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Ultimate Fighter Finale 14 Breakdown: Jason Miller vs. Michael Bisping

This Saturday’s TUF 14 Finale marks an end of an era for the UFC. In 2005, Forrest Griffin and Stephan Bonnar tore the house down on Spike TV, and catapulted the UFC into the MMA juggernaut we all know and love. Following a long and eventful partnership, the Ultimate Fighting Championship will finally part ways with the television channel that was instrumental in its success. Concluding their six-year relationship (UFC 141 prelims notwithstanding) will be a bout between middleweight contenders Michael Bisping and Jason “Mayhem” Miller. The winner is rumored to move on to a title eliminator bout against former top contender Chael Sonnen. Additionally, and before the charismatic duo lock horns, the first ever bantamweight and featherweight “TUF” winners will be crowned.

Preliminary Predictions

* Brian Caraway to defeat Dustin Neace by Submission in Round 2
* Steven Siler to defeat Josh Clopton by Decision
* Roland Delorme to defeat Josh Ferguson by Decision
* Dustin Pague to defeat John Albert by TKO in Round 2
* Stephen Bass to defeat Marcus Brimage by Submission in Round

Main Card Predictions

* Johnny Bedford to defeat Louis Gaudinot by Decision
* Tony Ferguson to defeat Yves Edwards by TKO in Round 2
* T.J Dillashaw to defeat John Dodson by Decision
* Diego Brandao to defeat Dennis Bermudez by TKO in Round 1

Middleweight Fight: Michael Bisping vs. Jason “Mayhem” Miller

Perhaps the most glaring disparity between both fighters is on the feet, as Bisping, despite some flaws in his stand-up game, is the superior striker. Miller’s relative inactivity could have resulted in him benefiting from the time off to work on his striking in the gym, but he is unlikely to have closed the gap enough to where he can afford a pure stand-up battle with Bisping. In particular, Bisping’s footwork and constant movement will trouble “Mayhem.” In fact, while Bisping is often guilty of circling to his opponent’s power hand, or backpedaling straight into the fence when his pressed, Miller lacks the necessary tools in his striking to take advantage.

Miller possesses a decent jab, but he is not comfortable enough to use it to set the tone of the fight or control the distance. He also lacks the counter-punching ability and power to punish Bisping for his iffy head movement and lazy mistakes he tends to commit on the feet. For his part, Bisping will look to get on the bicycle, land some jabs, throw plenty of body kicks, and mix them up with some combinations. Bisping does a good job of setting up the high kick, but he lacks the power to polish his opponent off. His right cross in particular is something Miller needs to be wary of, and to his credit, Bisping rarely throws it as a single punch or with little set-up.

Miller doesn’t have great double leg from the outside, but in close-quarters, he is deceptively savvy. He would be smart to capitalize on one of Bisping’s many body kick to catch it and get a trip takedown, and if that opportunity doesn’t arise, he will need to find a way to close the distance. The good news for Miller is that Bisping isn’t exactly a power puncher, and he is unlikely to end Miller’s night with a single strike should “Mayhem” move in a bit carelessly. This is especially crucial, as Miller doesn’t have the striking to set-up the takedown, and may well need to charge forward at the right moment.

Miller’s wrestling on the inside is underrated, and if he gets double underhooks, “The Count” could well be planted on his back. However, Bisping has long proven to be tough to take down and more importantly, even more difficult to hold down. The latter could be the determining factor in this fight, as in a twenty-five minute period, Miller will likely get his opponent down at some point, but to win the fight, he will need to enjoy a significant amount of time on top. That is something Bisping rarely allows, as he possesses some surprisingly good hips that make him quite scrappy on the ground.

It is important to note however, that Miller’s top game is something that would give most fighters fits. If he is successful in keeping Bisping down, he is an expert at capitalizing on the smallest opportunity and use it to pass guard, or work for submissions. His victory over a broken down Kazushi Sakuraba may have been nothing to write home about, but the way Miller transitioned from controlling Sakuraba’s wrists from the top to landing ground and pound to locking in an arm triangle in the blink of an eye is the sign of a true grappler. However, Miller needs to be a bit more measured should he end up on top, as his game tends to leave openings for scrambles and Bisping will likely jump at any opportunity to get back to his feet. Conversely, scrambles provide Miller with the chance to secure the back, which remains his biggest path to victory. Miller’s back control is truly excellent, and he is quite patient in that regard, as he is more than content to get overhooks, wrist control, and from there simply wait for the smallest mistake.

While Miller will have his moments, it is tough to envision him getting repeated takedowns  in order to be able to use his top game and potentially polish the Brit off with a submission. Instead, Bisping will use his solid defensive grappling to stay out of trouble, and dominate the striking on his way to a decision victory.

Official Prediction: Michael Bisping to defeat Jason Miller by Decision

PHOTO CREDIT – UFC

11 COMMENTS
  • climbarock says:

    I’ll be rooting for Miller but I think Bisping is going to TKO him.

    I only caught a couple episodes of TUF this season towards the end, so I have no friggin’ clue who most of these guys are. This is one for the DVR.

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  • GIKE MOLDBERG says:

    I have Dodson pulling out the win and Miller shocking the majority of people by subbing Bisping-Also I think Ferguson is a beast and should be able to defeat Yves handily by violent ending

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  • fanoftna33 says:

    I think Yves has at least 1 more upset in him and he gets the decision, Dodson vs Dillashaw sohuld be a pretty fun fight but I am picking Dodson because he has way more experience. Deigo should be able to finish Dennis unless he gives up the takedown all night. Looks like a very good way to end Spikes run as this is a great card.

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  • edub says:

    -Bisping by being better at everything

    -I’ll take Bermudez in the upset. This fight really reminds me of Nover-Escudero (although I think both Dennis and Diego are a lot better than those guys). I think the wrestling advantage will prove telling. Not very confident though.

    -I called it at the beginning of the season, TJ Dillashaw will win the show at 135. His wrestling pedigree, mixed with a much improved striking game and training daily with the best guys in the world at Team Alpha Male; gives you the best prospect of the show.

    -I’m going for Yves, but Tony probably lamps him.

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  • danw84 says:

    Why do people think Diego is some unstoppable wrecking machine? The dude has 7 losses, and they aren’t exactly to dudes who have their own wikipedia page.

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  • fanoftna33 says:

    I am going with Deigo due to how easily he stopped Caraways takedowns and the fact that Dennis got lit up by Akira standing very easily, like I said if it stays standing Deigo takes it handily.

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  • I have a feeling about Bermudez…dude has had to come back everytime and he always gets a finish…Diego is ruthless but I gotta go with Dennis.

    Dodson is going to take out TJ…Tj has one path to victory and thats keeping the death leperchaun down…which is no easy task whatsover.

    I do agree that Bisping is light years ahead of mayhem on his feet…however Millers tough and savage…5 rounds is a long time and both have great cardio I think The Count will break first and Mayhem will get the sub…or at least I hope so.

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  • Creature says:

    I got Mini Fitch Bedford by UD

    Ferguson by 1st round KO

    Dillashaw by 2nd round tko

    I got Bermudez by tko in the 3rd, i think he survives an early storm, and then puts a gnp beating on a gassed Diego til the ref eventually stops it.

    I have Mayhem by 4th round sub, i think hes underrated and shocks a lot of people tomorrow by making the stand up competitive showing off his improvements, and with improved TD ability eventually wears down Bisping and subs him. Could be wrong, but i honestly believe he will pull it off.

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  • Rich S. says:

    -Ferguson via TKO r1
    -Dillashaw via UD
    -Bermudez via Sub r2
    -Mayhem via Sub r3

    – I’ve been a big fan of Yves Edwards since the first time I saw him fight, so I’ll definitely root for him here, but his chin is suspect and Tony has some serious lead in his hands. I think Yves has the better striking, technically, but if Tony can slip in one of those uppercuts Yves might be waking up on the canvas.

    -Dillashaw/Dodson is a great fight. It should be three high energy rounds. I just see Dillashaw toughing it out for the decision. I’m rooting for Dodson, though. How can you not love that guy?

    -Diego has monster power in his hands. He managed to make it all the way through the house without breaking a sweat. With that said, I think Bermudez has more substance and more ways to victory. He better keep his hands up, though.

    -It seems that from the moment Mayhem/Bisping was announced, no one has really given Mayhem a chance. Maybe I’m just a fan grasping for hope, but I think he has a good chance at winning. Bisping is a great fighter, and he’s definitely better on the feet, but Mayhem is a tremendous grappler. He’s inventive on the ground (and the feet, really) and most importantly, he’s very, very hard to break. Hell, I had Mayhem by UD but now I’m changing it to a sub victory in round 3. Prove me right, Mayhem!

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  • Rich S. says:

    Bisping/Miller is a 5 rounder? Man, I have to get used to that. With that in mind, I like Mayhem’s chances even more.

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  • MickeyC says:

    I agree about Deigo. Sure he has power, but as far as his record and the numbers go dude has lost 1 out of every 3. Hes due. Don’t get me wrong his odds are good, but to count Bermundez out and give him no chance at all is a bad call.
    The best thing TJ has going for him is his camp. Alpha will have him ready for a fight, but if he is intent on squeeking a desion, he may find himself knocked out. LIL man is fast and has some power, thou I can not stomach a turn coat, and his stupid laugh makes me ill.
    Bisping is a F*#k and I hope he contracts a a strain of VD that causes him to go blind! but his chances are decent with Miller not fighting in so long. Plus I think I would have to give him the advantage on the feet, But the 5 rounds could be in Millers favor, for sure if it goes to the ground.

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