Keyboard warrrrriors….come out to plaaaay-yay!

Welcome to Grappling with Issues, our site’s regular weekly feature highlighting insight and opinion from myself and resident workhorse Jeremy Lambert whose general contributions and “Scorecard” event-breakdowns can be regularly found on Five Ounces. As always, just because we staffers get the fancy set-up, please don’t hesitate to offer your own take on the topics in the “Comments” section below.

Also, it is with great regret we announce this will be Jeremy’s final GWI barring the occasional “guest starring” stint as he will be leaving the site to explore other avenues. The column will have a brief hiatus before returning in two weeks with a new format (same ol’ style).

More impressive performance at UFC on FOX 2 – Rashad Evans or Michael Bisping?

Lambert: Evans. I realize he didn’t look great in victory, but at the end of the day, he won and Bisping didn’t. And it’s not like Evans showed any flaws in his fight against Phil Davis either. He scored takedowns on an accomplished wrestler, showed much improved top control, and out stuck him with an effective jab despite being the short of the two. Bisping was the most impressive in defeat, but he still lost and that should count against his performance.

Conlan: I’m not sure losing should always count against a fighter, especially in the case of Bisping who could have easily walked away with a decision win had someone else been sitting at the judges’ table. Evans definitely dominated Davis and that in itself says something without question but he couldn’t put him away despite having plenty of advantageous positions. Meanwhile, Bisping did away with the widespread notion Sonnen would take him down with ease or put on a show similar to that in Evans-Davis. As such, I think “The Count” deserves the nod on this one, not to mention he took on the #2 guy in the division with less than two weeks to prepare and beat him in the minds of a lot of folks.

What is one thing about the UFC on FOX broadcast you would change if given free reign over the production?

Lambert: Make it less NFL. Drop the NFL on FOX music, the stupid robots, and Curt Menefee. FOX has done a lot of great things with the graphics and set up, but it still feels too much like a NFL broadcast and not a UFC broadcast. I can’t be the only one annoyed by the music, especially when it’s played after every commercial break. The robots are stupid on the NFL games, what are they really adding to the show? And Menefee, while an excellent NFL host, doesn’t appear to know anything about MMA. It’s like FOX wants to give the show credibility and what’s more credible than the NFL? But it makes the UFC broadcast feel cheaper and like a rip off.

Conlan: I can’t disagree with a single thing Lambert said. Menefee was a slightly better, less lipstick-y version of Gus Johnson and the robots/music made the whole show feel like a NFL knockoff. To add to the list, I’d like to see future cards booked with the consumer in mind. While a hardcore fan undoubtedly appreciates grappling technique and closely contested match-ups, the average viewer wants to at least see one bout between strikers with a knockout all but guaranteed. They probably don’t even care about divisional ranking because they don’t have any perspective on what it actually means – they just want to see someone go to sleep. Having Bisping fight an adversary like Vitor Belfort instead of Demian Maia (his original opponent) to open up the card would have probably provided a highlight reel finish and gotten some buzz going. Instead viewers were treated to three fights with five of six competitors having a background in wrestling/BJJ, hence some fairly mediocre ratings.

If he beats Roy Nelson, how many more wins will Fabricio Werdum need to merit a title-shot?

Lambert: One. The heavyweight division is pretty wide open right now. There’s Junior dos Santos defending his title against Alistair Overeem, possible fight between Cain Velasquez and Frank Mir to decide the #1 contender, and then who? Brock Lesnar is gone, Shane Carwin is on the shelf and has lost two straight, Rodrigo Nogueira just lost, and everyone else still needs a couple of big victories. The only person who could jump Werdum is the Strikeforce HW GP winner, but who knows when the finals will be and the winner of that bout will still have to fight once more in Strikeforce before being brought over.

Conlan: Agreed 100%. Contendership is far from solidified for any heavyweight out there, incoming or otherwise. I think Mir vs. Werdum would make for a great fight as well, especially if Velasquez fights Antonio Silva as was rumored a few weeks ago. Of course, Nelson could throw yet another wrench in the divisional contendership plan by taking Werdum out tomorrow night. All I know is Samer Kadi is no doubt on edge with all the heavyweight excitement out there!

More likely to be finished on Saturday: Nick Diaz or Carlos Condit?

Conlan: My first inclination would be to say Diaz based on Condit’s power and arsenal of strikes but upon further review I’ll actually go with Diaz. The sovereign son of Stockton has only been finished a single time in his career and that came in 2002 after he’d already fought twice earlier in the evening. Comparably, Condit has been submitted three times and Diaz’s BJJ is no joke. He also has potential for picking Condit apart with strikes while maintaining cardio, another possibility where scoring a stoppage is concerned.

Lambert: I’ve got to go with Diaz as the more likely of the two to be finished. Condit has the power advantage and Diaz, while having a great chin and ability to recover, is hittable. If Condit can get to Diaz early with his power, there’s a chance that he can put him down and be crafty enough to finish him. There’s also the leg kicks, which Diaz doesn’t check. If Condit can take away Diaz’s legs, he could finish him late since Diaz won’t be able to throw with as much volume on just one leg.

Will Chael Sonnen beat Anderson Silva in the rematch?

Conlan: No. Sonnen looked sloppy against Bisping and is unlikely to repeat the performance he put on against Silva the first time around. He’ll also be dealing with the pressure of performing in Brazil after eighteen months of talking smack about “The Spider”. I’m unsure of how mentally strong Sonnen actually is and could see him wilting under the Sao Paolo spotlight.

Lambert: I don’t think Sonnen’s performance on Saturday means anything when it comes to the rematch against Silva. Bisping is an underrated wrestler, at least defensively, while Silva is more content to play the guard game off his back. That said, even though I think Sonnen poses the biggest threat to Silva in the division, right now the champ is just on another level and he’ll be fired up about this fight. As long as Silva is healthy (and that’s actually a big question mark) then he should have an easier time with Sonnen in the rematch.

What fight should headline UFC on FOX 3?

Conlan: Since the card is in May it gives the UFC some time to play with the main event. There are a ton of stars fighting in February and plenty of options to choose from. As such, it’s hard for me to pluck one out of the bunch but, assuming he’s successful at UFC 145, I think Quinton Jackson vs. Forrest Griffin would be a great choice for the lineup. Both have mainstream success and will appeal to the common fan, plus each likes to strike and “Rampage” could easily score a highlight reel knockout on Griffin (or get picked apart again). Beyond that, their original fight was extremely close, Jackson wants a rematch, and Griffin has nothing on his plate.

Frankie Edgar, who defends his belt in a few weeks, would also be a solid choice too if he gets by Ben Henderson given his Jersey roots, though I’m not sure who he’d fight unless Zuffa bites the bullet and brings over Gilbert Melendez.

Lambert: Fellow writer Kadi brought up the possibility of Velasquez vs. Mir, which is a fight I like, but not as a main event. I think the main event has to be a fight between two guys coming off victories. Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller is reportedly the main event, which, while it should be a good fight, is a pretty underwhelming main event bout in terms of name value.

Condit mentioned that he would fight again if Georges St. Pierre can’t return until the end of the year. So if Condit and Josh Koscheck win on Saturday, why not have them headline the third FOX card? It’d be an interim title fight, they wouldn’t be sacrificing that many PPV buys, and they’d be highlighting guys who are around for the long haul.

PHOTO CREDIT – UFC

Keyboard warrrrriors….come out to plaaaay-yay!

Welcome to Grappling with Issues, our site’s regular weekly feature highlighting insight and opinion from myself and resident workhorse Jeremy Lambert whose general contributions and “Scorecard” event-breakdowns can be regularly found on Five Ounces. As always, just because we staffers get the fancy set-up, please don’t hesitate to offer your own take on the topics in the “Comments” section below.

Who should Melvin Guillard face in his next fight?

Lambert: Jacob Volkmann. Even though Volkmann is on a nice little streak and Guillard has lost his last two fights, Volkmann’s resume lacks a big win and Guillard’s losses have come in high profile positions. Plus, it’s not like Volkmann has blown anyone away with his performances, which usually means UFC will punish you a bit instead of rewarding you with a fight against a top contender. If nothing else, Guillard usually has exciting fights and he’ll either knockout Volkmann, ending his win streak and allowing UFC to handle him differently, or get choked out, giving “Christmas” a finish during his streak.

Conlan: Sorry Jeremy, but I think Volkmann is as bad a suggestion as could have been offered. Why would the UFC want to risk giving Guillard a third consecutive loss (essentially a lock given Volkmann’s grappling/submissions)? Rather, I think the organization would be wise to pair Guillard with a striker to provide him with an opportunity to get back on track in highlight-reel fashion. There are plenty of guys on the roster who have some name value and will come to bang. The one I’d go with is Anthony Njokuani. He may be linked to John Makdessi at UFC 145 but that’s definitely a bout they could restructure to include Guillard instead.

TRUE/FALSE – Pat Barry will have a winning record in the Octagon at the end of 2012.

Lambert: TRUE. I’m going to assume that Barry will fight three times in the Octagon in 2012. He’s already fought once and got his hand raised in victory. So he only needs to go 1-1 in his next two bouts, which sounds pretty reasonable given that he’s in the heavyweight division and I think UFC will give him favorable match ups, especially if he loses his next fight.

Conlan: FALSE. I think there may have been a misunderstanding here since Lambert is only looking at 2012, not Barry’s overall record in the Octagon. The win over Morecraft brought it up to 4-4 meaning he’ll need to go 2-0 (or 2-1) to improve things to what I would label as a UFC-worthy level. Since I can’t envision him having an undefeated campaign this year, and there’s no guarantee he’ll fight three more times, I don’t see him working his way above .500 anytime soon.

Biggest threat to pull off an “upset” at UFC on FOX 2 – Chris Weidman, Michael Bisping, or Phil Davis?

Lambert: Well, considering that Vegas actually has Weidman as a favorite over Demian Maia, I’m not sure if that will count as an upset. I’m picking Maia to upset Weidman, but I think Weidman has the best chance of pulling off the upset based on the question. I think Weidman and Maia are pretty evenly matched and that if Weidman can score takedown, play defense on top, and control the position then there’s no reason why he can’t win a decision.

Conlan: I think Weidman is a good choice and I’m actually picking him to beat Maia as well. However, for the sake of discussion I’ll go with Davis. “Mr. Wonderful” has the wrestling to fend off Rashad Evans’ relentless takedowns and work his way back to a standing position if he does indeed get put on the mat. He’s got excellent reach and is extremely athletic, two factors also potentially posing problems for the smaller, bulkier Evans. I’m still giving the nod to Evans in terms of actually coming away with a win but I won’t be shocked if Davis exits the Octagon in victory.

More likely to happen: Jon Jones vs. Rashad Evans in Atlanta or Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen in Brazil?

Conlan: Silva-Sonnen without question. For starters, Jones has only hinted at fighting in April at UFC 145 while Dana White has come out on record a number of times pointing at the possibility of doing Silva vs. Sonnen 2 at a stadium show in Sao Paolo this June. More importantly, I see Sonnen’s chances of winning this weekend being far greater than Evans’ based on the way they match up against their respective UFC on FOX 2 opponents. With both aspects in place there’s little doubt in my mind regarding which scenario has a greater probability of happening.

Lambert: I’ll go with Jones vs. Evans because I’m not fully convinced that Silva will be 100% healthy by the time the Brazil show rolls around or that he truly wants to fight Sonnen again. I’m also not convinced that sending Sonnen to Brazil is the best idea either. On the other hand, Jones and Rashad want to fight and they want to get things over with. The only thing stopping this fight from happening in Atlanta is Rashad’s health after the Davis fight and Rashad winning, of course.

OVER/UNDER – 5.7 million viewers (on average) for UFC on FOX 2.

Conlan: OVER (but not my much). I think the event will lose some non-fan viewers because the show doesn’t feature a title-fight but will make up for the hit based on a few things. The lineup features more star-power including a pair of Ultimate Fighter winners with experience coaching TUF as well as Sonnen who himself has gotten a bit of mainstream attention based on his colorful personality. It’s also two hours long so there’s more time for buzz to spread if things start out strong instead of a single fight that average folks will rush to tune in for at the very end of the broadcast.

Lambert: OVER. The first event had the luxury of being the first event and having that curiosity factor. This event doesn’t have that going for it and I’m not feeling the buzz for this event like I did for the first one. There is one huge factor working in this events favor though and that’s the success of FOX. They’re coming off the NFC Title game, which did 57.6 million viewers. You would have that UFC could get at least 10% of that audience. Also, FOX has done good ratings all week with shows like American Idol, Touch, House, and Alcatraz. So even though the event may not have the buzz of the first, FOX is on a roll right now, and that momentum could lead to a big number.

Will Zuffa take anymore steps this year to prevent PED use in the sport?

Conlan: No, not unless a major star gets popped and they need to save face in the mainstream media. Fighters are already tested by State commissions and the UFC has gone “above and beyond” by implementing their own pre-contract screenings. Personally I’d love to see them do more such as implementing their own system of fines/suspensions or randomly testing fighters but I don’t see it happening anytime soon.

Lambert: I think they’ll take a minor step or two, sort of like they did with the whole “all new fighters will be drug tested” rule. Maybe they’ll dabble in some out of competition testing or they’ll institute a harsher punishment, but it won’t be anything major if they do take another step. As long as they show a little bit more progress this year then I’ll be happy.

PHOTO CREDIT – UFC

Keyboard warrrrriors….come out to plaaaay-yay!

Welcome to Grappling with Issues, our site’s regular weekly feature highlighting insight and opinion from myself and resident workhorse Jeremy Lambert whose general contributions and “Scorecard” event-breakdowns can be regularly found on Five Ounces. As always, just because we staffers get the fancy set-up, please don’t hesitate to offer your own take on the topics in the “Comments” section below.

“Fighter pay” in the UFC is a small/big/non issue?

Lambert: It’s a small issue. If it were a big issue, I think we’d hear more about it from fighters, but it’s obviously not a non-issue since I’m sure fighters probably aren’t getting paid what they’re worth given how much time they put into the sport. The bigger issue is PEDs. Another fighter (Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal) got popped this week and now Zuffa is going to test every incoming fighter for PEDs. How about they test fighters already on the roster? Maybe it’ll prevent the new signings from not cheating (at least at first), but that doesn’t mean that guys who are already still employed won’t keep cheating.

Conlan: Agreed that the issue is relatively small and certainly not as inflated as ESPN’s recent report would have had viewers believe. I think Lorenzo Fertitta made a good point in the less-edited version of the network’s interview with him as far as saying you could go into any locker room, or any job for that matter, and find disgruntled employees who think they deserve more than they’re making. However, numerous fighters – even those who aren’t on the roster anymore like Sean McCorkle – have come out since the feature to back how the UFC handles pay and I’d rather listen to them than a bunch of anonymous sources or guys who haven’t been part of the company for 5+ years.

I’ll save my take on PED testing for a future GWI when it’s like, you know, the actual topic being discussed.

Will Anthony Johnson ever fight again inside the Octagon?

Lambert: I’m sure he will. Dana White has already said that he likes Johnson as a person, which never hurts, plus he was only missing weight. I know that’s a huge deal and completely unprofessional but he wasn’t using steroids, and plenty of guys who have been busted for steroids still compete in the Octagon. If Johnson takes some fights on smaller shows, proves he can make weight, and picks up some victories, I don’t see why he wouldn’t be brought back sooner or later.

Conlan: I think so too. “Rumble” is only 27 and, as Jeremy said, all he needs to do is show he can consistently avoid coming in heavy to earn another shot in the UFC. He might even want to consider making a permanent move to light heavyweight. At 6’2” with a physique chiseled from marble he certainly has the size to be a 205er and cutting 15-20 pounds instead of 30-40 pounds would keep his cardio on point (not to mention be a lot safer in terms of his long term health). Also, accepting he’s too big for 170/185 would provide an additional layer of comfort for his former employers in terms of bringing him back on board since there’s no question he can safely hit THAT mark.

More likely ending to Friday night’s headliner at UFC on FX – Jim Miller submits Melvin Guillard or Guillard knocks Miller out?

Lambert: Well, since I’m predicting Miller to win via submission, I’m gonna go with that one. Guillard has that one punch power, especially early in the fight, but he has a tendency to fade, while we know Miller can keep up a high pace for all fifteen minutes. Plus, it’s not like Guillard has an outstanding chin and Miller does have power in his hands. If Miller can rock Guillard like Joe Stevenson or Joe Lauzon did, he may end up locking on a submission without securing a takedown.

Conlan: Without question the first scenario. Miller has three losses, all by way of decision. Guillard has nine losses, eight by way of submission (including all five of his defeats in the Octagon). Granted, Miller hasn’t faced a striker with Guillard’s power but he’s definitely faced opponents with more-than adequate stand-up like Bart Palaszewski and Duane Ludwig.

Will Jose Aldo lose in 2012?

Conlan: No, at least so long as he remains at 145 pounds since he’s unproven as a lightweight. There aren’t any dominant contenders looming on the horizon and the challengers that are out there aren’t at a significantly higher skill level than any opponent Aldo’s beaten already. Sure, he could get clipped behind the ear a la Georges St. Pierre-Matt Serra or shred his knee mid-round like Patrick Cote, but outside of some sort of freakish occurrence taking place I think Aldo’s incredible win streak will continue throughout the rest of the year.

Lambert: I would say not. Aldo has some tough fights at 145, like the Hatsu Hioki vs. Palaszewski winner or Dustin Poirier, but I don’t like the chances of any of those three fighters against Aldo. Even if he moves to 155, he stated he’ll only move up for a title shot, and given his skills, I don’t think it’s all that farfetched to say that Aldo could beat Frankie Edgar, Ben Henderson, or whoever the lightweight champ may be later this year. Though, if I had to design a perfect fighter to beat the current featherweight champion, it would be whoever he faces next.

Play UFC Matchmaker Joe Silva and book Rousimar Palhares’ next fight.

Conlan: The UFC is certainly set on that front given their January 28 lineup on FOX. Palhares, who just fought himself and will be ready to go in a few months, would be perfect for either the loser of Michael Bisping-Chael Sonnen or winner of Demian Maia-Chris Weidman. Since I see Sonnen and Weidman coming out of the show with a freshly printed “W” next to their names I’ll go with Bisping who certainly has the striking to take out Palhares but lacks the ground-game to fend off the powerful Brazilian’s BJJ-based attacks.

Lambert: I’ll be extremely cruel and say Mark Munoz. What better way to welcome a guy back from a knee injury than to have him face Palhares? Alright, even though that would be a terrible “welcome back” gift for Munoz, it is a fight that would make sense. Palhares obviously needs a step up in competition and Munoz isn’t one to back down from a challenge.

Is Pat Barry fighting for his job at UFC on FX 1?

Conlan: 100% yes. As entertaining as Barry’s personality and style may be a loss to Christian Morecraft would make him 3-5 inside the Octagon and that simply doesn’t cut it, especially when you’re looking at an undersized heavyweight whose BJJ/wrestling are subpar in comparison to most of his peers.

Lambert: I think he is, but I’m not willing to go 100% like Bren. Going 3-5 in the octagon doesn’t cut it, but all the higher-ups in the UFC love Barry because of his charisma and the fact that his fights, win or lose, are usually entertaining for as long as they last. Plus, even with the addition of the Strikeforce big guys, the heavyweight division is still pretty shallow and Barry, while obviously not a world beater, is a serviceable heavyweight who has some name value.

PHOTO CREDIT – UFC

Keyboard warrrrriors….come out to plaaaay-yay!

Welcome to Grappling with Issues, our site’s regular weekly feature highlighting insight and opinion from myself and resident workhorse Jeremy Lambert whose general contributions and “Scorecard” event-breakdowns can be regularly found on Five Ounces. As always, just because we staffers get the fancy set-up, please don’t hesitate to offer your own take on the topics in the “Comments” section below.

Will Strikeforce last past 2012?

Conlan: No. More and more I keep hearing Strikeforce may only put on six shows in 2012 rather than eight, a bad sign in itself. With the abysmal ticket sales and general lack of buzz about shows I don’t see Showtime wanting them back or the UFC wanting to continue floating them financially. Hell, every star on the Strikeforce roster wants to go to the UFC, so there’s no reason to keep playing games by pretending the organization isn’t nose-diving towards being dismantled.

Lambert: I have to echo Bren on this one. I’m no body language expert, but I got the feeling that Dana White really regretted keeping the company around during his interview at this past weekends Strikeforce event. They actually did a fair amount of promotion for Saturday’s event and it was during a Showtime free preview weekend, and it still only drew 344,000 people. Dana doesn’t appear to be behind the promotion, fighters would rather be in the UFC, and fans would rather watch something else.

What should Strikeforce do with the featherweight division now that “Cyborg” Santos has been suspended for a year?

Conlan: They actually *have* a featherweight division?!? When did this happen? The truth is there aren’t enough quality 145-pound females in MMA or else we would have heard about more of them by now. I’d wager 90+ percent of the audience had no idea who Hiroko Yamanaka was prior to her being named as a challenger and that in itself is all you need to know when it comes to the 145ers. There was never a real effort to build a division to begin with so why start now?

Lambert: Just award Gina Carano the vacant title and hope to God she thinks it’s valuable enough to defend this year. They’ll pop a rating if she decides to fight and if she doesn’t, maybe she’ll be kind enough to show up and drunkenly dance. Scrapping the division is obviously the way to go. The whole appeal of the division was, “Watch Cyborg beat up some poor girl” and now that’s gone. They haven’t built up any other fighters and I guess that’s because they have no fighters to build up.

How many rounds will Jose Aldo vs. Chad Mendes go this weekend?

Conlan: Five. I don’t think either man will finish the other barring a perfectly placed “one punch” knockout. Mendes is likely to control a lot of the action while on top of Aldo, scoring points and fending off elbows/submission attempts but not necessarily pounding the Brazilian champ out. Likewise, Aldo will clearly dominate the striking department but was unable to finish a one-legged Urijah Faber or the tag-team of Mark Hominick and his hematoma. Someone’s winning a decision. I’m just not sure who.

Lambert: I think Aldo will finish Mendes in the second round. Sure he didn’t finish Faber and Hominick, but that’s only because he was fighting them in their hometown and didn’t want to completely embarrass them. And he didn’t finish Florian because he felt bad that he had to stand in the way of Kenny failing to win another title. Things are different this time though. He’s in the UFC main event and fighting in his home country of Brazil. There will be no sympathy for Mendes this Saturday.

Should Zuffa bring in a UFC middleweight for Luke Rockhold’s next fight?

Lambert: No. First off, Zuffa doesn’t have many UFC middleweights to spare as it’s not a real deep division. I guess a guy like Brian Stann could move down to Strikeforce, but here’s the problem – no UFC fighter wants to move down to Strikeforce. Really though, Rockhold has two good fights at 185 in Strikeforce those being Tim Kennedy and a rematch with Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza. I know Rockhold wants better competition, but he should really slow his role a bit. He won a close decision against Souza in the first fight and beat Keith Jardine in 2012. He doesn’t really have the resume to be calling out UFC guys just yet. If he beats Kennedy and Souza, both of whom are UFC caliber middleweights, then move him to the Octagon.

Conlan: Agreed for the most part. Kennedy should be definitely be Rockhold’s next opponent and Souza is a legitimate option assuming “Jacare” can pick up a win beforehand, as their first fight wasn’t close enough to dictate an immediate rematch). If those two things play out, that scenario should keep Rockhold busy until the latter part of the year when things can be reassessed based on Strikeforce’s future or lack thereof.

However, I do differ with Jeremy in terms of assuming there isn’t a legitimate middleweight on the UFC roster willing to go to Strikeforce for a 6-9 month stint if it meant the same pay day and the possibility of a title-shot if/when the UFC absorbs the company. Why wouldn’t a guy like Yushin Okami prefer a scenario with Rockhold/Kennedy/Souza to the road he’d have to travel in the UFC to earn another crack at the belt?

Anthony Johnson will do better/worse at 185 pounds than he did at 170.

Lambert: Better, because as I just mentioned, middleweight isn’t deep, especially compared to welterweight. It’s not like Johnson lit up his fellow 170ers. He faltered in his biggest test against Josh Koscheck, missed significant time, and then won back-to-back fights against mid-level opponents but now he’s at 185. If he beats Vitor Belfort, he’s legitimately one fight away from a title fight.

Conlan: I’m going to cheat and say “the same”. As Jeremy pointed out, Johnson’s run at 170-pounds wasn’t anything to brag about. He beat some solid opposition but also lost a few fights despite having a huge size advantage. I see the same situation carrying over to middleweight where he’ll be healthier but also face guys of a similar physical stature. Ultimately, “Rumble” will take out some quality opponents but also lose a few times, maybe even against guys he should beat on paper, and remain as much a top contender to the middleweight title as he is to the welterweight one, i.e. a long-shot.

Will Jose Aldo still be a featherweight in January 2013?

Lambert: This is a tough one, but I think he’ll end up moving to 155 sometime this year. Even though a drawn out Aldo still beats the majority of the division, there’s no point in him continuing to cut the weight when Frankie Edgar has proven that smaller guys can get it done at lightweight. Aldo obviously has the skills to compete in the division and he’ll have a nice speed advantage as well. Plus, assuming the weight cut is the reason for his questionable cardio at 145, those issues should be eliminated at 155.

Conlan: The only person who truly knows the answer is Andre Pederneiras, Aldo’s coach at Nova Uniao. The 145-pound champ has never waivered from his stance that he would do what he was told to whether it meant staying at featherweight or moving up. I will say that I’m confident Aldo’s recent training time with Gray Maynard probably gave him a better feel for how he’d fare at 155 and, at least from the footage the UFC released, it would definitely be more than decent.

If forced to pick “yes” or “no” on this topic I’ll go with the former since I think his camp will want him to truly cement his legacy at featherweight before moving up. With fights on the horizon against some solid scrappers, as well as a continuous stream of 155ers moving down, as long as he can get his weight-cutting in check he’ll be terrorizing the division for at least another year (which is really only 2-3 more fights max).

PHOTO CREDIT – UFC

Keyboard warrrrriors….come out to plaaaay-yay!

Welcome to Grappling with Issues, our site’s regular weekly feature highlighting insight and opinion from myself and resident workhorse Jeremy Lambert whose general contributions and “Scorecard” event-breakdowns can be regularly found on Five Ounces. As always, just because we staffers get the fancy set-up, please don’t hesitate to offer your own take on the topics in the “Comments” section below.

Who will Tyron Woodley face for the Strikeforce welterweight belt if he beats Jordan Mein tomorrow night?

Lambert: Logic says he’ll face the winner of the other welterweight fight on the card; Tarec Saffiedine vs. Tyler Stinson, especially since Stinson has already come out and said he’s going to ask for a title shot if he wins. Then again, you can never count on Strikeforce to be logical, and honestly, does it matter? No offense to any of the 170 pounders in Strikeforce, some of whom could make it in the UFC, but we all know the welterweight title is completely secondary when all the best welterweights are in the UFC.

Conlan: Jon Fitch. Okay, I know it’s a relatively insane prediction but bear with me for a second while I attempt to explain the source of my delusion. For starters, there is zero public interest in seeing Woodley face Saffiedine (again) or Stinson and in fact I’d wager good money that most fans have no idea who either man is. However, as is the case with Keith Jardine, average MMA enthusiasts know who Fitch is and (unlike Jardine) understand he has been a top contender for the past few years. The UFC could easily transfer Fitch’s deal over to Strikeforce as they have in reverse with Nick Diaz, Alistair Overeem, etc. and book him to face Woodley for the belt. Plus, it’s not like Fitch would have to go to Strikeforce for more than a year since the company only has seven events left on its 2012 deal (not counting tomorrow night’s show).

He’s coming off a loss, sure, but quick KOs happen – just ask Georges St. Pierre – and I suspect most of you would agree Fitch is still better than 95% of the Strikeforce welterweight division. Why let the defeat set him back two years in the UFC when he could come in to Strikeforce for a year, possibly pick up a belt along with a few wins, and then return in a year with more momentum? It’s not as though he’s a money-making draw in comparison to some of his peers so harness his dwindling spotlight and direct it at a promotion in desperate need of a respectable, well-known contender.

True/False – Saturday night will mark Muhammed Lawal’s last fight in Strikeforce.

Lambert: I hope so. Once again, Strikeforce is filled with guys who could likely be competitive in the UFC, but we don’t know until we actually see it. There’s no one else for The King of Mo to fight in Strikeforce, and while I think he’d do fine in the UFC, I want to see it before I believe it. No knock on the guy, who I’m a particular fan of, but while he has all the talent in the world, it’s not like he’s beaten a ton of great competition. He out-wrestled Gegard Mousasi, lost to Rafael Cavalcante, and then beat a bunch of mediocre guys. There’s no one else for him to fight in Strikeforce, so let’s see how good he really is in the Octagon.

Conlan: I hope not. Lawal would be lost in the UFC’s light heavyweight division and wouldn’t have nearly the impact on the organization that he could in regards to Strikeforce. The promotion needs to hold on to a few fighters, like Gilbert Melendez, with a solid profile and skills to boot while things unfold over the next year. By staying in Strikeforce and potentially picking up 2-3 more wins in 2012 Lawal could enter the UFC as an immediate contender instead of a guy who was 2-1 in his last three. Again, Strikeforce is almost certainly going to be folded into the UFC after their current contract runs out so Lawal is destined for a date there at some point anyways. It’s all a matter of how he’s used beforehand that matters. A rematch with “Feijao” could be done to erase the lone loss of his career, then maybe a fall date with a well-known UFC castoff, and he could truly debut in the Octagon as more than a paper king.

Fill in the Blank: Brock Lesnar deciding to retire was ______.

Lambert: Unfortunate. Although he’s been through a lot with his illness and he never reacted well to pain or punishment, possibly proving that he wasn’t long for the MMA world, no one can deny that when Lesnar fought, you got excited. I won’t say that the heavyweight division is now boring because Brock is gone, but it definitely loses some “big fight feel” luster without him. It’s also unfortunate for the UFC, because Brock was guaranteed to pop a buyrate, and now they don’t have that.

Conlan: A welcome sight. I respect Lesnar’s accomplishments but I also think they’re overrated by most. To say the division loses some “big fight feel” by watching a 34-year old with a 5-3 record walk is beyond revealing in how successful the UFC’s marketing machine is. As such, the only people who should genuinely be missing Lesnar’s presence are the higher-ups at Zuffa who no longer have his PPV appeal to promote with.

Did he cut a great promo? Yes. Was he a great fighter? No. His decision to retire before the Overeem bout showed at UFC 141 and indicated to me the world had been duped by guy who thought he wanted to be a Mixed Martial Artist just like he thought he wanted to play football or be a professional wrestler. Shane Carwin snapped him into reality, Cain Velasquez sealed the notion, and Overeem put a stamp on it. Lesnar’s retirement was a GOOD thing for him, his family, and the sport of MMA as a whole. There’s no need for a mediocre guy making $400,000 win/lose when some of the sport’s best don’t make 1/10 of that.

BUY/SELL: Fedor Emelianenko will compete in the UFC in 2012.

Conlan: SELL. Dana White wants nothing to do with M-1 or Emelianenko and let’s face it, does anyone actually believe Fedor can contend against the UFC’s brightest based on victories over Jeff Monson and Satoshi Ishii? The Emelianenko Express has departed the station where hopes of seeing him in the Octagon are concerned, and in fact I’m not even sure he’ll ever fight in North America again.

Lambert: BUY. Call me crazy or laugh at me (both would be acceptable responses to what I’m about to write), but I believe that we’re going to see Fedor in the UFC on July 4th weekend fighting Lesnar. Why do I believe this? Well, I have a gut feeling, and we all know how well those usually turn out. Honestly, I realize it’s an outlandish prediction and extremely wishful thinking that Fedor will even fight in the UFC, but if it’s going to happen, it’s going to happen in 2012 because this will probably be the last year of his career.

Which former Strikeforce champion had the most impressive debut/re-debut in the UFC this past year?

Conlan: Nick Diaz. Overeem’s win over Lesnar was solid, and Dan Henderson’s dance with Mauricio Rua was a classic, but Diaz came in and beat B.J. Penn soundly (and who has ever done that before other than maybe GSP or Matt Hughes via Crucifix). Lesnar was a bit shaky coming into last weekend’s loss after having been out with illness for a year, while Henderson-Rua was as much a draw as it was a victory for “Hendo”.

Lambert: I’m actually going to go with Overeem, since he actually finished his opponent and did so in very impressive fashion. Say what you will about Lesnar being out for a year and being affected by the illness, and while it’s true, it’s also a bit of revisionist history since all the talk leading up to the fight was that Lesnar was now 100% and the best he’s ever been in his fighting career. Plus, it’s not like Lesnar was a cakewalk opponent for “The Reem” given their styles. Overeem showed an aggressiveness, put Brock on his heels, made him pay for closing the distance with knees, and then finished him quickly.

More likely to get a title shot in 2012: Johny Hendricks, Jake Ellenberger or Mike Pierce?

Conlan: Jake Ellenberger. He’s got a devastating knockout win over Jake Shields, a former top contender and decorated champ in his own right, and a winnable opponent in the form of Diego Sanchez. If he comes away with his hand raised against Sanchez he’ll be a single victory away from a title-shot while Hendricks/Pierce aren’t quite as close (especially Pierce).

Lambert: If Ellenberger gets by Sanchez, I think we’re going to see Ellenberger vs. Hendricks in a #1 contenders bout down the line. There’s no way Ellenberger will sit out most of 2012 after he theoretically beats Sanchez, and that’s what he’ll likely have to do if he waits to challenge the winner of St. Pierre vs. Diaz/Condit. I’ll go with Ellenberger as well since I think he beats Hendricks, but I wouldn’t sleep on Sanchez beating him, setting up Sanchez vs. Hendricks and knowing Jake out of contention for the time being.

PHOTO CREDIT – UFC/STRIKEFORCE

Keyboard warrrrriors….come out to plaaaay-yay!

Welcome to Grappling with Issues, our site’s regular weekly feature highlighting insight and opinion from myself and resident workhorse Jeremy Lambert whose general contributions and “Scorecard” event-breakdowns can be regularly found on Five Ounces. As always, just because we staffers get the fancy set-up, please don’t hesitate to offer your own take on the topics in the “Comments” section below.

Enjoy this weekend’s year-ending MMA action and have a safe, fun-filled New Year’s Eve!

Name a fighter you see as being poised for a huge year in 2012.

Lambert: Carlos Condit. I’m a big fan of Condit and everything is set up for him to have a big 2012 as long as he takes care of business in the cage. He’s already fighting for the interim welterweight title in February against Nick Diaz. Even though Diaz is as tough as they come, Condit is equally as tough and matches up pretty well with the former Strikeforce 170-pound champion. If he defeats Diaz, he’ll fight Georges St. Pierre, who will be coming off a very long lay-off and major knee surgery. If there’s ever a time for GSP to show a weakness, it’ll be in his return bout considering he could be very tentative and rusty, and Condit has the tools to capitalize on those openings and make GSP pay. Those two victories alone would make for a good 2012 for “The Natural Born Killer.”

Conlan: Though obviously this topic requires one to look into a proverbial crystal ball I can’t agree with Lambert’s pick because I’m far from confident in Condit’s ability to get by Diaz or GSP.

Rather, I’ll go with Jon Jones who would be hard-pressed to top these past twelve months but could certainly match the span by picking up wins over Dan Henderson and Rashad Evans, and possibly an undersized heavyweight like Cain Velasquez or even a certain middleweight champion (which I’ll talk about more in a different topic) while the 205-pound division sorts itself out. With Jones’ personality, professionalism, success, and skill-set, he could easily crossover into “mainstream star” territory in 2012 with a few more convincing victories. Sure, “Bones” is certain to face high-caliber opponents making another unbeaten year a difficult task but it is equally tough to pick against his ability to successfully do so given the dominance he’s displayed in his career.

TRUE/FALSE – Donald Cerrone will get a title-shot if he beats Nate Diaz at UFC 141.

Lambert: The only reason Cerrone wouldn’t get a title shot is if UFC feels there’s someone more deserving than him, but I can’t think of anyone who would be. The guys who were in line for a potential title shot all lost recently and the only upcoming lightweight fight between two guys who are near the top of the division is Anthony Pettis vs. Joe Lauzon, but I think Cerrone has better credentials than those two. With a victory over Diaz, “Cowboy” would be on a seven fight win streak with wins over some very good fighters. His only losses are to Jamie Varner (controversial and avenged) and Ben Henderson (twice), but if you don’t want to see Cerrone vs. Henderson 3 (pending Henderson beating Frankie Edgar) then stop reading, because their first fight was one of the best fights of 2009 and both guys have improved a ton since then.

The only way I don’t see Cerrone getting a title shot is if UFC smartens up and brings over Gilbert Melendez, in which case “Cowboy” would have to take the back saddle.

Conlan: I think I’ll take Jeremy’s lead and run with it!

“Cowboy” will almost certainly mosey on down to the ol’ contendership corral if he takes Diaz out in their duel. He’s tough as two-dollar leather, polished as a preacher’s cross, and reacts like a riled up rattlesnake. Cerrone is not one to strike first but disregard his warnings after coming across his path and you’re likely to get bit.

Beyond that, my pardner ‘round these parts has covered the rest of it as though he was the sun on a cloudless day shining down upon the Texas plains. I don’t see Melendez riding into town anytime soon and another showdown at high noon between Cerrone-Henderson, or a fresh rival in Edgar, would both be welcome viewing on the Conlan Ranch.

Who has a better chance against Junior dos Santos – Brock Lesnar or Alistair Overeem?

Lambert: Lesnar. I don’t really like either guy’s chances against JDS, but at least Lesnar has the wrestling credentials to worry the champion and, if he’s now 100% healthy, should be in great shape to test the cardio of Dos Santos. Overeem is a very accomplished striker, but I actually think JDS is a better boxer and if Overeem tries to employ leg kicks, he’ll leave himself open for counters, and JDS has great timing on countering kicks. Plus Overeem’s cardio and chin/heart are always a question. Lesnar might not react well to getting hit, but he has tremendous heart and has never been cleanly KO’d.

Conlan: I’m also going with Lesnar. I favor Dos Santos’ striking in comparison to Overeem’s based on precision/speed, while Lesnar’s wrestling could at least make it interesting. There’s always the chance Overeem could land a night-ending power punch (or kick) but I think that’s less likely than Lesnar getting a takedown, then pounding on the affable Brazilian until the referee jumps in.

OVER/UNDER – Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem will last seven minutes.

Conlan: UNDER (by about five minutes). I expect both men to come out and immediately implement their game-plans. Regardless of who is more successful, don’t trust Lesnar’s chin to absorb any of Overeem’s strikes nor do I believe Overeem can weather the storm if he ends up on his back. As such I see a quick finish in the fight’s future but a glorious one all the same.

Lambert: OVER, but just slightly. Even though I think the fight will be more or less decided in the first minute or so, I think it’ll be kind of a cautious first round. If Lesnar gets the takedown, I think he’ll take his time and not want to go all crazy with his strikes. If Lesnar doesn’t get the takedown, Overeem will likely stay patient on the feet because over-committing to his strikes could lead to a takedown. After the first round though, Overeem will either be so tired that Lesnar should be able to put him away on the ground or Lesnar will be so discouraged that Overeem will open up more, which should allow him to put Lesnar away.

Who will win the DREAM Bantamweight Grand Prix on New Years Eve?

Conlan: Part of me wants to go with Rodolfo Marques Diniz because he has past wins over legends like Carlos Carlos and Ralph Lauren but I actually think his opponent, Bibiano Fernandes, has the best chance. He’s beaten some solid opposition in the past and won multiple fights in a single evening before. He also has an easier route to the final in Diaz than is the case between Masakazu Imanari-Antonio Banuelos so theoretically he’ll be dealing with less damage than whoever comes out of that clash.

Lambert: I have to echo Bren’s comment here. In these one night tournaments, it’s all about staying fresh after your first fight, and if things go the way we most people predict they will, Fernandes should have little trouble with Diniz while Banuelos vs. Imanari could very likely go to a decision given the grappling of both men. Even if it wasn’t a one night tournament though, I do believe that “Bibi” is the most talented bantamweight of the four.

What potential fight you’re most looking forward to in 2012?

Conlan: Jon Jones vs. Anderson Silva. Hey, a boy can dream, right? If Jones and Silva pick up a pair of wins each in 2012 they could be in a position to face off in a legitimate “super-fight” on New Year’s Eve Weekend. Also, lately Dana White has been pushing more and more for the bout to eventually take place if both men keep going at their current pace, so that in itself is a good indicator of the match-up’s probability.

If forced to go with something a little more grounded in reality I’ll say St. Pierre vs. the winner of Condit-Diaz for obvious reasons.

Lambert: Chael Sonnen vs. Anderson Silva 2. Like it or not, Sonnen has been Silva’s toughest opponent to date and really the only man who has made Silva look human for the majority of the fight. Sonnen looked very impressive in his victory over Brian Stann and if he’s able to out-wrestle a guy like Mark Munoz, it’ll give him more merit to a rematch. Plus Sonnen will continue to be a quote machine leading up to the fight in his efforts to get under the skin of Silva.

PHOTO CREDIT – UFC

Keyboard warrrrriors….come out to plaaaay-yay!

Welcome to Grappling with Issues, our site’s regular weekly feature highlighting insight and opinion from myself and resident workhorse Jeremy Lambert whose general contributions and “Scorecard” event-breakdowns can be regularly found on Five Ounces. As always, just because we staffers get the fancy set-up, please don’t hesitate to offer your own take on the topics in the “Comments” section below.

Also, Merry Christmas to all from the GWI staff or, if you don’t roll that way, have a fun-filled, safe weekend and watch out for over-nogged drivers!

Who would you like to see Gilbert Melendez face next, and who will he actually mix it up with?

Lambert: I’d like to see him in the UFC facing the winner of Frankie Edgar vs. Ben Henderson, but I’m not holding my breath for that happen. I’m going assume that UFC will send over one of their top lightweights, otherwise the only guys for him to fight in Strikeforce are K.J. Noons or Josh Thomson. So who will red rover, red rover, Uncle Dana send over? It shouldn’t be someone coming off a loss, because that would be doing a disservice to Melendez. So it needs to be someone coming off a win, but also well known/good enough to make the fight intriguing. With that reasoning, I’m going with the winner of Jim Miller vs. Melvin Guillard. Both guys are near the top of UFC 155 division and if Melendez can get by either guy, it’ll further prove that he belongs in the Octagon.

Conlan: I too would like to see him against Edgar/Henderson but, like Jeremy, I’m also under the impression that scenario is about as realistic as Randy Couture winning an Academy Award for his work in Expendables 2. I like the thought of Miller/Guillard for the reasons Lambert listed. I think the winner of Joe Lauzon vs. Anthony Pettis could also be a possibility. However, I have a feeling the UFC won’t send one of their guys over until mid-2012 so Melendez’s next defense will come against someone from his home-promotion instead (likely Noons who Strikeforce wanted to pair him with anyways before Jorge Masvidal ruined their plans).

How would Gegard Mousasi fare in the UFC’s light heavyweight division – poor, average, or excellent?

Lambert: Average. He’s a good striker, solid on the ground, and his wrestling looked much improved against Ovince St. Preux, but I still don’t think it’d be good enough to stop the takedowns of guys like Rashad Evans, Jon Jones, Phil Davis, or even Quinton Jackson if he decided to wrestle. Mousasi would fall in line with guys like Rich Franklin, Forrest Griffin, Stephan Bonnar, etc. where he’d win some fights, lose some fights, but always stay “in the mix.”

Conlan: Somewhere between “average” and “excellent”. I also question his ability to stop superior wrestlers and let’s face it – he fought to a Draw against Keith Jardine. He may have deserved the judges’ nod in their bout but it was still close enough to call the result into question. To be an “excellent” 205er you need to be mopping the canvas up with “The Dean of Mean”, not going the distance while occasionally being put in bad positions. I also think he’d need to bulk up some since he’s a natural middleweight and would be undersized in comparison to some of the folks in Jeremy’s response.

What is one thing you’d like Dana Claus to bring you this year for Christmas?

Lambert: Half his bank account would be nice.

Honestly though, while Dana can’t really do anything about this, it’d be nice to have a healthy roster to use in 2012. So many fights in 2011 either fell through or had to be re-scheduled due to injury that it got tough to get excited when fights were announced because I always had that feeling that the fight would end up getting canceled. Unfortunately we’re already off to a bad start with Georges St. Pierre being out for over half the year and guys dropping like flies on UFC 142. I guess St. Dana isn’t real.

Conlan: I’m sure White would be happy to give Jeremy half of his bank account…the part with the zeros that is.

I’ll go with a tournament or two. The UFC has already booked a four-man competition for the company’s inaugural flyweight championship so clearly they can’t be too opposed to the idea and it would be a good way to rain some on Bellator’s parade, taking away one of the unique aspects of Bjorn Rebney’s group. Tournaments would also help in determining a clear-cut, deserving contender in divisions where there is a logjam at the top.

How much money would it take for you to step into the cage with Mrs. Cyborg?

Conlan: You couldn’t pay me enough money to do so on a legitimate level and not because I’m afraid but because it’s a lose/lose situation (similarly to the same reason Zuffa will never toy with the idea of having her fight a male opponent). In the end I would either be fighting a female or getting beaten up by a girl, the more likely outcome I assure you. However, for a few thousand dollars I’d gladly follow in the footsteps of another B.C. (Bo Cantrell) and instantly take a dive as though she was a beardless, Brazilian Kimbo Slice.

Lambert: One million dollars……sorry……one hundred million dollars.

My face is my money maker, that’s why I spend all day behind a computer. I can’t have Mrs. Cyborg ruin my face for chump change, I need Brock Lesnar money at the very least. I’d be worth it as well. Because I wouldn’t just go in there to take a dive. I’d hype up the fight better than Frank Mir against Lesnar and I’d take training super serial by working out with the likes of Gil Martinez. I guarantee I last longer than Hiroko Yamanaka because I would follow the game plan.

Book a heavyweight bout featuring a UFC heavyweight and an incoming Strikeforce heavyweight.

Conlan: The twisted side of me wants to go with Daniel Cormier vs. Cain Velasquez just because it’s a match-up that will never happen.

On a more serious note, and avoiding any of the guys who have already been booked for UFC appearances, I’ll go with Josh Barnett vs. Mir. Both men have good stand-up plus polished ground-games. Beyond that, each knows how to promote the hell out of a show so the pre-fight trashtalk would be epic, and it would also be one of those iconic UFC vs. PRIDE pairings that fans like me have dreamed about seeing for years.

Lambert: Ben Rothwell vs. Valentijn Overeem. Why? Well, why not? It probably wouldn’t last longer given Overeem’s track record, but can you imagine this thing going past the five minute mark? Oh boy, the Tweets my fellow 5 OZ writer Samer Kadi would send out! I love obscure heavyweight fights as long as they don’t involve top heavyweights and it doesn’t get much more obscure than Rothwell vs. Valentijn.

Name one fighter who should get coal in his stocking this year.

Conlan: Chael Sonnen. Sure, he’s as entertaining a personality as you’ll find in MMA but in the context of coal we’re talking about naughty/nice. In 2011 Sonnen was convicted of money laundering, ratted out his associates in the same case to reduce punishment, served a half-year of his suspension for performance enhancing drug use, blatantly lied to the public, made statements about smacking another man’s wife on the ass, insulted an entire country, and beat up an American hero in Brian Stann. However, I’m pretty sure Sonnen would tell you that he is Santa Claus and the reason he gave himself a lump of coal is because he has plans on transforming it into a diamond with his mere grip.

Lambert: Miguel Torres. It hasn’t been a good year for the former WEC champion. He had an extremely boring with Antonio Banuelos in the first ever UFC bantamweight bout on PPV, he lost to Demetrious Johnson, and had another pretty lackluster fight against Nick Pace capped off with some wacky rolling kick. Then outside the cage, he got in trouble on twitter and was released from the company and made an example of. I like Torres but he didn’t deliver in the cage or out of it this year.

PHOTO CREDIT – STRIKEFORCE

Keyboard warrrrriors….come out to plaaaay-yay!

Better late than never, welcome to Grappling with Issues, our site’s regular weekly feature highlighting insight and opinion from myself and resident workhorse Jeremy Lambert whose general contributions and “Scorecard” event-breakdowns can be regularly found on Five Ounces. As always, just because we staffers get the fancy set-up, please don’t hesitate to offer your own take on the topics in the “Comments” section below.

TRUE/FALSE – Gegard Mousasi should fight as a middleweight.

Lambert TRUE. Although my answer would change if he successfully defeats Ovince St. Preux this weekend. Since I think OSP will pull off the upset though, and he’ll do so by using his size, strength, and wrestling, then it might be best for Mousasi to drop to middleweight where he won’t be at such a size disadvantage. Really though, until Mousasi improves his takedown defense, he’s going to have a tough time against an elite level fighter at any weight class. He’s a good fighter but a bit overrated given the level of competition that he’s faced.

Conlan: TRUE, though not necessarily for any of the reasons Lambert listed since I’m confident Mousasi will pull out a decision win over St. Preux and I can’t remember ever thinking he was THAT undersized for the light heavyweight division. I simply feel he’s shown he can make 185 in the past and should take advantage of a thinner division where he can shine rather than a shark-infested pool like 205 where any fighter other than Jon Jones can lose on any given Saturday.

Who should Frank Mir face in his next match-up?

Lambert: Cain Velasquez. Whether you like it or not, Mir is one win away from a title shot. He’s won three straight and there’s no one else in the division who is on a run equal to Mir’s. I know people will want to see Brock Lesnar vs. Mir 3 if Lesnar loses, but matching up a guy whose lost two straight against a guy whose won three straight isn’t good match-making, even if it would do a huge PPV number. Although Cain is coming off a loss, it was a quick TKO and there’s not much top level depth at heavyweight so a win for Cain over a top fighter like Mir could definitely earn him another title shot.

Conlan: I hadn’t thought of Velasquez but I love the match-up. Fabricio Werdum might also be an interesting option if he gets by Roy Nelson in early February. He’s got BJJ on par with Mir’s if not better and has improved as a striker since his first run in the UFC. He’s also a big guy meaning he’d match up well physically with Mir too.

Cris “Cyborg” Santos will be MORE/LESS dominant at bantamweight than she is as a featherweight.

Lambert: More, pending she can make weight and not be completely drained on fight night. She’s still going to be bigger than everyone in the division and that’s what has allowed her to dominate at 145 like she has. It also doesn’t hurt that she’s a talented fighter who hits like a truck, is a good striker, seems to have a good chin, has solid takedown defense, and an above average ground game. She already destroyed Marloes Coenen, who may have been undersized at 145, but if Santos drops to 135, then everyone will be undersize compared to her.

Conlan: Less. I think the “pending” Jeremy added could be a huge factor since she’s already said making 145 can be a struggle at times. Even if she slims down and is a similar competitor at bantamweight I think the divisional depth has to be taken into account. With fighters like Sarah Kaufman, Liz Carmouche, Ronda Rousey, and Miesha Tate waiting in the wings “Cyborg” has a much harder road ahead of her than she did prior.

Most likely to lose in 2012: Anderson Silva, Georges St. Pierre, or Jon Jones?

Conlan: St. Pierre. Silva already took Chael Sonnen’s best and still stopped him, while I don’t see Mark Munoz or Michael Bisping posing much of a threat to him on any front. Jones certainly has a few challenges in front of him as well in terms of Rashad Evans/Phil Davis and Dan Henderson but, similarly to Silva, I also don’t see him stumbling against anyone in the bunch. That leaves St. Pierre who will face either Nick Diaz or Carlos Condit when he returns to the ring late in the second-half of 2012. Though I think GSP certainly has what it takes to beat either, when they lock horns next year he’ll be coming off an eighteen-month layoff and testing out a new knee as well. Based on those factors I think he’s definitely at risk of losing his belt, at least in comparison to Jones/Silva.

Lambert: I’m not sure “Bones” Jones will ever lose again, much less in 2012. Silva will have a tough test against either Sonnen or Munoz, both of whom are great wrestlers, and Sonnen, who has relentless ground and pound or Munoz, who has brutal ground and pound. Still, I have to agree with Bren that GSP is the most likely of the three to lose thanks in large part to the layoff and knee surgery. Diaz and Condit aren’t really great welcome back gifts for “Rush” given their ability to take a shot and just keep walking forward with an aggressive style that give plenty of fighters fits.

Will UFC pick up Gilbert Melendez if he wins tonight?

Conlan: Yes. I know Dana White came out recently and said Strikeforce fighters are staying put but Melendez is the #2 lightweight in MMA. As such, why would Zuffa keep a guy with his credentials in a lesser organization as opposed to pairing him with the UFC’s 155-pound elite. In baseball terms, it would be akin to having Albert Pujols play for your AAA team as a means of establishing the smaller squad rather than calling him up to shine in “the show” to play against comparable talent.

Lambert: I sure hope so. Not just because Melendez is one of the top lightweights in the world, but also because, who the hell is left for him to fight in Strikeforce? As much as I’d love to see a third fight between him and Josh Thomson, Josh is coming off a loss (not like that matters in Strikeforce) and I’m fairly certain he’ll just get injured before the fight anyway. Point is, there’s no one to challenge Melendez in Strikeforce. Even  Masvidal seems like a stretch, although I’m pretty excited for this weekends tilt.

BUY/SELL – Miguel Torres will be back in the UFC by 2013.

Conlan: BUY. Torres was cut from the roster based on a bad joke and his lack of accountability in its aftermath, not because he didn’t perform up to par inside the Octagon. He’s not a drug-user or criminal – he’s just a guy who made a few mistakes. If Torres picks up a few wins outside of the UFC and toes the line outside of the ring I can definitely see him getting a second chance. At 40-4, and with the bantamweight division needing as many stars as possible, it makes too much sense not to do.

Lambert: BUY. Of course he’ll be back. Dana kind of sorta proved a point by making an example out of him and now he’ll forgive him. In fact, I think he’ll be back after just one victory in a smaller promotion, as long as he doesn’t say something stupid between now and then or sign with Bellator. I’d advise Miguel to spend less time on twitter though, because with the amount he tweets and the amount of his Tweets that are sarcastic or funny to him, he’s bound to get himself into more trouble.

PHOTO CREDIT – STRIKEFORCE/UFC

Keyboard warrrrriors….come out to plaaaay-yay!

Welcome to Grappling with Issues, our site’s regular weekly feature highlighting insight and opinion from myself and resident workhorse Jeremy Lambert whose general contributions and “Scorecard” event-breakdowns can be regularly found on Five Ounces. As always, just because we staffers get the fancy set-up, please don’t hesitate to offer your own take on the topics in the “Comments” section below.

True/False – Michael Bisping will fight for a UFC title in 2012.

Lambert: False. Not unless Dana White listens to BJ Penn and adopts regional champions. Then I’m sure Bisping will fight for the “UFC England” title since he is the company’s biggest overseas star. First, he has to beat Demian Maia, which I’m not 100% sure he’ll be able to do. If he’s able to do that, he’ll still be behind the winner of Chael Sonnen vs. Mark Munoz, which means he’ll either have to fight again in mid-2012 or sit on the shelf for most of the year. My guess is that he’ll choose to fight again since he didn’t look so good after sitting on the shelf most of 2011. So if he fights again, chances are he’ll fight the winner of Vitor Belfort and Anthony Johnson, and I’d favor both of those guys over Bisping.

Fact is, Bisping will have to win two more fights against two top middleweights in 2012 before he thinks about challenging for the title and I’m not sure he can do that. That’s also assuming that he and the champion stay healthy to possibly meet at the end of the year.

Conlan: True. All Bisping needs to do is beat Maia who he should have no problem with unless he forgets who he’s fighting and decides to dive into the crafty Brazilian’s guard. Maia is smaller, has vastly inferior stand-up, and isn’t much of a wrestler. He’s just terrific on the ground. He just won’t be able to get/keep things there in the same way Jason Miller wasn’t.

If Bisping takes Maia out I absolutely think he’ll sit and wait for a title-bout even if it means twiddling his thumbs for nine months. A victory over Maia would be his fifth straight with all of the wins coming against respectable competition, so he’d definitely have earned one in comparison to his peers, and he’s worked too hard for too long to risk fighting for the belt unless forced to. As I think the UFC recognizes the marketability of matching him up against Anderson Silva, or Sonnen if he beats “The Spider,” they will push to make it happen if possible rather than jeopardize the potential pairing.

And no, I didn’t list Munoz in the equation because Dana White recently backed off the notion of him getting a shot at Silva’s strap even with a win over Sonnen (which is unlikely in my opinion but certainly possible).

What should the UFC do with Dan Henderson now that Rashad Evans vs. Phil Davis has been named as a #1 contender’s fight?

Lambert: Give him as much time off as possible. After his war with “Shogun” Rua, Henderson has earned some time off to heal up. That said, I’m not buying that Davis will be the #1 contender if he beats Evans. I know UFC is saying that the winner of the fight will get a title shot, but Dana said the same thing prior to Henderson vs. Rua and now look where we are. If Evans wins, I’m sure he’ll get a title shot, but if Davis wins, do you really think they’ll give him a title shot over Henderson? I’m skeptical.

If Evans wins though, Henderson should sit on the sidelines, maybe work on some new things, and most importantly study all the new footage he’ll have of his upcoming opponent.

Conlan: Giving him a nice vacation certainly couldn’t hurt. Fighting three times in 2011, Henderson was as busy as any of his peers who have a decade less wear-and-tear to contend with. Letting him rest for six months might not be a bad thing at all, at least if Evans beats Davis since I agree “Mr. Wonderful” isn’t guaranteed a title-shot anymore than Munoz is (and perhaps less so with Henderson waiting in the wings).

Not including this weekend, how many more times with Tito Ortiz fight before he retires?

Lambert: Once. Since I think he’ll lose this weekend, I think he’ll only have one more fight left in him and that will probably come against Forrest Griffin in the rubber match. I wouldn’t pick him to win that bout either, so with one win in his last nine bouts, I’m not sure why he’d stick around.

I think win or lose against Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, he’ll fight Griffin next and that bout will really determine his future. While I still think a loss puts an end to his career, if he wins, then everything swings the other way because it would be three wins in four bouts, which, believe it or not, would put him right in the mix for a title shot.

Conlan: Also once and he’s said as much himself with there only being a single scrap left on his contract. I’m glad Jeremy pointed out the likelihood that Ortiz might reconsider too if he beats Nogueira this weekend and Griffin (or Rich Franklin) in his next bout. I don’t see him as a “retire on top” guy so much as one who would extend his career by a bout or two if he was really within arms’ reach of the divisional title. However, if he stumbles at UFC 140 he’ll definitely call it quits win/lose in his next appearance.

Which Nogueira has a better chance of winning this weekend: Rodrigo or Rogerio?

Conlan: I’ll go with the Rogerio Nogueira or as we call him in the South, “Lil Nog”. Tito Ortiz’s only claim to fame over the past few years has to do with catching Ryan Bader, then submitting him. Other than that he’s lost with consistency. If Matt Hamill can beat him soundly so can Nogueira, while “Minotauro” faces Frank Mir who has looked far better than “The People’s Champ” (shudders) as of late.

Lambert: MINUS TWO to Bren for actually calling Ortiz by that nickname. I do agree with him that “Lil Nog” has the better chance though. I’m actually picking both Nogueira brothers to win, but I feel far more confident about Rogerio defeating Tito than I do about Rodrigo defeating Mir for various reasons. Tito’s only real shot at winning is to get takedowns with consistency and damage Nogueira on the ground. If he gasses (likely) or fails on those takedowns (also likely) then he’ll be stuck striking with a much better boxer. At least Mir is a competent striker who can hang with “Big Nog” on the feet, has the power to finish him, or can win a decision if he takes the first two rounds and then gasses in the third, which I kind of expect him to do.

Will Jon Jones finish Lyoto Machida at UFC 140?

Conlan: Yes. Machida works primarily from the outside where Jones thrives. I absolutely see “Bones” catching him with enough shots to drop him to the mat or at least take him down, then pound him out from above. Machida was finished by Mauricio Rua so it’s clearly an achievable feat.

Lambert: If it happens, I think it’ll happen late. Machida is a very patient fighter. The one time he did turn up the aggression was against “Shogun” in the second fight and we all saw how that turned out. So I doubt he’ll make that mistake again, even though being aggressive is probably his best option against Jones. Anyway, I don’t think Jones will finish Machida. I see this being a slow, mental fight, where both guys take their time as neither man will want to make a mistake. Jones will stay on the outside, at his range, but he’ll be weary of Machida’s speed and timing on the counters, which will make him pick his shots a bit more than he did against past opponents. I think the fight will be pretty underwhelming if you’re looking for an action packed fight, but a great human chess match if you’re into those things.

Are you more likely to watch Bellator or TUF 15 on Friday’s in 2012?

Conlan: I’m going to watch both because I’m fairly certain the shows won’t conflict with each other. There’s no reason Bellator can’t run their events from 8:00-10:00 PM EST with TUF 15 showing from 10:00-11:00 PM EST as it normally does. However, if forced to choose I’d probably go with Bellator and tape TUF 15 since you’re talking about a full card with respectable talent facing off in comparison to a single bout with up-and-coming guys surrounded by “reality show” fixings.

Lambert: For some reason I had the idea that they’d be running head to head, but Bren is right, Bellator should run 8-10 and TUF 15 should run 10-11. If Bellator is dumb enough to run their events from 9-11 then that’s a terrible mistake on their part. Anyway, I have two different answers so here goes:

First, I’ll be watching both since I have two (now three) TVs up in my man cave. This answer was for you Samer Kadi.

Second, I’ll be watching whichever one Bren tells me to cover for the site. Mr. Conlan is usually a fair man (except when he forces me to watch Natasha Wicks videos when all I want to do is listen to my Taylor Swift CD) so I’m sure he’ll give me the option of covering one over the other, but like a soldier, if he needs me to cover Bellator instead of TUF one night, I’ll be all over Bellator like I’m Darrelle Revis on Chad Ochocinco.

PHOTO CREDIT – UFC

Keyboard warrrrriors….come out to plaaaay-yay!

Welcome to Grappling with Issues, our site’s regular weekly feature highlighting insight and opinion from myself and resident workhorse Jeremy Lambert whose general contributions and “Scorecard” event-breakdowns can be regularly found on Five Ounces. As always, just because we staffers get the fancy set-up, please don’t hesitate to offer your own take on the topics in the “Comments” section below.

Would you have cut Chris Leben after his latest run-in with drug/alcohol abuse?

Lambert: No, I would get him some help. Leben has never been the most mentally stable person and even though we hear stories about how he’s doing better and how he’s turned his life around. I think being popped for pain killers proves that to be false. Painkiller addiction is a serious problem and one that Leben hopefully beats. To beat that though, he’ll need to go to some sort of counseling, not only for his addiction but for all the other problems that he’s had throughout his life. This isn’t a one off with Leben like it is with other guys. It’s clear that he needs help in his life and I hope UFC officials push him into taking the right steps to truly turn his life around.

Conlan:No, though I would have made him fully aware that any other drug-related transgression such would result in his immediate termination (even a DWI or public intoxication). I might even consider implementing internal testing because the UFC is putting itself at risk of being considered an enabler. Like Jeremy said, Leben needs help and the UFC needs to reach out and give it to him if nobody else will because he clearly can’t do it on his own.

The reality is the UFC has some culpability in the situation because they’ve created an environment where things that would result in most folks being fired don’t have long-term repercussions. They need to be cognizant of the perception it creates, the responsibility they have as his employer, and understand the company/sport could suffer a major blow to their reputation if Leben slips up again to the point someone’s life is dramatically affected whether his own, a friend/family member, or even an innocent victim.

On a scale from 1-10 (ten being the best), how would you rate TUF 14?

Lambert: I guess I’ll say a 7 or 8. Honestly though, despite watching every episode and even doing the live blog for the site, I almost immediately forget about the show and what happened on it after it goes off air and never think about it again until the following week. This hasn’t been a bad season though. I can’t really remember a bad fight, there have been some funny pranks and lines, and the coaches have built a nice rivalry. So it’s been a fine season, but the show ran its course for me a long time ago and now it’s something that I watch mainly because I need and have to, not because I really want to.

Conlan: I’d go in the 7-8 range as well for the reasons Lambert listed, though I won’t go as far as to say I’m jaded to the point I don’t still enjoy the show. I like learning about what makes fighters tick and can always appreciate a good throwdown. I appreciated the qualifying round being set inside Mandalay Bay and the frenetic pace set by most. The fighters were talented, many of whom I can see sticking around the UFC (especially once flyweight is opened up) for the next few years, and the coaches’ personalities made for an entertaining season. All in all a solid way to close out TUF on Spike TV.

TRUE/FALSE – Michael Bisping should get a title-shot if he beats Jason Miller at the Ultimate Fighter 14 Finale?

Lambert: FALSE. Unless the winner of Mark Munoz vs. Chael Sonnen goes down with an injury, they’re pretty much guaranteed to get the next crack at Anderson Silva. My guess is that Bisping, should he beat Miller, will face the winner of Vitor Belfort vs. Anthony Johnson. UFC usually holds a show in England at the end of the year, so if Bisping keeps winning and the timing works out, we could see “The Count” challenging for the title in his home country at the end of 2012.

Conlan: FALSE, but only because Silva is expected to be out until June and Bisping needs to stay active. I definitely think a fourth straight win coupled with the marketability of the match-up is enough to merit a title-shot for Bisping, at least in the context of UFC criteria, and I know a lot of people who would buy the PPV just in hopes of seeing “The Count” get knocked silly. However, Bisping was out for a major chunk of time in 2011 due to TUF 14 and I don’t want the same to be true in 2012. As such, I’d put him up against Sonnen or Munoz (the former has implied he’s already lined up for the winner of Bisping/Miller) and let that fight serve to determine the “lucky” individual who draws Silva in Brazil next summer.

Better chance of winning this weekend: TJ Dillashaw or Dennis Bermudez?

Conlan: Dillashaw. He has the fundamentals and wrestling to hang with John Dodson, plus a camp full of killers at Team Alpha Male, while Bermudez is facing an absolute beast in the form of Diego Brandao. Bryan Caraway, who is a solid grappler, couldn’t deal with the Brazilian’s fury despite repeated attempts to take him down and I see the same being true with Bermudez (a wrestler by trade).

Lambert: I think Dodson is a tougher match up for Dillashaw than Diego is for Dennis. I know Diego is a wild man with plenty of power but I’m still not sold on his cardio or ground game. I mean, the dude has a 13-7 record. It’s not like he’s some undefeated monster who no one has figured out. I think guys got it in their head that Diego couldn’t be beat and so they lost. I’m pretty sure we can all agree that was the case with Caraway. Dennis showed that he has a ton of heart and even if he starts slow, I think he can come back and win.

Besides Mike Chandler vs. Eddie Alvarez, what was the most memorable moment from Bellator Season 5?

Conlan: Other than the ring-girl vs. ring-girl grappling sessions? Alexis Vila knocking out Joe Warren is right up there for sure. In the past Warren had always been able to overcome adversity, even landing a few highlight reel finishes along the way, but such was not to be when he ran into fellow Olympian Vila. Early into the fight Vila landed that beautiful left that sent Warren down to the canvas on his back, arms extended in the air, and that’s all she wrote on one of the greatest knockouts of 2011.

Lambert: Alright, I’m cheating here but I’m going to say the entire welterweight tournament. I realize that seven fights that spread across three events isn’t really a “moment” but this is my portion of the column and I’ll play by my own rules.

I thought the 170-pound tournament was fantastic from start to finish. We had some close fights in the early rounds and then the final three fights all ended in spectacular fashion, including the finals when Douglas Lima knocked out Ben Saunders. I know it’s tough to get behind these Bellator tournaments because they all scream “second rate” since UFC boasts the best fighters in the world, especially at 170, but this was a great tournament that showcased some lesser known fighters in MMA.

What UFC 144 fight featuring a Japanese fighter are you most looking forward to?

Conlan: Hatsu Hioki vs. Bart Palaszewski. There are some other good options but for my money Palaszewski’s pairing with Hioki is the cream of the crop. Both fighters are well-rounded, veteran competitors who are coming off big wins. The winner of this bout could be on the cusp of a title-shot, possibly even earning one depending on how things unfold for Hioki. I’d definitely see it as a “Fight of the Night” type match-up on most cards and would here too if the lineup didn’t boast Ben Henderson vs. Frankie Edgar and Anthony Pettis vs. Joe Lauzon.

Lambert: Obviously I’m looking forward to the “greatest fighter in Japanese history,” Yushin Okami, fighting on the undercard against Tim Boetsch.

In all seriousness, I’m pretty excited for Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Jake Shields because it’s a huge fight for both men. Akiyama, who hasn’t looked good at all in the UFC, is in desperate need of a win and is cutting down to 170 in order to find some success there while Shields, once considered the second best welterweight in the world, is in desperate need of a victory after dropping back to back fights. It’s a must-win fight for both guys and it’s very possible that it’ll be the only fight where the Japanese fans may actually favor the foreigner.

PHOTO CREDIT – UFC

Keyboard warrrrriors….come out to plaaaay-yay!

Welcome to Grappling with Issues, our site’s regular weekly feature highlighting insight and opinion from myself and resident workhorse Jeremy Lambert whose general contributions and “Scorecard” event-breakdowns can be regularly found on Five Ounces. As always, just because we staffers get the fancy set-up, please don’t hesitate to offer your own take on the topics in the “Comments” section below.

Are you hoping to eventually see a rematch between Mauricio Rua and Dan Henderson or would you prefer to not risk tainting their excellent encounter at UFC 139?

Lambert: I wouldn’t mind a rematch as long as it makes sense. Right now, it seems that Henderson is going to get a title-fight in his next bout, so an immediate rematch is out the window. But, if Henderson loses in that match-up and wins his next bout, plus Rua rattles off a win or two, or if Henderson captures the title and Rua earns a title shot, I’m not against it or anything. I just don’t want to see them do a rematch for the sake of doing a rematch though, something I don’t think will happen since there are plenty of fights at 205 for each man. All of that said, I don’t think we’ll see these two clashes in the Octagon again.

Conlan: I’m torn. On one hand, Rua vs. Henderson was unquestionably excellent – a “Fight of the Decade” type affair. On the other, it would be nearly impossible to top from an entertainment standpoint. To expect a repeat performance would akin to telling Leonardo Da Vinci to paint another Mona Lisa rather than enjoying the masterpiece he’d already put on canvas. Like Lambert I suppose I’ll say I’m open to the idea if divisional contendership dictates it but otherwise I’m content with having seen one of the greatest fights in MMA history, letting each man move on to new challenges (especially with Henderson likely only having a few more years in the sport).

Who would you put Wanderlei Silva against in his next fight?

Lambert: I talked about this with Samer on the podcast and my feeling is that Wanderlei is more or less a money weight right now. He won’t be fighting for the title any time soon so UFC is just best off giving him fights against top name guys in order to draw some money. So going by that, I really want to see Silva vs. Forrest Griffin. Both guys are fan-favorites, they put on good fights, and it’s a bout that could go either way. It’s a fight, much like Shogun vs. “Hendo”, that fans probably aren’t thinking about but when announced it would definitely create a buzz.

Conlan: For the record I have zero interest in seeing Silva vs. Griffin, a guy who outweighs Silva by at least thirty pounds on any given day. I’m also not sure how Jeremy can view “The Axe Murderer as a “money-weight” when he’s shown no interest in returning to 205 pounds where he was always undersized to begin with.

Moving on, I think a logical opponent would be the winner of Anthony Johnson vs. Vitor Belfort. Silva/Belfort have spoken before about re-visiting their 1998 meeting where “The Phenom” laid Wanderlei out in less than a minute, plus stylistically it would be something earning fans’ attention. Silva/Johnson would give “Rumble” a second opponent with the potential to further establish him as a middleweight, as well as a flawed adversary “Wand” could potentially take out. I’d also love to see the UFC rip Robbie Lawler out of Strikeforce limbo as they’ve did with Cung Le and put him in the Octagon against Silva. Talk about a buzz-inducing bout!

Name something relating to MMA in 2011 that you are thankful for…

Lambert: I feel like I should be creamed-corny here and say something like, “All the great fighters and fights they put on” or “Bren, podcast-partner Samer Kadi, and the 5OZ readers for being awesome” or even “Brittney Palmer and Jade Bryce” but I’m going to avoid going in that direction.

I’m thankful for my DVR and the internet. There has been more MMA than ever in 2011 thanks to the abundance of promotions/outlets, and without a DVR or the internet there’s no way I’d be able to watch it all. I try to watch damn near every single MMA event that I can, even ones that aren’t really on the radar of many fans, and it’d be impossible if I didn’t have over 300 hours of space on my DVR or the internet to hunt down all the fights and events. Plus, thanks to my DVR and internet, I’m able to re-watch all the great fights over and over again.

Conlan: Napoleon Dynamite’s brother approves of Jeremy’s affinity for technology. I, on the other hand, approve of the man himself. I definitely don’t say it enough but I’m absolutely thankful for Lambert’s contributions to 5 OZ. Without his hard work this site would not be half of what it is and that’s not hyperbole. Truly, his presence here has been crucial to our success over the past year and it should be noted.

I’m thankful for countless other things combining MMA/2011 too such as the expansion of the UFC back into Brazil/Japan, the FOX deal, the numerous men/women who are not just Mixed Martial Artists but true role models, the people who have allowed me to write about something I love including you folks reading these lines, the passion of guys like Dana White, Bellator’s presence on the scene…honestly, the list could go on and on and on and…well, you get the point.

What percentage would you give Urijah Faber to win his rubber match against Dominick Cruz?

Conlan: 50%. I don’t think it’s physically possible for Cruz or Faber to improve much in the amount of time between their bout at UFC 132 and early 2012 when the bantamweight rivals face off for a third time. It’s not as though either is going to depart from their regular training home to add a new layer to their attack. They’ll enter the fight highly conditioned, quick, and ready to mix up strikes with grappling as was the case in July. Since that match-up could have gone either way I expect the same to be true with what will hopefully be the conclusion to a trilogy.

Lambert: I’ll go with 55% just because I think Faber will win the third fight thanks in large part to how the second fight went and how Demetrious Johnson fared against Cruz. I’m not really sure Cruz can do many things different against Urijah than he did at UFC 132, while I know Faber can do a couple of things different against Dominick. I think we’ll see a much more aggressive “California Kid” in the rubber match and when he has Cruz hurt, he’ll be more likely to go in for the kill.

How would Bellator lightweight champ Mike Chandler fare in the UFC?

Conlan: Extremely well. He is young, powerful, comes from a great camp (Xtreme Couture), has been labeled as having a terrific attitude in the gym when it comes to learning/improving, and is an accomplished amateur wrestler with ever-improving stand-up. Beyond that, as evident in his incredible performance against Eddie Alvarez at Bellator 58, Chandler has a tremendous amount of heart and enough gas to weather any storm. He reminds me of a stronger Frankie Edgar.

Lambert: I say this all the time but I truly believe that if you took the 32 best lightweights in the world and held a March Madness style tournament, you’d get a different result every single time. That’s just how even and deep the pool at 155 is.

So because of that, I’d have to say that Chandler would fare just as well as any other top lightweight. He’d win a good amount of fights and he’ll undoubtedly have a bad night or two and lose a couple of fights. And he won’t lose because the talent isn’t there, he’ll lose because every other lightweight is so talented that they’ll just have his number on that night.

Will Fedor Emelianenko fight in the Octagon before he retires?

Conlan: No. Emelianenko is burdened with M-1 Global’s requirement of cross-promotion and if the UFC wasn’t ready to give on that front when the iconic Russian was seemingly invincible they most certainly won’t now. Beyond that, M-1’s management have already left the bitter taste of week-old borscht in White’s mouth after their previous negotiations making it even more unlikely the divide between both sides will be bridged anytime soon.

Lambert: I really want to say yes, but I have to go with no as well. I’d like to believe that Fedor’s management realize that he’s not the cash cow that he once was but he could still make a good amount of money as long as he’s in the UFC and that they’d relax their stance on “extras” in Fedor’s contract, but that thought was quickly shot down with M-1′s latest co-promotion attempt asking for a Fedor vs. Cain Velasquez fight. As long as M-1 continues to believe that co-promotion benefits them and the UFC – it doesn’t benefit the UFC at all – then they’ll want to co-promote. And as long as they want to co-promote then Dana won’t do business with them.

PHOTO CREDIT – UFC

Keyboard warrrrriors….come out to plaaaay-yay!

Welcome to Grappling with Issues, our site’s regular weekly feature highlighting insight and opinion from myself and resident workhorse Jeremy Lambert whose general contributions and “Scorecard” event-breakdowns can be regularly found on Five Ounces. As always, just because we staffers get the fancy set-up, please don’t hesitate to offer your own take on the topics in the “Comments” section below.

Will Cain Velasquez earn his second shot at the title in 2012?

Lambert: This is tough because you never know how things will play out with injuries, but I’m going to say that Cain might earn another title shot in 2012 though might not fight for the title until 2013. The way I see it, he’s going to need at least two wins before he gets another title shot, get through those fights healthy, and hope the champion is also healthy during that stretch as well. I’m just not convinced that will happen, especially given how the bug has gone around the UFC this past year.

Conlan: Yes. If recent history has shown us anything it’s that a guy like Velasquez, who has been hyped to death as an uber-talented fan-favorite, only needs to win a single time before receiving another crack at the championship. Brock Lesnar got fast-tracked to one, as will Chael Sonnen apparently, so why wouldn’t Velasquez too as long as he picks up a win over a reputable contender like Cheick Kongo, the winner of Frank Mir vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, or even the loser of Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem (all of whom I could see him beating)?

True or False – You knew there was a Strikeforce Challengers event Friday night before reading this line.

Lambert: True, but only because I put the MMA on TV schedule together every Sunday, which allows me to know every MMA event, no matter how small, that ends up on television. That said, I can’t tell you who is fighting other than Antwain Britt, Ronda Rousey, and Derek Brunson, and I know that none of them are fighting each other. Of course I’ll watch it, but it’s pretty clear that Strikeforce is dead in the water and the Challengers series has been dead for awhile now.

Conlan: Also true, though with an added caveat in line with Lambert’s in that I wrote something earlier this week blasting Strikeforce for the lack of promotion where Challengers events are concerned. For whatever reasons, the company has ignored basic, simple marketing strategies like sending out press releases or holding conference calls. Last week there was a single original article on the Strikeforce website selling the event and literally 3/50+ Tweets mentioned the actual event. The Strikeforce Challengers Series could be used as an excellent tool to introduce up-and-coming fighters, much like WEC was, yet for whatever reason Zuffa chooses to bury it through their relative indifference. It’s truly no wonder the shows have been tanking as of late.

Do you expect Wanderlei Silva to retire if he loses to Cung Le at UFC 139?

Lambert: Should he? Yes. Do I expect him to? No. This is an extremely winnable fight for Silva because, lets face it, Le isn’t all that great of a fighter. He’s very flashy and has entertaining fights but he hasn’t fought good competition and he’s almost exclusively a kicker. If Silva loses, and even worse gets knocked out, it’ll pretty much signal the end for him as a competitive fighter. That doesn’t mean he’ll retire though. Given Silva’s mentality, he’ll want to keep fighting until he can’t walk and if UFC wants nothing more to do with him after Saturday, he can always head back to Japan.

Conlan: No, not in the least bit. Silva himself has said he feels healthy and wants to keep fighting, explaining in a conference call this week that every fighter gets caught, citing Velasquez’s loss to Junior dos Santos, but that it doesn’t necessarily mean the end of the road for that particular athlete. Like Lambert, I can absolutely see Silva wowing the fans in Japan putting dents in a few tomato cans even if the UFC refuses to let him grace the Octagon ever again.

Should the winner of “Shogun” Rua vs. Dan Henderson jump Rashad Evans for a title-shot?

Conlan: Should – no. Will – yes. Since “Sugar” ‘Shad hasn’t been booked for a bout yet he’ll essentially be in the same position as Rua/Henderson as far as being ready for Jon Jones/Lyoto Machida in the first quarter of 2012 and he’s been in line for another crack at a championship since last year. The primary difference will relate to activity since Rua/Henderson have fought more frequently in 2011, in part due to Evans’ decision to wait for an injured “Shogun” to recover only to ultimately get hurt himself. The notion Evans fought in August after fifteen months off and would be sidelined for another 4-6 months while waiting for his crack at the belt probably won’t sit well with Zuffa brass, hence the reason the winner of this weekend’s main event will draw a title-shot next rather than Rashad.

Lambert: I have to agree with Bren. The winner of Rua and Henderson shouldn’t jump Rashad, but they most likely will. We know Dana is great at holding grudges and I think he holds a huge grudge against Evans for waiting for his title shot. Why else would he have Rashad fight in August when Jones was ready to fight in September or why else would he have Jones fight at UFC 140 when Rashad was ready to fight at UFC 141? It’s not like the winner of Shogun vs. Hendo wouldn’t be deserving, although if Shogun wins I’m not sure how many fans will be clamoring for a third bout against Machida or a second bout with Jones given how their previous fights went.

Over/Under – 25,000 buys for M-1: Fedor vs. Monson…

Conlan: I don’t know a ton about buyrates but I’ll say “under” because, as I recall, Affliction was happy to draw 100,000 and they had the added benefit of MMA’s popularity skyrocketing, the hype of their brand, a much better card, and a start-time more conducive to watching MMA than watching the sun rise. There is nothing appealing about M-1’s offering, even in the context of Emelianenko having lost his last three fights and taking on a solid but not necessarily “sexy” opponent, so I have a hard time believing more than a few thousand people will bite the bullet to watch things live on PPV at the crack of dawn rather than wake up at a normal time and rely on the internet for results/video. Of course, I know my counterpart in this argument will be one of them…

Lambert: Amazingly, I won’t be purchasing this PPV, because according to my cable provider, this PPV isn’t even available for me to purchase. I strongly believe that this event will be lucky to do 100 buys. Not only does it not appear to be available to all cable subscribers, but, as Bren mentioned, the time slot (7AM EST on a Sunday) is an absolutely terrible time slot given that people like to sleep in on Sunday or, if they do get up early, it’s probably because they’re heading to church. Furthermore, it’s coming on the same weekend as UFC 139 and WWE Survivor Series, so if you’re a person that can only afford one PPV a month, you’re definitely choosing one of those two over M-1. And normally a WWE PPV wouldn’t take away from a MMA PPV, but because Survivor Series marks the wrestling return of “The Rock”, that’s one PPV that could take away buys from not only M-1, but UFC as well.

Will Eddie Alvarez retain his Bellator lightweight title this weekend against Mike Chandler?

Conlan: Yes, though I can see Chandler going five rounds against him based on mental toughness and a wrestling base opening up the possibility of stalling on the ground to recover if needed. In my eyes Alvarez is easily a “Top 5” lightweight, while Chandler may be there one day but is still polishing his game rather than entering his prime. Alvarez has handled grapplers before and his boxing is some of the best in the sport. It should be a great fight for sure but one with Alvarez ultimately exiting the ring as champion.

Lambert: I’m giving Chandler a better chance than most because I think Alvarez is a flawed fighter, especially on his feet where everyone praises him, but at the end of the day, Alvarez is the better fighter. He’s well rounded and should be able to stuff the takedowns of Chandler. He’s actually vulnerable on the feet because he’s not a good defensive striker, gets hit a lot, and his chin is a bit questionable, although he does recover well. If Chandler can mix things up, score some takedowns, and keep Alvarez off balance on the feet then I like his chances but I think Alvarez’ experience will pay off and he’ll take a highly competitive decision.

PHOTO CREDIT – UFC

Keyboard warrrrriors….come out to plaaaay-yay!

Welcome to Grappling with Issues, our site’s regular weekly feature highlighting insight and opinion from myself and resident workhorse Jeremy Lambert whose general contributions and “Scorecard” event-breakdowns can be regularly found on Five Ounces. As always, just because we staffers get the fancy set-up, please don’t hesitate to offer your own take on the topics in the “Comments” section below.

After his win over Brad Pickett, should Renan Barao leapfrog Urijah Faber in the contendership picture if “The California Kid” defeats Brian Bowles at UFC 139?

Lambert: No, and honestly, I’m getting a little annoyed at the people who are suggesting it. While Barao’s win was very impressive, lets put it in perspective. He beat Brad Pickett, who no one considered a top 10 bantamweight, and people are only bringing this up because it was the co-main event on an extremely weak card. If this was a Facebook prelim, which it would have been on any other major UFC event, no one would be talking about Barao facing Dominick Cruz in his next fight. I take nothing away from Barao, he did what he needed to do, but he needs at least one more win over a top fighter before I’m ready to see him fight Cruz.

Furthermore, UFC is a business and Barao vs. Cruz is destined to be a headlining fight on FX while Cruz vs. Faber could headline a PPV.

Conlan: Yes, he should. The only truly valid point in Lambert’s response has to do with the marketability of Cruz/Barao in comparison to Cruz/Faber (though I don’t think it could headline a PPV, only co-headline one). Beyond that, a lot people actually did have Pickett among their “Top 10” bantamweights prior to this past weekend as he’d won ten of eleven coming into UFC 138 with a decision loss to Scott Jorgensen being his only stumble. Also take into consideration Barao has won 27 straight fights, has an entertaining style, and tends to finish opponents more often than not.

Faber, on the other hand, will have won a single fight since losing to Cruz at UFC 132.

There’s no reason the UFC should risk Barao’s streak against a guy like Demetrious Johnson or Miguel Torres when they could slot him into a bout with Cruz if Faber takes Bowles out next Saturday night. On the flipside, if Bowles comes out with the “W” and avoids pulverizing one of his paws, it’s all a moot point since he lost his title to “The Dominator” due to injury rather than actually being beaten and has already triumphed in two fights since.

What, if anything, would it take for you to consider Mark Munoz the top challenger to Anderson Silva’s title?

Lambert: A better post-fight interview. That was the softest challenge of a champion I think I’ve ever seen. I’m not saying Munoz needed to be Nick Diaz or Chael Sonnen, but at least act like you’re actually interested in beating the guy up. While Munoz’ victory was impressive, I was less interested in a potential fight between him and “The Spider” after he spoke with Joe Rogan.

That aside, Munoz needs another win over a top contender. If Michael Bisping beats Jason Miller, Munoz vs. Bisping would be a good #1 contender fight and there’d be a nice little story there since Miller and Munoz train together.

Conlan: Tremendous answer! Munoz was absolutely a bit too apologetic in calling Silva out and didn’t do his cause a lot of good because of it. It was actually symptomatic of his lack of microphone skills in general, something I noticed while watching a number of pre-fight interviews with the “Filipino Wrecking Machine”.

For me it would take another big win to cap off his current run. Bisping would be a solid option if he beats Miller, while others could include the winner of Vitor Belfort vs. Anthony Johnson, Wanderlei Silva if he gets by Cung Le, or even Brian Stann. Plus, with all signs pointing to the middleweight champ facing Sonnen in February it doesn’t seem like Munoz has any other route to take than agreeing to another bout anyways.

Other than the obvious, what Facebook fight attached to UFC on FOX 1 should fans make it a point to tune in for?

Lambert: I’m assuming the obvious Facebook fight is Alex Caceres vs. Cole Escovedo. Right?

I know Bren is going to Pablo Garza vs. Dustin Poirier because I can read his mind, so I’ll leave that one to him and go with Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto vs. Darren Uyenoyama. I realize that I’m still living in the past with wanting “Kid” to be a threat in his division, but I don’t care. I always hold out hope for the older/more banged up fighters to return to form because it just makes for a good story. Plus, this is a winnable fight for Yamamoto. It’s not like Uyenoyama is a world beater, he hasn’t been all that active over the years, and he’ll be making his UFC debut.

Conlan: I did say, “other than the obvious”, didn’t I? Poirier/Garza should already be locked into the collective conscious of fans and shame on you if you aren’t among that group!

I’m actually going to go with DaMarques Johnson vs. Clay Harvison. Both are on the cusp of getting cut, so they have more to fight for than just a paycheck, and some form of stoppage almost seems to be a guarantee when considering nineteen of their twenty-one combined victories have involved a submission/TKO. They’re also well-rounded when it comes to finishing things off meaning the end could come at any time and from any position. Finally, each guy has a colorful personality and an interesting backstory, and the UFC’s elite club could always use more members with those qualities in addition to a genuine love of fighting.

Is Cain Velasquez vs. Junior dos Santos more likely to last one round or five rounds?

Conlan: Five. Both men understand what’s on the line and have an immense amount of respect for each other. I think the probability is high relating to the likelihood of some “feeling out” in the beginning, especially with both being boxers more so than brawlers. I also think Velasquez will be looking to take Dos Santos down rather than stand and bang it out, another factor making me believe this weekend’s historic title-fight will last longer than five minutes.

Lambert: If JDS wins, it’s more likely to go one round. If Velasquez wins, it’s more likely to go five. Since I’m picking Velasquez to win, and win by decision, I’m obviously under the belief that it’ll go five rounds. I could definitely see JDS catching Cain early though, especially if Cain shows any kind of rust after his 13 month layoff. If Cain can’t find his rhythm early or takes a sloppy shot, JDS has the power and timing to tag him right on the chin. And while I think Cain has a great chin and ability to recover, if JDS has him rocked, he’s not going to fold like Kongo did.

That said, I think Cain is able to shake off the rust almost immediately, use his wrestling and activity to grind out JDS along the cage and on the ground in the first couple of rounds, and then really turn it up in the late rounds with his superior cardio.

Who wins the two Bellator tournament finals this weekend?

Conlan: On the middleweight side I think Alexander Shlemenko is a lock to earn another showdown with Hector Lombard. No disrespect to Vitor Vianna, but Shlemenko is a cold-blooded killer in the ring. He has a ton of experience and can finish things from any position.

With the welterweights it’s a much harder fight to pick, as both Ben Saunders and Douglas Lima have a lot going for them and well-rounded arsenals to work with as well. The coin I just flipped tells me Saunders will take home the six-figure paycheck and title-shot in the end. He’s been in the zone as of late and Lima, while dominant, has been hurt a few times in the tournament and may not get a chance to make another comeback if “Killa B” stings him with a few knees.

Lambert: I’ve been riding with Saunders ever since the tournament was announced, so I can’t back away from that now. While Lima has looked impressive in his tournament run, I think Saunders is the more talented fighter and has been on fire since being cut by the UFC. While he’s always had good stand up, I was most impressed with fight against Luis Santos, where he attacked off his back and showed off a rubber guard that even had Eddie Bravo applauding.

I always seem to want to pick against Shlemenko and I’m done doing that, which probably means he’ll lose this Saturday. Vianna showed a lot in stopping Bryan Baker, but Shlemenko has a hell of a chin and never stops moving and spinning forward. If Vianna is able to get the fight to the ground, I think he can win this bout, but I’m not sure he’ll be able to handle the pressure of “Storm” and he’ll eventually fold.

Closer to a UFC return after Saturday’s performance: Andrei Arlovski or Tim Sylvia?

Conlan: Sylvia. While Arlovski’s win came in a more-convincing fashion and Sylvia put the “yack” in “The Maine-iac”, Tim-meh is 6-1 in his last seven fights and hasn’t ended up nose down on the canvas with nearly the frequency Arlovski has. The UFC shies away from glass jaws when possible, seeing them as the end of a fighter’s career, and Arlovski’s chin seems to be made out of Ming Dynasty Porcelain based on his recent history. The 35-year old is also actively lobbying for a return through media and Twitter which can’t hurt his cause either.

Lambert: Can I plead the fifth? I think the answer is Sylvia because when he’s in shape, he can be a competitive heavyweight and a guy who draws a reaction, even though that reaction is usually negative. While Arlovski’s chin is obviously a huge question, I’m more concerned with the fact that he’s turned into an extremely boring fighter in his last couple of fights. He might be more boring than Sylvia right now, which is really saying something. I say have Arlovski and Sylvia fight each other and then bring the winner back to fight the loser of Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem. Make it happen Joe Silva!

PHOTO CREDIT – UFC

Keyboard warrrrriors….come out to plaaaay-yay!

Welcome to Grappling with Issues, our site’s regular weekly feature highlighting insight and opinion from myself and resident workhorse Jeremy Lambert whose general contributions and “Scorecard” event-breakdowns can be regularly found on Five Ounces. As always, just because we staffers get the fancy set-up, please don’t hesitate to offer your own take on the topics in the “Comments” section below.

True/False – B.J. Penn will fight in 2012.

Lambert: True. BJ is an emotional guy and after taking a beating at the hands of Nick Diaz, with his face all busted up, emotion got the better of him and he announced his retirement. He pretty much did the same thing after the Jon Fitch fight. Penn will fight again but it’s obvious that things have to change. It’s obvious that he’s better off at 155, but there’s more to it. He has to switch up his training camp, he has to bring in better sparring partners, and he has to correct his cardio. Unless he does that, it really doesn’t matter if he fights again in 2012 because we’re just going to see the same BJ who is great in the first round and then fades if his opponent remains in his face after that 5 minute period.

Conlan: Agreed on the “true” front. He’s already backed off his original comments about being “done” and plans to keep training. Hopefully the loss to Diaz reminded him that he’s a below average welterweight (1-4 in his last five at 170 pounds) but has unfinished business a division down where he most recently held the belt. He’s only 32 so he’s in his prime, at least from an age perspective, and could easily make a run at 155 highlighted by fights against the likes of Clay Guida, Ben Henderson, Anthony Pettis, Donald Cerrone, or even Gilbert Melendez whenever he joins the UFC roster.

On a scale of 1-10 (bad/good), how would you rate the UFC’s handling of the title-triangle between Georges St. Pierre, Carlos Condit, and Nick Diaz?

Lambert: I guess I’ll go with a 3 because 13 is Taylor Swift‘s lucky number and I just subtracted 10 since UFC has handled this whole situation terribly. They should have never pulled Diaz from the title fight in the first place if they were just going to put him in the co-main event, Dana White should have never promised that Condit would stay as the #1 contender no matter what happened between Diaz and Penn, and St. Pierre should have never allowed himself to be trolled by Diaz. And that’s really just scratching the surface of everything. All that said, even though they’ve handled things very poorly, they’re going to end up making a lot of money in the end when Diaz and GSP eventually fight next year.

Conlan: True story – I spend time every day doing a little work with an after-school program. There is an eight-year old girl who recently went to a Taylor Swift concert and loved it so much she plans to be Swift next year for Halloween. On a side note, if you listen to the Sixth Ounce Podcast you know Jeremy too has dressed up as his favorite wavy-haired, guitar-wielding pop singer. Think on that and when you’re done I’ll be responding to the topic at hand.

I’ll go with an “8” because the UFC’s symphony of errors actually lead to an incredible fight between Diaz/Penn, created more hype for GSP/Diaz than was originally in place, and produced some animosity between GSP/Condit relating to St. Pierre’s decision to ask for Diaz after the “Natural Born Killer” had been promised a shot.

Should fans in the U.K. be offended by how the UFC has treated their market as of late?

Lambert: UFC has been pretty kind to the UK market over the years so they were pretty much due for a down year. But boy did they get screwed over this year. UFC is giving them one show, which is this Saturday for those that don’t know, and not only is it one of the worst cards ever, it happens to be in the middle of a run that features Penn/Diaz, Cain Velasquez/Junior dos Santos, and Mauricio Rua/Dan Henderson. Yet UK fans get Leben vs. Munoz who are two Americans that most of America doesn’t care about and Brad Pickett as their biggest local draw. UK fans should boycott this show.

Conlan: A little harsh on the assessment of Leben/Munoz but other than that Jeremy is spot on. No disrespect to the fighters, all of whom are talented in their own right, but from a marketing/promotional standpoint the card is a dud. It’s a Fight Night at best. The UFC needs to had back across the pond at some point in the first half of 2012 with a major event to make up for this weekend’s mess because if they don’t they’re going to lose some ground in the UK. You can’t neglect fans and expect them to keep paying.

Who looked better in defeat at UFC 137: Jeff Curran or George Roop?

Conlan: Roop, as he was facing perhaps the sport’s #2 featherweight in Hatsu Hioki and arguably won the fight even if his record reflects a Split Decision loss. I never thought Roop would amount to much after watching him on the Ultimate Fighter; that he was just a decent fighter with a good heart and a genuine desire to keep on improving. Turns out he’s done just that, picking up some big wins along the way and now going toe-to-toe with a guy like Hioki.

Lambert: I’ll go with Curran because I sort of expected Hioki to struggle a bit with Roop as he was making his UFC debut after spending his career in Japan, he doesn’t always fight smart, and Roop is a lot better than given credit for. Curran was a victim of the judges favoring takedowns over everything. Curran out-struck Scott Jorgensen and was busier of his back, but because he was on his back the majority of the fight, Jorgensen was given the victory. I thought Curran showed a lot more in that fight then Jorgensen but unfortunately walked away with the “L”.

Should Jay Hieron get an immediate rematch against Ben Askren?

Conlan: No, but I wouldn’t mind seeing him get a one-off against an apt adversary to maintain contendership and face the winner of Askren vs. Ben Saunders/Douglas Lima. I understand Bellator wants to maintain the tournament format when it comes to their contenders but it’s a flawed process forcing champions to compete in non-title fights while deserving challengers have to jump through the same hoops a newcomer does. There’s absolutely no reason Travis Wiuff should have to beat three more people to get a chance at defeating champ Christian M’Pumbu a second time, and, like Wiuff, Hieron should be fast-tracked to another shot at Askren after coming up short in a controversial decision. I’m not saying he shouldn’t have to prove his worth again, because a loss is a loss, but making him walk all the way back to the starting line after getting shafted by the judges.

Then again, he earned his title-shot as the result of poor scoring as well, so perhaps Saturday night was just the MMA gods’ way of course-correcting.

Lambert: No, only because Bellator will have a legit title contender for next season in the winner of Saunders vs. Lima. That said, I don’t think Hieron should have to go through the tournament again. Bellator has a couple of options here. They could do Askren vs. Saunders/Lima at the beginning of season six and then do the winner against Hieron at the end of the season or they could do Askren vs. Saunders/Lima in season six, have Hieron fight newcomer Brian Foster or the loser of Saunders/Lima if the fight ends in a close decision, and then the winners meet for the title in season seven. The latter option eliminates the stupid “non-title super-fight” as well, which is a huge plus.

Hopefully Bellator makes the right decision here and realizes that straying from the tournament format isn’t going to kill the company and could actually benefit them.

Will Chris Leben and Mark Munoz go all five rounds this weekend?

Conlan: That’s rich! Absolutely not. Leben and Munoz will both be looking for a knockout and each has the power to deliver one. I could see the fight going three rounds – maybe – based on Munoz’s wrestling but it’s highly unlikely Leben/Munoz will last an additional ten minutes on top of that.

Lambert: I’m giving it a higher chance than Bren appears to be. While I do believe that Leben will finish Munoz in the first couple of rounds, it wouldn’t shock me to see Munoz use his wrestling in order to try and grind out a decision. I don’t think he’ll be successful, but it’s very possible that he puts Leben against the cage and on his back for 25 minutes. I don’t think Munoz is dumb enough to get into a fire fight with Leben because he’ll lose that battle 10 times out of 10 with his suspect chin against Leben’s chin and power. So if Munoz fights to his strengths and fights a smart fight, this bout could definitely go five rounds.

PHOTO CREDIT – UFC

Keyboard warrrrriors….come out to plaaaay-yay!

Welcome to Grappling with Issues, our site’s regular weekly feature highlighting insight and opinion from myself and resident workhorse Jeremy Lambert whose general contributions and “Scorecard” event-breakdowns can be regularly found on Five Ounces. As always, just because we staffers get the fancy set-up, please don’t hesitate to offer your own take on the topics in the “Comments” section below.

True or False – Bobby Lashley will lose to Tim Hague.

Lambert: FALSE. Even though Lashley isn’t all that great and still doesn’t seem 100% committed to MMA, he’s still a power wrestler and Hague doesn’t have great takedown defense. Plus I’m still very sour on Hague after his most recent UFC performance against Matt Mitrione, where he looked like he would have rather been anywhere else in the world than inside the cage. Hague has some solid submissions, mainly chokes and Lashley doesn’t have much of a neck, and some power in his hands but it’s going to be tough knocking out a guy when you’re on your back.

Conlan: TRUE, and I’m almost willing to go one step further and say it will force Lashley into retirement. He’s fought a single time since losing to Chad Griggs in August 2010, a bout he almost lost to an undersized opponent with no hype, and hasn’t shown any significant improvement since turning to MMA after a fairly successful run in professional wrestling. At the end of the day Lashley is still a slow-moving, power-based wrestler with five minutes of cardio at best. He’s coming off a layoff where he pulled out of a fight for personal reasons and fighting a UFC veteran who has beaten a few well-known fighters like Travis Wiuff and Pat Barry. With eleven finishes in thirteen total victories, Hague can pull the trigger on a finish at any time, something Lashley hasn’t truly shown an ability to do, and he has also gone the distance against some apt adversaries showing he is at least conditioned enough to be competitive for three full rounds.

Nothing in that scenario gives me reason to believe Lashley will win, and to be quite honest I’m a little shocked Jeremy feels confident in his ability to pull out a victory based on wrestling. That ship has sailed, my friend.

Did Kenny Florian make the right decision in terms of returning to compete at 155 pounds?

Lambert: Absolutely. I thought it was kind of stupid for him to drop to 145 in the first place considering that he was having solid success at 155, losing only to Penn and Gray Maynard in recent years. I think it’s safe to say that Florian isn’t going to be a champion in his career, but at least at lightweight there are headlining fights for him. No offense to the competition at 145, but because it’s a relatively new division, at least in the UFC, guys don’t have that “name value” and there’s less money to be made.

Conlan: I completely agree, though I had no problem with testing himself at featherweight since he was able to safely hit the necessary mark (just not comfortably, hence his return to 155). Florian is an intelligent guy who understood his window of opportunity was closing and took a gamble in hopes of calling himself a UFC champion. No shame in that as far as I’m concerned.

Closer to a title-shot with a win at UFC 137 – Tyson Griffin or Hatsu Hioki?

Lambert: Hioki. I know you have to take into account what Griffin did at 155, but even with that, Hioki is still the more accomplished fighter since he’s actually been winning his most recent fights. I also think UFC sees Hioki’s opponent, George Roop, and being higher on the food chain than Griffin’s opponent, Bart Paleszewski, which goes a long way in deciding the next contender. Honestly though, with Chad Mendes all but guaranteed a title shot in early 2012, it wouldn’t shock me if Hioki and Griffin, pending they both win, fight each other for the right to challenge for the title.

Conlan: Also Hioki. Though Griffin is far better known to UFC fans than his Japanese counterpart in this topic, he’ll only be 2-0 at featherweight and had a trio of consecutive losses before dropping down to the division. Three of Hioki’s four losses were Split Decisions while the other was of the Unanimous variety and came eight years ago.

Also, +1 to Lambert for reading my mind as far as Hioki vs. Griffin with the winner taking on either Mendes or Aldo depending on how their bout plays out.

Which UFC 137 bout will earn Fight of the Night honors?

Conlan: The headliner between Penn/Diaz. The UFC has started leaning more towards awarding main card competitors with bonuses rather than preliminary fighters and even if that weren’t the case the welterweights’ war should be fantastic as is. Both men come to scrap every single time they step foot in a ring, not just as professional Mixed Martial Artists but guys who wouldn’t be afraid to throw down on the street without the fame or fortune.

Lambert: There are plenty of candidates who could take home Fight of the Night honors but I’m going with Donald Cerrone vs. Dennis Siver. Both guys always bring it, especially Cerrone, who is never in a boring fight. As long as Siver shows up and this fight makes it out of the first round, I can’t see it not being an exciting fight. Both guys are aggressive and should have a great striking battle on the feet and should it hit the ground, we know that Cerrone will keep busy there as well.

How long will B.J. Penn vs. Nick Diaz last?

Conlan: The distance. Both are historically difficult to finish and, with their skill sets cancelling out to an extent, I see a highly-entertaining, three-round throwdown taking place with both putting the other in bad positions on the ground and getting marked up while standing. If one was a dominant wrestler or had even a clay jaw I might feel different, but I see them as being similar in a lot of ways with one of those characteristics being the ability to take punishment and keep on trucking.

Lambert: I actually think Penn will finish Diaz in the first round. Yes Diaz is tough to finish, but he’s also a pretty flawed fighter and hasn’t fought a guy with the killer instinct of Penn. Because he throws so many punches, stands rather flat, and doesn’t move his head, Diaz is always open for counter punches and Penn is one of the best counter punches in the sport. Penn has very heavy hands and even though Diaz has a great chin/ability to recover, Penn won’t let him off the hook if he drops him like previous opponents. Plus, if he wants to, Penn can put Diaz on his back and work his second to none top game.

Where would you rank Ben Askren in the welterweight division should he defeat Jay Hieron?

Conlan: Somewhere in the 8-10 range. Hieron is no slouch, a veteran with great boxing and solid wrestling, but to be real he shouldn’t even be in the final after being wrongfully gifted a Split Decision win over Rick Hawn in last season’s tournament. Askren has beaten a number of apt adversaries, as would also be the case if he defeats Hieron, but he hasn’t faced any “Top 10” foes yet so it’s hard to know exactly know where he stacks up with the UFC’s hierarchy of 170 pounders.

Lambert: His lack of competition level hurts him but if he’s able to dominate Hieron like he’s dominated pretty much every opponent thus far with his wrestling, I’d definitely put him in the top 10. I hate rankings, which makes me wonder why I asked this question, but I think he matches up well against any welterweight in the world, including GSP. Unfortunately we won’t know how good he truly is until he faces UFC competition, which hopefully happens sometime next year.

PHOTO CREDIT – UFC

Keyboard warrrrriors….come out to plaaaay-yay!

Welcome to Grappling with Issues, our site’s regular weekly feature highlighting insight and opinion from myself and resident workhorse Jeremy Lambert whose general contributions and “Scorecard” event-breakdowns can be regularly found on Five Ounces. As always, just because we staffers get the fancy set-up, please don’t hesitate to offer your own take on the topics in the “Comments” section below.

TRUE/FALSE – Rich Franklin will fight beyond 2012.

Lambert: TRUE. He’ll be 38 entering 2013 and I know he was disappointed in recent comments made by Dana White about him ducking Alexander Gustafsson, but as Franklin himself said, he’s a “company man.” UFC is always going to find a fight for him and because of who he is he’s always going to get solid fights against good opponents. They’ll match him up with other “name” fighters like Tito Ortiz, Rogerio Nogueira, Quinton Jackson, etc… at 205 or he can move down to 185 and fight guys like Cung Le, Chris Leben, Michael Bisping, etc… He’s not going to compete for a title ever again, but as long as they give him guys who the fans know and respect, he’ll fight them.

Conlan: FALSE, at least I hope so. I am a fan of Franklin’s without question but there’s nothing left for him to prove in the UFC. He’s gone 6-4 in the ten fights since his facial reconstruction from Dr. Anderson Silva without any truly impressive wins in the bunch. He’s good for a few more “money” match-ups but other than that it’s time for “Ace” to consider hanging up his pink-and-brown trunks while taking on a role inside the UFC. He’s a great spokesman for MMA and could be a huge success representing the company in a suit rather than inside the Octagon.

Will the UFC cut Roy Nelson if he loses to Mirko Filipovic?

Lambert: First, I honestly can’t envision a scenario where “Cro Cop” beats Nelson next weekend. But, for the sake of the question, I’ll play along. It really depends on what kind of shape Nelson shows up in. If he’s his usual fat-self, which Dana White hates but really I don’t think it’ll make a huge difference, and loses then he’ll probably be released. But if he’s trimmed down a little bit and he “comes to WAR” then he’ll be given at least one more fight. Honestly, if Nelson can’t beat the 2011 version of Mirko, he probably should be released anyway.

Conlan: Jeremy makes a great point regarding Nelson’s form, as “Big Country” has apparently gone to “Not-As-Big” status with a new diet. However, he’ll still be rotund to an extent, so unless he looks sharp against Filipovic in defeat I think he’s probably in line for a pink-slip with a loss. Dana White hasn’t held back expressing his dislike for Nelson’s physique in terms of being a true player on the UFC heavyweight scene so I’m under the impression he will gladly part ways with Nelson if given even a semi-understandable opportunity to do so.

Closer to a title-shot with a win at UFC 137: Donald Cerrone or Tyson Griffin?

Lambert: Griffin, just because there’s a shorter line at 145. After Chad Mendes, the field is wide open and Griffin has the luxury of being one of the more well-known fighters in the division because he’s been in the UFC for so long, he’s fought good competition at 155, and he’s produced five Fight of the Night bouts. Cerrone on the other hand would have to wait for the Clay Guida vs. Ben Henderson winner, then possibly Gilbert Melendez, and who the hell knows who will come out of the blue in the lightweight division since it seems to change on an event by event basis.

Conlan: No argument here. The featherweight field is fairly wide open after Mendes mixes it up with Jose Aldo. Given Griffin’s name value and success at 155, I could see a win over Bart Palaszewski on October 29 giving him enough momentum to earn a title-shot with one more victory. Perhaps a bout against Hatsu Hioki (if he beats George Roop at UFC 137) on the same card as Mendes/Aldo in early 2012 would make the most sense?

What night should Bellator Season 6 air on?

Conlan: Fridays make the most sense by far. The move would eliminate the direct competition for ratings currently taking place on Saturday nights when the UFC typically airs events while also avoiding the occasional Sunday Fight Night or UFC Live card (or the NFL for that matter). The shows could easily be marketed as a way for fans to start their weekends out right; as incredibly entertaining, free, live MMA action that’s over early enough to let folks head out for the rest of their evenings as well or simply keep the party going at home. Not a bad package, eh?

Lambert: Friday’s are usually a ratings disaster night. Networks move shows to Friday because they want to kill them off, not to keep them around. Plus, the new season of The Ultimate Fighter will be airing on Friday’s as well on FX, so they’ll still be against the UFC.

I’m going with Wednesday. People already think of Wednesday as a night for fights thanks to SpikeTV having UFC Unleashed marathons and TUF. With UFC moving off of Spike, Bellator can fill that void on Wednesday. Plus they could run that night on MTV2 and Spike could continue to run UFC programming as a lead in for them. Then, when Bellator eventually ends up on Spike, they can continue to run on Wednesday, people will still associate that night with MMA, and Bellator won’t have to once again move days.

Would Vinny Magalhaes win a fight should he return to the UFC?

Conlan: Absolutely. He’s steadily improved since falling to Ryan Bader and Eliot Marshall inside the Octagon, winning seven of eight with all of the wins involving some form of stoppage. He’s also shown his striking has evolved enough to make him more than a BJJ wiz with no stand-up to speak of. Magalhaes is also relatively young (27), meaning he should keep getting better, and always shows up to fight in great shape. There are plenty of on-the-bubble guys on the UFC roster lacking those characteristics, as well as his background on the mat, so I have no reason to believe Joe Silva couldn’t put Magalhaes in the cage with one of them with the result being Vinny’s first win under the promotion’s banner.

Lambert: Magalhaes has improved a lot since his first UFC run, but his chin is still very suspect. Plus his wins are over some really bad competition. Of course it really depends on who Magalhaes fights. Would he beat a guy like James Te Huna? I don’t think so. But could he beat Ricardo Romero? I’d say yes. Just looking at UFC 205 roster though, I wouldn’t favor him against many fighters on the list. I think UFC would give him a good match up in his return fight, but I’m not sold on him enough to say “yes” to this question.

Who do you see meeting in the Bellator Season 5 bantamweight finals?

Conlan: Eduardo Dantas and Alexis Vila. Beyond being extremely talented, both bantamweights had a far easier road to the semifinal round based on how their wins came about. In comparison to their quick knockout wins, Marcos Galvao and Ed West went three full rounds at Bellator 51 including a fight close enough to result in a Split Decision where Galvao’s success was concerned. With a tournament involving the necessity for fighters to remain active for three consecutive months the difference between a fast finish and a hard-fought victory can ultimately be $100,000 and a shot at the Bellator title.

Lambert: I’m going with West and Vila. I’m not concerned about West having gone to a decision in his opening round bout because the guy always seems to go to a decision. He ended up in the finals of the season 3 tournament after picking up decision victories in the first two rounds, so I’d say he’s used to it. Plus I think his wrestling is going to give Dantas problems. As for Vila and Galvao, I’m picking Vila simply because he KO’d the self-proclaimed baddest man on the planet, thus making him the baddest man on the planet, and I don’t go against the baddest men on the planet until they lose. And I like his power against Galvao’s chin.

PHOTO CREDIT – UFC

Keyboard warrrrriors….come out to plaaaay-yay!

Welcome to Grappling with Issues, our site’s regular weekly feature highlighting insight and opinion from myself and resident workhorse Jeremy Lambert whose general contributions and “Scorecard” event-breakdowns can be regularly found on Five Ounces. As always, just because we staffers get the fancy set-up, please don’t hesitate to offer your own take on the topics in the “Comments” section below.

Who do you have advancing this weekend in Bellator’s ongoing middleweight tournament?

Lambert: Bryan Baker and Brian Rogers. I think Baker has a very favorable match up against Vitor Vianna, who wasn’t all that impressive in his first round victory. Baker on the other hand was very impressive against Jared Hess, who is a tough guy Baker not only beat, but finished in the third round. The Rogers vs. Alexander Shlemenko fight is very intriguing. Rogers is a heavy hitter with explosive power while Shlemenko is more of a technical fighter known for his spinning strikes. I favor Rogers though just because of his power and Shlemenko is a very hittable fighter who leaves himself open with all his spinning attacks.

Conlan: I also have Baker going to the final, as I think he’s more polished than Vianna and has proven himself against better competition. However, I’d put my money on Shlemenko when it comes to filling the other slot. Rogers might have power but Shlemenko can take a punch as evident by the fact he’s only been stopped via strikes a single time in his 48-fight career. Whether or not the same is true in the case of Rogers remains to be seen and I’m pretty sure his chin will be put to the test by the 27-year old Russian who has 3X as many TKOs in his career as “The Predator”. Even if he can’t land a solid punch and put Rogers away I think his overall technique is good enough to pull out a decision and set up a rematch of the Season 2 Middleweight Tournament final (which he won by finishing Baker off with strikes less than three minutes into the opening round).

Fill in the Blank: Chael Sonnen’s professional wrestling schtick is _____.

Lambert: Overrated. He’s a great talker and has great delivery, but it’s not like he’s the greatest promo in the history of MMA like so many want to claim. Brock Lesnar‘s promo at UFC 100 was much better than most of the things Sonnen has said, mainly because what Lesnar said was real. We all know what Sonnen is doing is a schtick and it’s refreshing in the world of MMA when most fighters come off generic and boring, but the fact that what he’s doing isn’t exactly ground breaking and that what he says in his promos are a bunch of lies doesn’t make him the greatest promo-artist of all time.

Conlan: A sign of things to come. It’s only a matter of time before other fighters start catching on to the benefit of playing a character in front of cameras rather than responding to questions with the same cookie-cutter answers the public has heard a hundred times. Sonnen is not the first Mixed Martial Artist to market himself through soundbytes in hopes of becoming a bigger draw than he would by resting on the laurels of a mediocre record in the ring. However, he’s done it better than most as of late, and to be able to garner so much attention through ridiculous statements without any foundation in reality will absolutely inspire more fighters to behave in the same silly way.

And sorry Lambert, but Lesnar would be the first to tell you he was playing up a caricature of his true personality after his rematch with Mir. In fact, from the man himself – “People spend money and want to be entertained. If you don’t feel from UFC 100 that you got your money’s worth, you’re probably not gonna tune into something (with me). It’s good entertainment.”

What will Kenny Florian’s next move be?

Lambert: Back to lightweight. I don’t really know why he left in the first place, aside from the fact that he failed on two title shots, but he was a very good lightweight fighter. He beat top fighters and he only lost to top fighters. I think the weight cut is a little too draining for Florian and Frankie Edgar has proven that you can get by being a small lightweight as long as you have the tools to do so. Florian is a very good fighter, he has his flaws, but he’s a hard worker and has talent.

Conlan: Going back up a division works for me. He’s a little old to be cutting significant weight as is and, like Jeremy said, he had solid success before dropping down to 145 pounds. Florian’s only losses at lightweight were to B.J. Penn and Gray Maynard, yet he had wins over a number of reputable opponents like Roger Huerta, Joe Lauzon, and current contender Clay Guida. He needs to accept he’s not going to win a UFC title and take a few more big fights to cement his legacy in the UFC – three more and he’ll have 20 total bouts inside the Octagon – before trading in his gloves for an analyst’s microphone.

Does Ryan Jimmo deserve at least one fight in the UFC?

Conlan: Absolutely. Though watching his fight last weekend against Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou may have felt at times like doing laps in a pool filled with chloroform, and he appeared to have earned little more than a “hometown” decision, Jimmo has still won sixteen straight fights including a handful over guys with UFC credentials. He’s a significant draw in Canada and would be perfectly suited for a show like UFC 140. In the best case scenario his name sells a few extra tickets, he wins, and the UFC has a new competitor at light heavyweight with an amazing run behind him for marketing purposes; in the worst his name sells a few extra tickets, he loses, and the MFC’s biggest star goes back to the promotion with his streak broken. Either way the UFC benefits in the short and long term.

And let’s not act like his decisions matter THAT much. He’s stopped as many adversaries as outpointed, a stat a number of UFC fighters can’t lay claim to.

Lambert: Give him the Antonio McKee treatment. McKee has an extremely long winning streak filled with lackluster performances, got one chance in the UFC, lost, and was cut. Jimmo is a lot like McKee. He’s beating less than stellar competition, not putting on exciting performances, but he’s winning. As Bren said, you could give him a fight in Canada against a guy like Luiz Cane, see what he’s really made of, and go from there. If he wins, then great. If he loses, then it’ll just prove that he’s not ready for the UFC and needs to spend more time in MFC or elsewhere.

That said, I’m not sure I’d bring him in after his performance against Sokoudjou. At least McKee was coming off a finishing performance against a solid Luciano Azevedo. Jimmo’s performance against a mediocre Sokoudjou did not help his UFC chances and could have actually hurt him.

Will Rashad Evans fight for the light heavyweight title in 2012?

Conlan: I’m pretty sure Jeremy will go opposite from me here no matter what I say since a solid case can be made for both sides. Regardless, I’m going with “yes”.

Health withstanding, Evans will fight three times in 2012. With Mauricio Rua, Dan Henderson, and Lyoto Machida already tied up the only options out there right now are Phil Davis and a rematch with Quinton Jackson. I’m fairly certain he’ll beat either of them as long as he’s in the same shape he was at UFC 133. That victory alone should cement him a title-shot and buy him a little more time on the sidelines if necessary (which he can’t afford right now after sitting on the sidelines earlier this year while waiting for a crack at the championship).

Even if he somehow loses, as long as he’s competitive, Evans could easily be back in the picture for an opportunity at winning gold by year’s end with success in a follow-up fight. It worked for Machida so why wouldn’t the same apply to a guy who was closer to contendership than “The Dragon” was when handed the UFC 140 bout with Jon Jones?

Lambert: I’m going to go the other way, just for fun.

I’m pretty convinced that the MMA Gods, like most MMA fans, don’t like Evans. His fight against Jackson got pushed back, he won that fight but didn’t get a title shot because he chose to sit out. While sitting out, he got injured and his title shot went to Jones. He was supposed to fight Jones, but Jones “faked an injury” and fought Jackson while Evans beat Ortiz. In beating Ortiz, Evans got injured and his title shot was handed to Machida. This guy was supposed to fight for the title in late 2010, possibly earlier if the Jackson fight happened in December 2009 like originally planned, and still hasn’t received his title shot.

I just think he’s cursed. Remember when Karo Parisyan had the chance to fight for the title against Matt Hughes, got injured, and never sniffed a title shot after that? I feel like the same thing could happen to Evans. The 205 division is very competitive at the top and it only takes one bad night for Evans to be put on the back burner.

Was Frankie Edgar’s UFC 136 performance the best championship performance of the year?

Conlan: I suppose it depends on one’s definition of “performance”. If the question is a matter of the bout’s entertainment value then I would say absolutely. He finished his rivalry with Maynard off in style after nearly seeing it slip away early. If it’s relating to a champion’s actual outing then I’d say it’s not even close since, after all, Edgar did get rocked in the first round and was close to being finished. When compared to Jones’ dominance against Silva or “Rampage”, or Anderson Silva’s mastery against Yushin Okami and Vitor Belfort, “The Answer” getting pummeled doesn’t measure up on that front.

Best or not, one thing I will say is that Edgar did a helluva job in Houston and I won’t ever doubt his ability to win again…until he fights Gilbert Melendez, that is.

Lambert: I know this is an overreaction on my part and concede that both of Silva’s performances were better, because he made it look so easy against really good fighters, but I’m siding with Edgar here.

When I think of a champion, I think of a guy who never quits and who has a ton of heart. That’s Edgar. He not only got blasted in the first round, but he survived, made adjustments between rounds, and came back to finish Maynard to leave it out of the hands of the judges. Making it look as easy as Jones, Silva, and Georges St. Pierre made it look in their title fights this year is a very tough task, but a true champion shows his colors when his back is against the wall. Edgar’s back was not only against the wall, he was getting punched in the face as well. Instead of dropping down and covering up though, Edgar pushed back, and showed why he’s a champion.

PHOTO CREDIT – UFC

Keyboard warrrrriors….come out to plaaaay-yay!

Welcome to Grappling with Issues, our site’s regular weekly feature highlighting insight and opinion from myself and resident workhorse Jeremy Lambert whose general contributions and “Scorecard” event-breakdowns can be regularly found on Five Ounces. As always, just because we staffers get the fancy set-up, please don’t hesitate to offer your own take on the topics in the “Comments” section below.

Should Pat Barry be released after dropping to 3-4 inside the Octagon with all the losses involving some form of stoppage?

Lambert: He won’t be, but he probably should be. Barry has a ton of charisma and is involved in exciting fights while they last, but he’s just not ready for the UFC level of competition. I think he could really benefit from taking fights on a smaller stage where he can improve on his other skills, mainly his takedown defense and grappling. Here’s my problem with Barry though: he has too much Brandon Vera in him. He admires his own work too much and he doesn’t seem to feel bad after losses. I’m not saying he should sulk about losing, but don’t go on Twitter and say “THAT WAS A COOL POWERBOMB!” moments after you lost. Having an upbeat attitude is usually a good thing, but in the fight game, I want guys who are pissed off when they lose, because those are the guys who I know will work harder for their next bout.

Conlan: Like Jeremy said, even if Barry isn’t cut he definitely deserves to be. The UFC needs to set a standard when it comes to the fighters they keep on board. Retaining a guy who is 3-4 in the organization with all four losses involving some sort of finish is not near the level of excellence employment in the UFC should require regardless of how many silly pictures he takes in his underwear or how charming he might be at press conferences. It’s time for Dana White to take a hint from his favorite vendor of frozen treats and pink-slip Barry.

Does Brian Stann deserve a title-shot if he beats Chael Sonnen this weekend?

Lambert: I think the winner of this fight will be given a title shot, so I have to say yes. We all know that UFC wants to do Sonnen vs. Anderson Silva 2, as they were going to do the immediate rematch before Sonnen spent more time in the court room than the gym, so one victory should get him another bout with Silva. That being said, if Stann can beat Sonnen, why not give him a title shot too? He already has victories over Chris Leben and Jorge Santiago, throw in a victory over Sonnen, and combine that with his story (did you know that he’s a former Marine?) and that’s a recipe for a title contender.

Conlan: Yes, at least in the context of having accomplished at least as much (if not more) than the previous challengers to Silva’s strap. Yushin Okami – wins over Nate Marquardt, Mark Munoz, and Lucio Linhares. Vitor Belfort – catchweight success over Rich Franklin and recent victories over Matt Lindland and Terry Martin. Demian Maia – outpointing Dan Miller after being knocked out by Marquardt a fight earlier. Keep going down the list and, with the exception of Sonnen, “The Spider” hasn’t faced a contender with as much momentum as Stann would have entering the bout with consecutive wins over Leben, Santiago, and the guy who was less than two minutes away from becoming middleweight champion before slipping up and getting caught in a submission.

Of the two title-fights at UFC 136, how many will feature a finishing performance – both, one of them, or neither?

Lambert: I expect to see a finish in Jose Aldo vs. Kenny Florian. I’ve been told that FLORIAN FINISHES FIGHTS and Aldo usually finishes fights too, unless he’s fighting in his opponent’s hometown and doesn’t want to piss off the crowd too much by murdering the guy that everyone came to see. I think Aldo will finish Florian because I feel like Florian is afraid/doesn’t react well when he’s hit, and Aldo is going to hit him a lot. When Florian feels Aldo’s power he’s going to start making mistakes and Aldo is going to capitalize on those mistakes before putting him away.

I see Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard going to the scorecards just because neither guy have a reputation as a finisher and both guys are extremely tough to finish. Maynard had Edgar dead to rights in their last bout, and still couldn’t put him away and the only time Maynard has been finished (not counting TUF) was when he finished himself.

Conlan: Just to be different I’ll go with neither. Edgar/Maynard is likely to go the distance given both fighters’ general tenacity and skill-sets, plus there’s past history to consider as well (eight rounds, zero finishes).

As far as the featherweights, though I think Aldo will retain his title I’m not sure he’ll do more than beat Florian up. Kenny isn’t stopped easily with the submission to B.J. Penn at UFC 101 the only example of such being the case in more than five years (and only one prior to Diego Sanchez as a middleweight on the Ultimate Fighter 1 Finale). He’s well-rounded enough to take on Aldo in any area, and while he may not have the dynamic Brazilian’s power or precision, he’s certainly battle-tested enough to last 25 minutes with him.

Will Dominick Cruz finish an opponent in 2012?

Conlan: No. As talented as Cruz may be he doesn’t seem to have what it takes to put equally apt adversaries away. He’s only finished a single opponent under the Zuffa banner, Brian Bowles, and the stoppage was the result of a broken hand rather than something brought on by a TKO/submission. “The Dominator” won’t fight again until the first quarter of 2012 since he’s got a mangled mitt of his own that needs healing plus Bowles/Urijah Faber still have to square off in November to determine who gets next crack at Cruz’s championship. With that being the case, Cruz will probably only fight twice next year (three times max), and with the level of competition he’s likely to face I don’t see him doing enough – or even possessing the ability – to end his first fight since March 2008.

Lambert: I want to say yes, but based on his past performances, I don’t think it’ll happen. He’ll likely face the winner of Faber vs. Bowles, and since I believe that “The California Kid” will be victorious in that fight, I don’t see Cruz finishing him this time around either. After that, it’s up in the air as to who he faces but if you just look at Cruz’ style, it’s not a style that finishes fights. He doesn’t seem to have natural punching power, and even though he is a good grappler, it’s not like he’s a grappling ace with an overwhelming submission game.

Besides the two title fights, which UFC 136 fight are you most excited for?

Conlan: Much oblige to Jeremy for lofting a slow-moving pitch right over the center of home plate on this topic. Without hesitation I’ll go with Jeremy Stephens vs. Anthony Pettis. Both lightweights love to strike, though each can grapple as well if necessary, and have a tendency to take opponents out before the judges’ scorecards come into play. Pettis has finished eleven of the thirteen fighters he’s beaten while Stephens is 17/20 in that department. It’s going to be fast, furious, and absolutely fantastic. Unless there is something behind the scenes preventing the switch, the fact this bout is on the Spike TV broadcast and Nam Phan vs. Leonard Garcia is on the PPV portion of UFC 136 still baffles me.

Lambert: There are a lot of great fights on the UFC 136 card that I’m looking forward to. Since Bren already touched on Stephens/Pettis, I’ll show some love to Melvin Guillard vs. Joe Lauzon. “The Young Assassin” has really come into his own under Greg Jackson and he’s shown his full potential in recent outings with KO victories over Evan Dunham and Shane Roller. Lauzon might fade after the first five minutes, but he’s still a great fighter for those five minutes and has the skills to catch Guillard with a strike or jump on a submission if Guillard decides to get lazy. I don’t see this fight getting out of the first round and I expect a tremendous finish either way.

Should Gilbert Melendez get an immediate UFC lightweight title shot?

Conlan: Even with a win over Jorge Masvidal in December my answer would still be “no”. It’s not that “El Nino” doesn’t deserve a shot at the UFC belt, because he’s taken a number of highly-respected peers out convincingly and would have an above-average chance at walking away with the championship were he to fight for it. However, examining the current circumstances, the UFC has a few contenders in line at the top right now that should get a title-shot before Melendez based on what they’ve accomplished inside the Octagon. Once Melvin Guillard and Clay Guida have fought each other, or fail to find success in their next outings, then and only then should Melendez get his opportunity at the strap.

Plus, there’s already precedence in regards to Jake Shields, Dan Henderson, and Alistair Overeem coming over from Strikeforce. Nick Diaz was the exception but mainly because the UFC didn’t have another legitimate welterweight contender lined up for Georges St. Pierre, hence why it will take a similar situation at 155-pounds to earn Melendez an immediate shot at the title.

Lambert: No, only because the winner of Guida vs. Henderson definitely deserves a title shot based on their track record. While Melendez is one of the best lightweights in the world, I don’t think he should jump the winner of that fight and get a title shot.

That said, if Melendez fights and beats Masvidal and doesn’t enter the UFC until after the current champion fights the Henderson/Guida winner, then I’d be fine with Melendez getting a title shot and jumping a guy like Guillard or Dennis Siver, pending they win their next fights. My scenario however is that Melendez jumps to the UFC without fighting Masvidal, faces Guillard (if he beats Lauzon), and then the winner of that fight gets a title shot. UFC has a great problem at lightweight in that they have a lot of talented fighters who need to fight each other in order to get a title

PHOTO CREDIT – UFC

Keyboard warrrrriors….come out to plaaaay-yay!

Welcome to Grappling with Issues, our site’s regular weekly feature highlighting insight and opinion from myself and resident workhorse Jeremy Lambert whose “Walk Out” and “After Party” event-breakdowns can be regularly found on Five Ounces. As always, just because we staffers get the fancy set-up, please don’t hesitate to offer your own take on the topics in the “Comments” section below.

True/False – Jon Jones will go undefeated in 2012.

Lambert: True. It kind of depends on how many times he fights in 2012. If he fights twice then he’ll fight Rashad Evans, then the winner of Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and Dan Henderson, and I think he can beat all three guys. If he takes that third fight though at the end of the year and it’s against Lyoto Machida, that’s the one guy who can give Jones problems that he hasn’t run into in his UFC career. It’s very possible that he fights three times in 2012 given how the schedule looks like it will play out, although no one can foresee injuries. But it’s not a guarantee that the third fight will be against Machida and, even though Machida is a tough fight for him, I’d still favor Jones in that fight.

Conlan: Also true, though I see Evans being more of a challenge for Jones than Machida. Evans being a past teammate of Jones’ can’t be dismissed because unique insight he has into the champ’s physical abilities/limitations and mental make-up. He’ll have an idea of what things Jones is good at, where he struggles, and how to best avoid/exploit those areas. Sure, “Bones” is at an age where he’s constantly improving and will be a better fighter than the one Evans trained with in New Mexico, but certain tendencies will undoubtedly remain because, after all, it’s only been about six months since their falling out.

Is it time for Matt Hughes to retire or should he keep fighting?

Lambert: I say retire, but after talking with Samer Kadi on the podcast, I can get behind the idea of Hughes going the Chuck Liddell route. After losing to Rua, Liddell was “shelved” for over a year before returning for a scheduled fight against Tito Ortiz, which was the most winnable fight in the world for Liddell. Of course he ended up taking a much tougher fight against Rich Franklin, lost, and retired, but I could see UFC and Hughes doing something similar. Hughes takes a year off to farm, spend time with his family, and do whatever else he does in his free time and then return to fight Dennis Hallman.

Conlan: I’m behind the notion of him carrying on his career, plus I never feel comfortable demanding a fighter retires because, frankly, their decision has no impact on my personal life. I’d rather let Hughes and his family figure it out in comparison to acting as though I know what’s best for them.

Even if I was the kind of media-member who rants against Ken Shamrock and Jens Pulver, it isn’t as though Hughes has lost to chumps or hasn’t been competitive as of late. He was caught early by B.J. Penn and looked good against Josh Koscheck before the final sequence of strikes. He needs to be paired against guys who aren’t “Top 10” but are well-known to fight-fans. Hallman is a solid option because of his upset wins over Hughes a decade ago. Historical significance always creates a level of interest (see: Hughes’ past fights with Renzo Gracie and Royce Gracie) and Hallman would be a winnable fight at least allowing the Illinois native to potentially exit the UFC with some dignity. Another thought could be Dan Hardy for an event in England since it wouldn’t be a bad pairing for Hughes stylistically and would definitely sell some tickets in the UK.

Will Dominick Cruz finish Demetrious Johnson?

Lambert: I think he will but it wouldn’t shock me if he doesn’t. I don’t want to write-off Johnson, because this MMA and Johnson is a top level fighter, but this is a tough match up for him. He’s giving up a lot of size and Cruz can come close to matching the speed of Johnson. Plus there’s a matter of skill and Johnson’s wrestling game will likely be shut down against Cruz, who is a good offensive and defensive wrestler. Then on the feet, Cruz is leagues above Johnson with his movement and diversity. I think Cruz will be able to use his size to slow down Johnson and finish him on the ground. Again, it won’t shock me if Cruz dances around and picks apart Johnson for 25 minutes, but I feel like this is a fight that he should finish.

Conlan: I’ll go the opposite route and say “no”. Johnson reminds me some of Joseph Benavidez and should stay competitive throughout. Yes, I think he’ll ultimately lose the decision because Cruz is THAT good, but I also believe “Mighty Mouse” has the skill to stay in the fight and even put Cruz in a few bad positions along the way. If we’re looking purely at numbers, “The Dominator” hasn’t stopped an opponent in 3 1/2 years while Johnson has only lost a single decision in ten total fights despite facing tough opponents who are typically bigger than him.

Play Joe Silva and book one fight for the UFC in Japan event.

Conlan: Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Diego Sanchez. Akiyama is poised to make his welterweight debut at the February 26 show and Sanchez, who should be healed up from his broken hand, would be a fantastic fight for the Japanese veteran. Neither man knows how to turn in a boring performance when it comes to their chosen profession and it would put a local hero up against an original Ultimate Fighter winner.

Lambert: Despite his recent performances, Takanori Gomi has to be on this card. Maybe fighting in Japan again will actually motivate him to show up, but that’s no guarantee. So UFC needs to guarantee that a Japanese fighter wins in Japan, and unless they plan paying tribute to early PRIDE and decide to fix the fight, they only way to guarantee a Japanese victory is to match him up against a fellow country man. That man should be Shinya Aoki. There’s no way Aoki vs. Gomi will suck, because it’s either going to end in a great KO for Gomi or a great submission for Aoki. Plus it’d be a match up for the two best lightweights in Japanese history.

Following his KO loss, what should Joe Warren do next?

Conlan: Start playing to his strengths instead of weaknesses. It’s clear Warren’s jaw is not made of adamantium, and while it may not be Ming Dynasty Porcelain either, he needs to stop opting to strike so much when he has world-class wrestling at his disposal. I want to see Warren work for takedowns, then smash people from on top. I also think sticking with bantamweight would be a smart move, even looking at a permanent move to flyweight when the UFC eventually adds the division. Size kills in MMA most of the time and, at 5’5”, he needs to utilize that advantage if possible.

Lambert: Focus on one thing. Rarely do MMA fighters succeed when they’re juggling different things in this life. Whether it’s a second job, a personal problem, or a separate goal, if your head isn’t 100% into training and into the fight, it’s a recipe for disaster. Warren stretched himself too thin heading into this fight. He wanted to defend his 145 lb title, win the 135 lb tournament, and compete in the Olympics. I don’t care how great you are, that’s a tough task to accomplish all of them around the same time. Warren is a talented fighter, but unless he keeps his mind on one goal, he may not accomplish any of them.

Do you expect Bellator to air on Spike TV in 2012?

Conlan: No, as I’m under the impression there is a contractual issue preventing Spike from broadcasting live MMA as long as they own the rights to UFC’s video library (which they do until 2013). Dana White isn’t the type of person to back down when challenged and has no problem trying to out-dick a dickish move from an adversary. I also don’t see the UFC wanting to pay for videos that will not only cost them money but give Bellator better exposure. Let Spike TV sit on their fights for a year or milk whatever ratings they can, then try to get back into the “live MMA” game with the UFC regularly broadcasting live events (including TUF) through FOX/FX.

Lambert: While the UFC contract may prevent Spike from airing any other MMA, it’s always possible that UFC buys back the tape library, thus more or less voiding the contract. And that’s exactly what Spike is trying to do, by countering the first UFC on FOX event with a block of UFC Unleashed featuring Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos bouts. This move has already upset White and things could get uglier if the two sides can’t hash it all out.

While a UFC Unleashed marathon isn’t going to trump the UFC on FOX rating, maybe that’s part of Spike’s plans. They could actually trumpet the fact that the UFC ratings are down, that they’re not as big as they once were, and that they don’t need them anymore. It’d be a pretty dirty move, but if Spike is serious about wanting out of this contract so they can pick up Bellator, they may stoop to such tactics.

All that said, I don’t expect Dana to budge. I think he’ll make Spike finish out the contract, but things could get pretty dirty between the two sides in 2012.

PHOTO CREDIT – UFC/BELLATOR

Keyboard warrrrriors….come out to plaaaay-yay!

Welcome to Grappling with Issues, our site’s regular weekly feature highlighting insight and opinion from myself and resident workhorse Jeremy Lambert whose “Walk Out” and “After Party” event-breakdowns can be regularly found on Five Ounces. As always, just because we staffers get the fancy set-up, please don’t hesitate to offer your own take on the topics in the “Comments” section below.

With Dan Henderson set to fight “Shogun” Rua at UFC 139, how do you see the UFC handling the title-picture considering Rashad Evans’ claim to a crack at the belt?

Lambert: There’s too much money to be made in Evans vs. the winner of Jackson vs. Jones, so there’s no way UFC scraps that fight. I think the logical scenario is that the winner of “Shogun” vs. “Hendo” takes on the winner of the rumored Lyoto Machida vs. Phil Davis fight, with the winner getting a title shot. Now if Rua and Machida win, it would be a third fight between the two and maybe many people wouldn’t be too interested in that fight, but it would still be the fight to make.If either Machida or Rua loses though, we’d great a fresh match up and a legitimate top contender to the light heavyweight title. UFC is in a pretty good position with the 205 division right now as there are plenty of good match ups at the top of the card.

Conlan: I agree 100% with Lambert. Regardless of who wins this weekend the UFC has a guaranteed money-maker match with Evans waiting in the wings. In fact I wouldn’t even be surprised to see them used as TUF coaches on FX to capitalize on the rivalry and build the bout, especially in the case of Jones/Evans’ unfinished business. Though I think Henderson deserves a title-shot sooner than later he won the belt by beating guys that wouldn’t crack the “Top 5″ contenders in the UFC so even if he beats “Shogun” another fight against Machida, Davis, or even Tito Ortiz if he beats Antonio Rogerio Nogueira makes sense.

Do you think Jake Shields’ showing at UFN 25 was affected by the death of his father?

Lambert: I’m sure it was affected, but it’s not an excuse. Shields took the fight, that’s all that matters. If he wasn’t 100% confident in his abilities, then he wouldn’t have taken the bout. Even if he entered the Octagon with a clear mind, there’s no way his mind was clear the day of his fathers passing or the couple of days after it. I’m sure he missed a couple of training sessions or had some bad training sessions, and that could have been the difference in this fight. But he stepped him there, so he was ready to fight, and if he thought that he was ready, then I don’t question his decision to fight.

Conlan: I don’t think there’s any question his performance was affected by his father’s death. Granted, that doesn’t mean the outcome would have been different, but before being a fighter Shields is a human being first. He had an extremely tight bond with his Dad and to think the absence of his presence wasn’t on Shields’ mind, even in the moments leading up to showtime, is expecting too much. However, Ellenberger still deserves full credit because, like Lambert said, Shields felt confident enough in his abilities to stick with his commitment to the UFC and fight.

Remove Jones/Jackson, Hughes/Koscheck, and Diaz/Gomi from UFC 135 and tell fans why they should be excited about the event…

Lambert: I’m looking forward to Cole Escovedo vs. Takeya Mizugaki. Both guys are in need of a victory and both guys usually come to fight. I know Mizugaki is coming off a pretty lackluster fighter against Brian Bowles, but prior that he was in a bunch of exciting fights. And Escovedo brings it as well. Both guys are active in all positions and this bout has the potential to take “Fight of the Night” honors on Saturday.

Conlan: Other than the presence of Rob “It’s Already Been” Broughton, my favorite made-up nickname of all time, there are plenty of other things to be interested in on the card including a guaranteed slugfest between Mark Hunt and Ben Rothwell. However, the bout I’ll focus on for this topic is Tony Ferguson vs. Aaron Riley. Ferguson was extremely impressive on TUF 13 including in his finale win against Ramsey Nijem, while Riley is a seasoned veteran with a great camp (Greg Jackson‘s crew) and the grappling to give “El Cuycuy” a real run for his money. It’s also on the Spike prelims meaning I can watch it in HD, another bonus to be sure.

How many rounds do you see Jon Jones vs. Quinton Jackson going?

Conlan: If Jackson hadn’t held his camp in Denver I would feel differently about this but I think their headlining bout at UFC 135 is going the distance. Jones’ speed and precision should allow him to pick Jackson apart when standing, plus his takedowns and top-control are of enough quality to steal ugly rounds or test the former champ’s cardio by making him constantly work. However, though I clearly think Jones will win, “Rampage” hasn’t been finished in five years and I don’t see Jones having enough power to snap that streak.

Lambert: I think the fight will go three rounds, with Jones stopped Jackson during the middle frame. Jones might not have that one punch power, but he definitely has that overwhelming power, which is just as useful. Jones put a beating on “Shogun” Rua, who is known for his ability to take damage, and even we was stopped in the 3rd because of the way Jones just kept attacking and hitting him with everything in the book. Jackson has been through a lot of wars in his career, and while I’m sure he’s in great shape, I don’t think he’s ready for the kind of attacks that Jones will throw at him.

True or False: This Saturday will be the last time we see Matt Hughes in the Octagon.

Conlan: False. While I can see Josh Koscheck pulling out a win, even of the knockout variety, I think Hughes’ ego is far too big to let him walk away from MMA on a losing note, especially to a late replacement, or without at least announcing his intent to retire beforehand to maximize the attention it would merit. And, if Hughes does pull out the win, since the “Country Boy” will have won four of his last five fights including against a recent title-contender like Koscheck, his ego won’t let him give up the sport for good with a crack at the championship so close at hand.

When Hughes hangs up his gloves he’ll let the world know first rather than be wishy-washy about it. However, as it stands right now, he says he still loves the competition (and the paychecks probably don’t hurt either), so why would he want to call it a career?

Lambert: True. Hughes has nothing left to prove, I think he’d be fine just living on his farm and helping out younger fighters, and most importantly, his wife wants him to retire. If he goes out there and gets KO’d for the second straight time, I believe he’ll call it a career. Hughes has stated many times that he doesn’t want to be part of someone’s highlight reel, but that’s exactly what he risks every time he takes a fight with a younger fighter who is faster and stronger than he is.

What is the most intriguing fight not on the UFC card this weekend?

Conlan: Tatsuya Kawajiri vs. Joachim Hansen at DREAM 17. Hansen and Kawajiri have been two of my favorite staples on the Japanese scene for a long time, a sentiment I suspect a lot of other people would agree with. Both men always come to fight and, win or lose, are incredibly respectful of their opponents and the sport in general. I also like that it re-matches them after their 2006 fight never really got started when “Hellboy” was disqualified for a kick to Kawajiri’s nether-regions eight seconds into the opening round. It’s the kind of bout that, if the general public knew their MMA history, would be at home on the main card of any UFC event (or certainly Strikeforce) based on the quality of competitors involved, yet fans are fortunate enough to have an opportunity to see them throw down for free this weekend.

Lambert: Obviously Bren read my column on Tuesday and stole my answer, so I’ll throw out another fight from the same card and that’s Shinya Aoki vs. Rob McCullough.

Granted this fight looks like an easy victory for Aoki, but is that really a bad thing? Even if his easy victories, Aoki has a habit of pulling off some crazy submission that gets the fans talking. I like watching greatness when I’m watching sports and when I watch Aoki, I know I’m watching the best submission grappler in the entire sport. I don’t want to sell McCulough short either, because he’s a very good technical striker with power, and if he connects on Aoki’s suspect chin, the Baka Survivor might not survive.

PHOTO CREDIT – UFC