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The Breakdown: UFC 110 preview and predictions.

UFC 110: Nogueira vs. Velasquez” takes place this Sunday  live from  Acer Arena in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. FiveOuncesofPain is here to provide you with the breakdown and predictions of this weekend’s card.

UFC 110, will  mark the UFC’s debut in Australia. The event is available on Pay Per view and will air LIVE in North America  on  Saturday  starting at 10pm ET.

So without further delay, enough with the sales pitch on and with the show.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Cain Velasquez

When I’m asked by people how I make my selections while picking fights, the first thing I tell people is the paths to victory.  This fight for me is a classic example of a “paths to victory” pick.

Cain Velasquez is by all accounts a blue chip, top of the line……….prospect.  Yeah I said it.  Prospect.   Having 7 professional fights with not a top contender in sight, I still have Velasquez on the prospects list, despite what the pundits would like to try and sell me.

With the biggest win in his career being a decision win over Cheick Kongo,  Velasquez comes into this fight with more UFC generated hype than one man could possibly live up to.  The fact is in his short career, Velasquez appears to have one path to victory.  Takedown Nogueira, use enough ground an pound to keep the fight from being stood up and manage to avoid submissions in the process.

Can he do it?  Sure.  Cain has an incredible ability to  takedown fighters and land in side control.  It’s quite amazing to watch.  I believe this will be the deciding factor in this fight.  Will Cain Velasquez be able to keep side control on  Nogueira.

What needs to be said about Nogueira?  He is second best heavyweight the sport has ever seen.  He has fought top competition his entire career.  And while I’m not going to go too crazy and say Velasquez has NO shot to win this fight, the fact Nogueira is an underdog is simply laughable.

With the exception of wresting, he is clearly better in all areas of the sport, and has multiple paths to victory.  He is proven against top competition, and the short list of fighters that hold a W over Nogueira are all champions and legends of the sport.

Based on experience, and the fact that Velasquez has never fought an opponent with a ground game (let alone the best ground game in the division), I’m going to pick Nogueira to win this fight via submission.

Michael Bisping vs. Wanderlei Silva

I hate this fight for a number of reasons, not least of which is the fact I seem to change my mind on an hourly basis.

I look for Bisping to try and stand with Silva until he gets hit.  Let’s not forget, he is coming off a victory over Denis Kang.  But if we remember Kang was able to put Bisping in trouble early before folding like a lawn chair. Wanderlei Silva is not Denis Kang.  On the surface it appears Bisping should have the tools to win this fight, however I expect him to play with fire one too many times and get burnt.   I believe Silva will catch Bisping with a big shot and have a successful debut at middleweight.

George Sotiropoulos vs. Joe Stevenson

Since moving to Greg Jackson’s, Stevenson has looks like a new version of his old self.  He seems to have taken his game back to basics, and this will serve him well against Sotiropoulos.  George is a promising fighter with good skills; I just think this is too large a leap in competition.  Look for Joe Daddy to lock on a choke or grind out a dominant victory.

Ryan Bader vs. Keith Jardine

This is a no lose fight for Bader.  If he beats Jardine, people will speak of him with the upper crust of the division.  If he doesn’t, he’ll see exactly where his game needs to improve.  The funny thing about Bader is you can’t really tell where he stands, he is clearly too good for the lower level fighters in the division; however the jump from the bottom to the top of 205 is drastic.  The UFC’s light heavyweight division is really thin at mid level talent.

Jardine is a funny fighter as well.  The man has a habit of winning fights he shouldn’t, and losing fights he probably should have won. (On paper)  He stands in very rare company firmly at the middle of the division.  The  Clay Guida of 205.

I can only see two things happening in this fight.  Bader with a quick  KO,  or Bader grinding Jardine.  The only point of interest in Jardine’s favor is Bader’s questionable cardio.  If the fight goes into the final round, will Bader have used up all his gas winning the first two rounds and get caught???

I’m  picking  Ryan Bader via KO  early in round 2.

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Anthony Perosh

Are you kidding me??   Guess not.   Ok  where to start, a Cro Cop win tells me nothing.   For those not so familiar with  Anthony Perosh. He was the victim of a Boxing clinic at the hands of Jeff Monson at UFC:61.  ( No that wasn’t a typo) .

The only thing there is look for in this fight is the number of groin shots and eye pokes that seem to plague  Filipovic  fights of late.  The over under on shots to the apple bag is 2………I’ll take the over.

Winner:  Cro Cop  KO

Don’t be shy,  tell me who you are taking and why.