 2009 with blinders on. Diaz Is a gifted athlete I’ll give him that but his lack of respect and dedication to the sport leaves a sour taste in my mouth. As for Zaromskis, this dude is scary good. did nothing but destroy people in the last year and I predict that tonight we will see much the same as I dont see diaz getting out of the first round.But agree to disagree.  

    By all means come back to gloat or come back and take the abuse!! :)

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  • David Andrest says:

    As I said, didn’t belong in the cage with him. Lock of the night , is lock of the night for a reason.

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

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