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The Breakdown: UFC 110 preview and predictions.

UFC 110: Nogueira vs. Velasquez” takes place this Sunday  live from  Acer Arena in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. FiveOuncesofPain is here to provide you with the breakdown and predictions of this weekend’s card.

UFC 110, will  mark the UFC’s debut in Australia. The event is available on Pay Per view and will air LIVE in North America  on  Saturday  starting at 10pm ET.

So without further delay, enough with the sales pitch on and with the show.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Cain Velasquez

When I’m asked by people how I make my selections while picking fights, the first thing I tell people is the paths to victory.  This fight for me is a classic example of a “paths to victory” pick.

Cain Velasquez is by all accounts a blue chip, top of the line……….prospect.  Yeah I said it.  Prospect.   Having 7 professional fights with not a top contender in sight, I still have Velasquez on the prospects list, despite what the pundits would like to try and sell me.

With the biggest win in his career being a decision win over Cheick Kongo,  Velasquez comes into this fight with more UFC generated hype than one man could possibly live up to.  The fact is in his short career, Velasquez appears to have one path to victory.  Takedown Nogueira, use enough ground an pound to keep the fight from being stood up and manage to avoid submissions in the process.

Can he do it?  Sure.  Cain has an incredible ability to  takedown fighters and land in side control.  It’s quite amazing to watch.  I believe this will be the deciding factor in this fight.  Will Cain Velasquez be able to keep side control on  Nogueira.

What needs to be said about Nogueira?  He is second best heavyweight the sport has ever seen.  He has fought top competition his entire career.  And while I’m not going to go too crazy and say Velasquez has NO shot to win this fight, the fact Nogueira is an underdog is simply laughable.

With the exception of wresting, he is clearly better in all areas of the sport, and has multiple paths to victory.  He is proven against top competition, and the short list of fighters that hold a W over Nogueira are all champions and legends of the sport.

Based on experience, and the fact that Velasquez has never fought an opponent with a ground game (let alone the best ground game in the division), I’m going to pick Nogueira to win this fight via submission.

Michael Bisping vs. Wanderlei Silva

I hate this fight for a number of reasons, not least of which is the fact I seem to change my mind on an hourly basis.

I look for Bisping to try and stand with Silva until he gets hit.  Let’s not forget, he is coming off a victory over Denis Kang.  But if we remember Kang was able to put Bisping in trouble early before folding like a lawn chair. Wanderlei Silva is not Denis Kang.  On the surface it appears Bisping should have the tools to win this fight, however I expect him to play with fire one too many times and get burnt.   I believe Silva will catch Bisping with a big shot and have a successful debut at middleweight.

George Sotiropoulos vs. Joe Stevenson

Since moving to Greg Jackson’s, Stevenson has looks like a new version of his old self.  He seems to have taken his game back to basics, and this will serve him well against Sotiropoulos.  George is a promising fighter with good skills; I just think this is too large a leap in competition.  Look for Joe Daddy to lock on a choke or grind out a dominant victory.

Ryan Bader vs. Keith Jardine

This is a no lose fight for Bader.  If he beats Jardine, people will speak of him with the upper crust of the division.  If he doesn’t, he’ll see exactly where his game needs to improve.  The funny thing about Bader is you can’t really tell where he stands, he is clearly too good for the lower level fighters in the division; however the jump from the bottom to the top of 205 is drastic.  The UFC’s light heavyweight division is really thin at mid level talent.

Jardine is a funny fighter as well.  The man has a habit of winning fights he shouldn’t, and losing fights he probably should have won. (On paper)  He stands in very rare company firmly at the middle of the division.  The  Clay Guida of 205.

I can only see two things happening in this fight.  Bader with a quick  KO,  or Bader grinding Jardine.  The only point of interest in Jardine’s favor is Bader’s questionable cardio.  If the fight goes into the final round, will Bader have used up all his gas winning the first two rounds and get caught???

I’m  picking  Ryan Bader via KO  early in round 2.

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Anthony Perosh

Are you kidding me??   Guess not.   Ok  where to start, a Cro Cop win tells me nothing.   For those not so familiar with  Anthony Perosh. He was the victim of a Boxing clinic at the hands of Jeff Monson at UFC:61.  ( No that wasn’t a typo) .

The only thing there is look for in this fight is the number of groin shots and eye pokes that seem to plague  Filipovic  fights of late.  The over under on shots to the apple bag is 2………I’ll take the over.

Winner:  Cro Cop  KO

Don’t be shy,  tell me who you are taking and why.

16 COMMENTS
  • Makington says:

    I realize right now that I’m being the black sheep of this card, and I am picking mostly upsets, and mostly on some weird gut feeling. Please do not hate too hard haha.

    Velasquez by decision
    Bisping by decision
    Stevenson by TKO.
    Bader by TKO
    Cro Cop by some form of KO.

    I have a strange feeling that Velasquez’s GnP will be a bit too frenetic for Nogueira and he will be just a little bit too slow in setting up subs to keep up with Cain. I also feel like Bisping won’t want to stand with Wanderlei for any longer than he needs to. He knows his chin isn’t invincible and he wants this win bad. I agree with Stevenson for basically the same reason, too big of a jump too fast. I think the Bader/Jardine fight will be very competitive with a slight edge for Jardine before Bader scores the upset shot that puts Keith out. Finally there isn’t much question about Cro Cop. Over the hill he may be, but he should still be able to win this fight even if one of his limbs fall off tonight.

    Now I realize that I am picking the underdog in almost every fight so I would never bet on these odds, I just have a feeling this is how it will go.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 8 Thumb down 17

  • Jak says:

    “Cain Velasquez is by all accounts a blue chip, top of the line……….prospect. ”

    Exactly. I hate that everybody either overrates him or writes him off as having no power.

    7 fights is nothing. I couldn’t imagine fighting the legendary Big Nog in only my 7th pro fight.

    Win or lose, this is my most anticipated fight until the SF card or Machida/Rua.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 8

  • retrofitting123 says:

    Makington: I realize right now that I’m being the black sheep of this card, and I am picking mostly upsets, and mostly on some weird gut feeling. Please do not hate too hard haha.Velasquez by decisionBisping by decisionStevenson by TKO.Bader by TKOCro Cop by some form of KO.I have a strange feeling that Velasquez’s GnP will be a bit too frenetic for Nogueira and he will be just a little bit too slow in setting up subs to keep up with Cain. I also feel like Bisping won’t want to stand with Wanderlei for any longer than he needs to. He knows his chin isn’t invincible and he wants this win bad. I agree with Stevenson for basically the same reason, too big of a jump too fast. I think the Bader/Jardine fight will be very competitive with a slight edge for Jardine before Bader scores the upset shot that puts Keith out. Finally there isn’t much question about Cro Cop. Over the hill he may be, but he should still be able to win this fight even if one of his limbs fall off tonight.Now I realize that I am picking the underdog in almost every fight so I would never bet on these odds, I just have a feeling this is how it will go.  (Quote)

    agreed on all picks,especially cain by decision. no other method though.if it were 5rds ,i might choose differently

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 8

  • retrofitting123 says:

    matter of fact the betting line has nog as the underdog on junkie

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 6 Thumb down 12

  • retrofitting123 says:

    how could you neg 1 me on pure fact.cain is -150 on the books -look it up

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 12

  • crane_style says:

    I agree 100% that Nogueira should not be the underdog, but I still think Cain will get the victory. He will be able to use his wrestling ability to stay away from Nogueira’s submissions and superior hand speed will get him a TKO.

    Silva could indeed put Bisping to sleep early, but I just don’t see that happening. It’s Silva first cut to 185, and in spite of some of the things he says, Bisping is no dummy. He’ll want to take the fight into the later rounds to test Silva’s cardio. Bisping will tire him out and submit Wanderlei.

    Stevenson will be too much for George Sotiropoulos, although I think the fight could be closer than most people think. Joe Daddy by decision.

    Bader is an up and comer, but if Jardine doesnt win this fight, his career in the UFC will be in jeopardy, so his back is to the wall (fence?). I think Keith will frustrate Bader and grind out a victory in my pick for upset of the night.

    Cro Cop against who? Seems like the UFC is tossing Mirko a tomato can to beat up so they can keep him around as a gate keeper for one or two more fights. Mirko to win by TKO, and then hopefully do the smart thing and retire.

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 6

  • JollyDV says:

    Nogueira
    Wandy
    Jardine
    Joe Daddy
    Cro Cop

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 5

  • Cain Vs. Nog:
    Nog by cracking Cain upside his head, Cain then shoots like he did on Kongo and Nog grabs his neck and ends it by either guillotine, anaconda, or D’arce. If Kongo could survive under Cain for three rounds, I see no reason why Nog can’t get out from under him or reverse him. Cain kept dominant positions on Kongo but he couldn’t hold him in one place for more than a few seconds and I see Nog being able to escape, reverse or lock a submission on Cain. I think Cain will be a champion one day, just not in 2010.

    Nog by sub or TKO round 2

    ps and let’s not forget what happened last time a “Top 10 contender” got into the ring with one of the Nog bros, he got knocked out before ever really mounting an offense(Luiz Cane anyone?)
    I see this being a similar situation.

    Bisping Vs. Wanderlei
    I love this fight, I really do. Bisping like him or not has never quit in a fight and never stopped trying to get the win. That’s probably why he has only two losses on his career, a split to a former 205 champion and a KO by a legend. Wandy wants to win everytime but more often then not its more about his performance. I hope Wandy gets that clinch and repeats what he did to Rampage in the second fight(which would be so AWESOME with Bisping falling face first into the cage like Rampage fell through the ropes!) but I’m scared of Bisping duckin in and out and not lettin Wandy land those looping sloppy punches.

    Bisping Via UD

    Stevenson Vs. Sotiropoulos
    Another time where experience plays the biggest factor. Joe Daddy is just like Jardine, the perfect example of an upper middle contender. He falls short and gets mauled by guys like Florian or Penn, he wins against tough vets and mid level contenders like Diaz and Spencer. I think it just hinges on whether or not Joe is on or off. I agree the level jump is too much but if George rises to the occasion it could be a great fight.
    Joe Via UD.

    Bader Vs. Jardine
    Very interesting, Bader coming up a few notches in competition and Jardine needing a win worse than ever. Bader’s wrestling and striking power are SICK but his “boxing clinic” against Eric Schafer was decent striking vs. a not so decent striker. Bader may clip Jardine in the first but if it gets that first five minutes I see Bader being wore out from trying to control a terribly hard to hold down vet that THRIVES on wars. Keith is a kick boxing grind artist. He doesn’t normally finish guys but he’s always trying to and he is just too good at keeping guys off their rythm when he fights them. Sorry Bader, still wanna see you succeed.

    Cro Cop Vs. Perosh
    DAMN IT! When i saw Big Ben and Cro Cop were fighting each other i was STOKED. I figured the classic technical striker against the big brawler. This could be so entertaining. Alas someone had to get injured and hurt this card and though I dont mean this in a bad way, but at least it was Rothwell and not Nog, Cain, Bisping or Wandy. If Cro Cop comes out to stalk Perosh and put on his normal striking clinic they’ll finally have a real left head kick highlight reel for cro cop in the octagon that doesn’t involve his foot being rendered crooked under him. If he comes in just not caring this’ll be alot of standing around after a few failed attempts at highlight KO’s.

    Cro Cop LHK KO round 1.

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 5

  • submit662266 says:

    Nog v. Cain: I see Cain’s strength and speed as his advantages. Nog’s experience, his intelligence, and his superior arsenal of weapons to win a fight will be too much for Velasquez. Nog via guillotine, late rd 1.

    Bisping v. Silva: I think Bisping is the MW’s edition of Keith Jardine: tough, scrappy, won’t quit. None of us can really forget what Wandy did to Jardine though. I think this ends much the same way. Bisping out cold in the middle of rd 2.

    As for the rest of them, Jardine via s.d; Joe Daddy via ground and pound stoppage and Cro Cop via TKO.

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 3

  • retrofitting123: how could you neg 1 me on pure fact.cain is -150 on the books -look it up  (Quote)

    and its like an early stoppage or a bad decision, We’re not thumbs downing you, we’re thumbs downing the fact.

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 2

  • retrofitting123 says:

    makes sense

    superdavenorcal: and its like an early stoppage or a bad decision, We’re not thumbs downing you, we’re thumbs downing the fact.  (Quote)

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1

  • hindsightufuk says:

    i’m really forward to seeing just how good George Sotiropoulos can be against top competition, he has awesome BJJ and decent boxing, really forward to this

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

  • Richard Stabone says:

    Winners:

    Velasquez – I have a ton of respect for Nog, and he’ll be a huge step up in competition for Cain, but I dont see Cain losing until he gets matched up with Brock down the road.

    Wanderlei – Bisping’s bounce-back victory of Kang (after being KO’d by Hendo) really impressed me but he’s still an overhyped fighter that Silva should be able to lay out on the canvas; it’ll just be a matter of which round he catches him.

    Joe Daddy – He’ll grind out a victory.

    Jardine – Hope I’m wrong here, as it’d be more interesting to have another fighter keep climbing the ranks and remain undefeated, but I don’t see Bader getting by Jardine. Bader still seems a little awkward/unpolished in the cage as he continues to devleop his MMA skillset.

    Cro Cop – I don’t know anything about his opponent, but if the snowman outboxed him… uh, yeah. Cro Crop may be washed up, but there’s no reason for him to not still be able to put away a scrub like this.

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

  • Rich S. says:

    1. Velasquez via Decision
    2. Bisping via Decision
    3. Bader via TKO r2
    4. Stevenson via TKO r3
    5. Cro Cop via KO r1

    1. Nogueira is a legend of the sport, and I find him better than Cain on the ground AND on the feet.. But, so far, every time I have bet against Cain, I’ve been proven horribly, horribly wrong.. He’s getting better and better each fight and he KNOWS that this is the fight of his life.. I wouldn’t be surprised in the least to see Nogueira knock Cain out, or submit him, but this is a pick I just have to make..

    2. I want nothing more than for Wandy to make a successful debut at Middleweight, and it would be even greater if it were a brutal knockout.. But, it’s not going to come as easily as a lot of you think.. A lot of the comments hear include statements suggesting that Wandy will win via brutal knockout.. Can you tell me the last time Wandy got a brutal knockout? Sure, two years ago against the ever-so-weak-chinned Jardine.. And before that? 2006.. Wandy was once a cerebral monster, but things just aren’t the same today.. His NUMBER ONE KEY TO VICTORY HERE is the muay thai clinch.. If he doesn’t attempt to utilize that, I see Bisping sailing through to a decision with counter punches..

    3. Honestly, I think Jardine is a better fighter than Bader, and by all means he SHOULD WIN THIS FIGHT.. But, I don’t think the powers that be would give Bader a fight like this if they didn’t see something special in him.. I have to call Bader here..

    4. Stevenson’s striking wins him this fight.. In Sotiro’s last fight, we saw his boxing was crisp, but his defense was practically nonexistent.. He took unnecessary, unblocked shots to the face on multiple occasions.. I don’t think he needs any help on the ground, but if his striking hasn’t improved, Stevenson is going to clip him at some point and follow through on the ground with a TKO..

    5. At this point in Cro Cop’s career I wouldn’t be surprised to see him lose here.. But, apparently Perosh is a ground fighter? (I haven’t seen him fight).. I say Cro Cop chases him down, and as long as he doesn’t get careless, he’ll put him away with punches late in the 1st..

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 2

  • Makington says:

    Good picks Rich ;)

    You spent the 25 minutes I was too lazy to spend writing out the exact reasons why I picked those guys.

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

  • crane_style says:

    Wow. That was a difficult one to call. Did anyone go better than 3-2?

    Agree or Disagree: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

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