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The Other Odds – “UFC 129: St. Pierre vs. Shields”

Any other site can give you fight predictions disguised as honest betting advice, but I prefer to absolve myself from any and all responsibility for your financial gains or losses. That’s why I make up my own betting lines and give you completely subjective odds.

UFC 129 is already poised to break numerous records. It’ll be the largest attendance for the UFC in the company’s history, and their first event held in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. It will be the longest broadcast in UFC history with Facebook pre-lims starting at 5pm ET, Spike prelims at 8pm ET, and the PPV broadcast starting at 9pm ET (an hour earlier than usual). This event also features Jose Aldo becoming the first man ever to make his UFC debut in a title defense.

There’s plenty of exciting action up and down the card so let’s get to it. Remember: These odds are for entertainment purpose and should not be used in any actual wagering. Just like online poker sites. Sorry if that hits a little too close to home for any of you.

Odds of both UFC champions remaining UFC champions after Saturday: 2 to 1 – Apologies to any fans of Jake Shields, but just about every winning streak has to end some time. Georges St. Pierre is too good in too many areas, and I don’t like Shields’ chances of taking GSP down. Apologies also go to fans of Mark Hominick, but there will be only one pasty, bald Canadian that gets to have Dana White strap a belt around his waist. Aldo has too much power and too much speed to be out-boxed by the more technical striking of Hominick for five rounds. It’s MMA and anything can happen, but I’m fairly confident that neither champion will lose their belt in Toronto.

Odds of Nick and/or Nate Diaz starting another cage-clearing brawl after Shields’ fight: 209 to 1 – For those that don’t know, Nick Diaz will be the corner for his brother as well as Shields. I’ve got to think that the Cesar Gracie boys will be on their best behavior for Uncle Dana, but this is the Diaz brothers that we’re talking about. They’d probably get into a knife fight over which fast food place in Stockton, California has the best munchies.

Odds of Mike Goldberg and Joe Rogan mentioning the Anthony Pettis ‘Showtime’ kick during the opening bout, even though Pettis isn’t on the card: 1 to 1 – It’s still relatively fresh in peoples’ minds, but I have a feeling that that kick is going to follow Ben Henderson for the rest of his career. It sucks to be on the wrong end of any highlight reel (just ask Mirko Cro Cop, Chuck Liddell, or Sean Salmon) but unfortunately Ben just happened to be in the cage with Pettis when he decided to add a touch of parkour to his MMA repertoire. Here’s hoping “Bendo” can pull off his own highlight move when he’s in the cage with Mark Bocek. At the very least I imagine we’ll see him escape another submission that would have finished any other fight. That’s kind of his thing.

Odds on all five Canadians sweeping their respective Facebook bouts: 500 to 1: – Ten of the twelve fights at UFC 129 will feature a Canadian fighter against someone not from The Great White North, which means that roughly half the fighters on the card are probably not hockey fans. Five of those battles for national pride will take place on the evening’s Facebook stream, and if I had to make a guess I’d say that the Canadian fighters will go 3-2. I like the chances for Claude Patrick, Ivan Menjivar, and John Makdessi, but I’m not so sure about Jason MacDonald and Yves Jabouin. MacDonald is getting on in years and I wonder how much he’s got left to show for in the octagon, so I’m calling his fight with Ryan Jensen a toss-up. On the other hand Jabouin is likely going to get smashed by Pablo Garza.

Odds on Saturday night being the last time we see Randy Couture compete in the octagon: 20 to 1 – It’s always hard to be believe the retirement talk from a guy who’s said it twice already, but then again it is just 54 days until Couture turns 48 years old. He’s got plenty of reasons to walk away at this point, but I’m pretty sure that Dana White and the UFC can come up with numerous reasons for Randy to come back at least one more time. I’m talking about money, of course, and as you may have heard it does make the world go ‘round. If Couture can pull of the upset one more time he may just get talked back into another fight, but I won’t be too terribly sad if this really is the end.

Odds on Lyoto Machida getting his third loss in as many fights: 100 to 1 – For the record I’m of the opinion that Machida should have gotten the nod from the judges against “Rampage” Jackson, but that fight was close enough that I can’t really argue the point. I don’t believe that Machida’s fight with Couture will be close. In fact I’m willing to bet that it won’t even go to the judges. Machida lost a bit of the killer instinct he developed in his run to the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship when “Shogun” Rua took the belt, but after a meek showing in his last fight I have to believe that Machida will look to be in top form on Saturday.

Odds on the Rogers Centre’s urinals overflowing during the Jason Brilz/Vladimir Matyushenko bout: 3 to 1 – No offense to either fighter, but there aren’t many fight fans who get excited at the prospect of two strong wrestlers facing one another. There’s always the chance that the wrestling cancels out and they engage in a sloppy slugfest, but more than likely this one will come down to a 15 minute snugglefest with each man jockeying for position.

Odds on Jake Shields getting the most cheers of any fighter on the card: 1 million to 1 – He may as well go all out and enter the arena waving an American flag while “Real American” plays over the loudspeakers. The 55,000 fans in attendance will be booing Shields harder than they’ve ever booed before when he comes out, and I can’t even imagine what the response would be if he manages to beat St. Pierre. Get ready for the loudest UFC card ever.

I can’t wait.

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