UFC 95 set to air at 9 p.m. ET this Saturday, the event will be free to those who are able to afford basic cable. Instead of another PPV that costs $44.95, the fan is instead being presented a bonus UFC Fight Night card.

However, the lineup on tap for Saturday is vastly superior to recent UFN offerings, as the main event matchup between season one and season two alums of The Ultimate Fighter Diego Sanchez and Joe Stevenson is a strong matchup on paper.

The card will also feature intriguing middleweight matchups between Nathan Marquardt vs. Wilson Gouveia and Demian Maia vs. Chael Sonnen. Below is FiveOuncesOfPain.com full preview of the event (including the non-televised undercard) along with predictions (remember to check back this Saturday for live play-by-play starting at 12 noon ET)…

Lightweight (155 lbs.):

Diego Sanchez (19-2) vs. Joe Stevenson (29-9)

A lot of people are counting Stevenson out in this one based on the fact that he’s coming off bad losses to B.J. Penn and Kenny Florian where he failed to impress. Sanchez fits the mold of the kind of eltie level fighter that Stevenson has yet to beat in the UFC. However, Saturday will mark Sanchez’s first cut to 155.

As recent as December Sanchez revealed that he was over 190 pounds and he was candid during a conference call last week in revealing that the cut has been difficult for him. He was at 162-163 pounds two weeks out so I believe he will make 156.

However, I am concerned about Sanchez’s cardio in the second and third rounds. The longer the fight goes, the more it benefits Stevenson. The fact that Stevenson has abandoned the temptations of Las Vegas also is a sign that he could be re-focused on his career.

I expect an upset in this one with Stevenson winning via unanimous decision against a gassed Sanchez.

Welterweight (170 lbs.):

Josh Koscheck (12-3) vs. Paulo Thiago (10-0)

A perfect 10-0 record is something to respect no matter how it was accumulated. Some of Thiago’s early fights in Brazil didn’t present much of a challenge, but his more recent fights while competing for the Jungle Fight promotion were a solid test. However, the submission specialist is going to be taking a major step up in competition at UFC 95 against Josh Koscheck.

Koscheck probably doesn’t want to spend too much time on the ground with Thiago and giving his world class wrestling a night off wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. After all, Koscheck’s striking continues to make major strides and he recorded one of the most vicious knockouts of 2008 when he dropped Yoshiyuki Yoshida in the first round during the “UFC Fight for the Troops” event this past December.

I expect Koscheck’s athleticism to prove to be too much for Thiago and for the former TUF 1 veteran to record a second round TKO victory.

Middleweight (185 lbs.):

Nathan Marquardt (27-8-2) vs. Wilson Gouveia (12-5)

I know that the average fan isn’t overly excited about Saturday’s show but how do you not get excited for this fight? Marquardt vs. Gouveia is a strong matchup between two large middleweights who have the ability to compete whereever a fight may go.

Gouveia trains out of American Top Team and could eventually become the middleweight division’s version of Thiago Alves. He’s a good athlete with excellent size for the weight class and can fight on the feet or on the floor.

Marquardt also comes from an excellent camp, as he is a part of Greg Jackson’s extended family of fighters. Since a disappointing performance agaisnt Anderson Silva at UFC 73, Marquardt has impressed and continues to improve.

This is a fight that will have tremendous implications on the middleweight food chain in the UFC with the winner possibly moving onto the fast track for a middleweight title shot.

Picking a winner in this fight isn’t easy but I will give the nod to Marquardt via split decision. There are still concerns about Gouveia’s ability to properly cut to 185 and Marquardt’s high-atltitude training could give him an advantage when it comes to stamina.

Middleweight (185 lbs.):

Chael Sonnen (21-9-1) vs. Demian Maia (9-0)

Sonnen vs. Maia is another reason to get excited about UFC 95. Aside from Koscheck vs. Thiago, there isn’t a match scheduled to air on Spike TV that doesn’t have me intrigued.

Sonnen is perhaps one of the most underrated fighters in all of MMA. A seven-year veteran, he has been training with Team Quest before it was known as Team Quest. A real estate agent by trade,

Sonnen has put himself in a position where he can focus solely on fighting if he wants to by earning a strong contract with the UFC following three credible performances in the WEC, two of which came against one-time consensus top ten ranked middleweight Paulo Filho.

Having won seven of his last eight, Sonnen comes into this fight with a lot of momentum. However, he doesn’t have nearly as much heat behind him as Maia, perhaps one of the brightest prospects in all of MMA.

Undefeated at 9-0, four of his wins have come inside the Octagon. All of the jiu-jitsu black belt’s wins in the UFC have come via submission. As good as Sonnen is, he likely won’t be able to hang very long on the ground with Maia, a former jiu-jitsu world champion.

If Sonnen can use his solid wrestling to keep the fight standing, we could see Maia’s lack of standup exposed and witness his first career loss. However, Maia has always found a way to get the fight where he wants it and I expect we’ll see him win via third round submission.

Welterweight (170 lbs.):

Dan Hardy (20-6) vs. Rory Markham (16-4)

Fireworks in the cage will open up the Spike TV telecast. Markham has questioned Hardy’s punching power and Hardy feels like his hands are being overlooked.

One might think that Markham is trying to bait Hardy into standing with him, but if he’s looking to bang, he doesn’t need to resort to giving Hardy bulletin board material. Hardy is a strong striker in his own right and his standup is much more versatile than Markham’s.

Markham has spent a great deal of time over the years working on his wrestling while a part of Miletich Fighting Systems in Davenport, Iowa, but he’s not world class in that department. Yet again, the ground is another area in which Hardy possesses more versatility.

Hardy via unanimous decision is the pick here based on the fact that I consider him to be the more well-rounded mixed martial artist.

Non-televised Preliminary Bouts…

Heavyweight (206-265 lbs.):

Junior dos Santos (7-1) vs. Stefan Struve (16-2)

Struve is an M-1 Challenge veteran and based on his Dutch heritage, one might assume he’s a strong kickboxer. While he isn’t bad on his feet, the reality is that 12 of his 16 wins have come via submission.

He’s being counted out against dos Santos, who caused quite a stir at UFC 90 when he pulled off an upset first round TKO of Fabricio Werdum that caused Werdrum to get pink slipped.

I’m not so sure Struve should be overlooked because what did we truly learn about “Cigano” in just 1:21 of UFC action? That he can knock out an unprepared and out of shape Werdum?

Dos Santos trains under the Nogueiras so there’s no way the guy is a fluke. As such, I am going to predict him to win Saturday via second round TKO.

Lightweight (155 lbs.):

Evan Dunham (7-0) vs. Per Eklund (14-3-1)

Dunham accepted this fight on short notice but all indications are that he’s in fighting shape and ready to go. An undefeated lightweight prospect, Dunham’s hallmark is his wrestling. Eklund also has a solid ground game so we could see these fighters spend a lot of time standing in hopes of exposing a weakness.

Dunham is definitely a prospect but because Eklund has proven himself against higher caliber opponents such as David Baron, Rafael Dias and Samy Schiavo, I am going to give him the nod via unanimous decision.

Lightweight (155 lbs.):

Brian Cobb (15-4) vs. Terry Etim (11-2)

Cobb vs. Etim is a classic wrestler vs. striker matchup.

Cobb took this fight on short notice after Justin Buchholz was forced to withdraw due to injury. Fortunately for the former amateur wrestling standout, Cobb was already slated to compete on Feb. 21 for the M-1 Challenge so he was in full training camp mode when he got the call to fight.

Etim possesses good kickboxing skills and has solid UFC wins over Sam Stout and Matt Grice. The latter win against Grice was against a fighter who has a similar style to Cobb. However, Cobb is good enough of a wrestler that he was considered a hopeful for the 2008 U.S. Olympic team.

I think he uses his wrestling to control Etim while grounding out a unanimous decision victory.

Heavyweight (206-265 lbs.):

Neil Grove (7-1) vs. Mike Ciesnolevicz (16-3)

I was on the Neil Grove bandwagon after the unknown strolled down wearing a Karate Gi in his Cage Rage debut in July of 2007 and shocked everyone with a 10-second knockout of James Thompson. However, since the big win, I’ve seen a few holes in his game, such as suspect cardio and not much of a ground game.

Ciesnolevicz is a former IFL veteran and the Miletich product has long been overlooked by the MMA media. A well-rounded fighter, Ciesnolevicz normally competes at light heavyweight but has yearned for a shot at the UFC for so long that he was not only willing to take the bout on short notice but also move up in weight class.

Grove is a big heavyweight and if he connects with a punch on Mike C. — who could be giving up as much as 30 pounds on fight night — it’s likely lights out. However, I believe that Ciesnolevicz is going to turn the fight into a mixed martial arts bout as opposed to a brawl and I think his veteran savvy will prove the difference here. I like Ciesnolevicz to take the fight into deep water and record a third round TKO against a gassed Grove.

Welterweight (170 lbs.):

Paul Kelly (7-1) vs. Troy Mandaloniz (3-1)

We haven’t seen “Rude Boy” since he TKO’d Richie Hightower during the live finale for the sixth season of TUF way back in December of 2007.

The UFC has hung onto him but he likely will need to impress in order to remain on the UFC roster. Mandaloniz is a hard hitter but not a well-rounded fighter.

He could have some trouble against Kelly, a solid prospect who trains with Michael Bisping out of the Wolfslair Academy. I expect the 7-1 Kelly to win via unanimous decision.

Nick Diaz on Aoki:

“You know, there’s a lot of other people I’d like to fight, just considering Mach Sakurai is a lot older than I am,” Diaz said. “He’s probably in his late 30s I’d imagine, so I’m going to have a lot of respect for him and everything he’s done. I tend to do better with people I have less respect for. To be honest, I’d rather be fighting Shinya Aoki or Kawajiri — somebody other than the guy that got knocked out by someone I already beat [Gomi].

“I know the only way to win is not care to win or lose,” he said. “That’s why I’m not afraid of anybody and why I want to fight the best. I think Shinya Aoki is the best fighter here. I want to fight this guy — I think I can beat him.

Jason “Mayhem” Miller on Sakuraba:

“My biggest dream ever was to fight Sakuraba,” Miller said. “He was my hero growing up. I’m lucky that in my business, I’m allowed to beat my heroes up in the same way I beat my dad up now.

“Sakuraba is my hero, and the prospect of being able to fight my hero is huge. It’s my dream, and hopefully I can accomplish my dream here. I’m happy that we’re in the tournament at the same time. No matter who they put in front of me, I want to defeat them in the most exciting manner possible. I’ve never seen Sakuraba tap out.”

In the past 12 hours I’ve received a lot of e-mails, IMs, and phone calls that pretty much go like this: “Did you watch DREAM!? Man, how great was that?”

Great!? Wow, since when did the standard for greatness sink so low?

DREAM.3 wasn’t a bad way to kill nearly five hours on a Sunday afternoon. But aside from a fight of the year candidate between Eddie Alvarez and Joachim Hansen, what was so great about it? DREAM might have similar look to PRIDE; use a lot of its unique elements such as the Grand Prix format; and utilize a lot of the same fighters, but it’s not PRIDE. Not by a longshot.

I realize I am in the minority when I say that I was hardly impressed by DREAM.3, but then again, I stopped drinking the PRIDE kool-aid the day Zuffa bought the company from Dream Stage Entertainment. I think it’s high-time people start judging DREAM on the merits of DREAM and not on the past accomplishments of PRIDE.

And when you look at DREAM as a stand alone product, you begin to see it for what it really is:

a watered down version of PRIDE. DREAM.3 was a perfect example of everything that’s wrong with the promotion. I just have so many issues with the show I just watched that I don’t know where to begin. But let’s start with the production. Sorry folks, the stage setup we saw was not of PRIDE quality. The stage concept for DREAM.3 looked like NASA was doing construction on a satellite. The rampway was especially awkward, as it looked like a detour entrance area for the fighters to walk through because the normal ramp was out of order.

And don’t get me started on matchmaking. Yes, I know PRIDE provided its fair share of mis-matches over the years, but it was done with the intent to build stars. If they put an up and coming guy with someone that couldn’t hang with him, the sacrificial lamb at least a respectable fighter at one point in his career. Instead of giving of a bunch of has-beens, DREAM is feeding us a steady diet of never-will-bes.

I understand they are trying to make Jason “Mayhem” Miller into a big star in Japan, and understandably so. But could the talent differential be narrowed to the equivalent of pro vs. college as opposed to pro vs. high school? Is that too much to ask? And people are surprised that the ratings for the first two DREAM cards were low!? I mean, c’mon, Caol Uno vs. Mitsuhiro Ishida as your main event? I am not even certain if Ishida vs. Uno would have been good enough to headline a Bushido card. Which begs the question, why do so many people mark out to Ishida? When Josh Koscheck first started out everyone killed the guy because he relied too much on his wrestling yet Ishida gets a free pass? I respect Ishida as a fighter. He’s a tremendous wrestler. But he’s a little too one-dimensional right now for my tastes.

Another beef for me was HDNet’s production. Let me preface this by saying Kenny Rice is a good man and an accomplished announcer. I also have enjoyed his work on most of the MMA telecasts I’ve seen on HDNet. But he was not on his game for DREAM.3. I thought he did a much better job for Yarrenoka! when he touched down in Japan only a few hours before the show started. This time around, it was pretty obvious that he and Bas Rutten were in the U.S. doing a voiceover of the feed in a production studio. But what I don’t understand is that Rice was well-rested and ready this time around, yet sounded like he was in major need of a Red Bull.

My biggest issue was the call during the Alvarez vs. Hansen match. To me, that was without question a match of the year candidate. But Rice called it with the same kind of energy you’d expect for an opening match. The first round of the fight was the best round of the whole tournament that I’ve seen thus far but you wouldn’t know that by listening to the telecast. There was almost no storytelling. Alvarez scored two knockdowns in the first round. That’s a huge deficit in the scoring right there. Why didn’t they push Hansen’s need to finish Alvarez in order to have any chance to win that fight? There were just so many dramatic moments in that fight and incredible exchanges on the feet and the ground that were pooh-poohed.

DREAM is looking to build new stars yet there was relatively little buildup of the fighters. I heard very little on the background of the fighters and who they were and what was at stake. Unless I missed it, there was no discussion about how Alvarez was formerly a welterweight who dropped down after suffering the first loss of his pro career to Nick Thompson and about how he’s on the cusp of becoming a top ten lightweight. There was also no discussion about how Hansen was a staple of PRIDE’s Bushido shows and how he’s one of the toughest fighters in all of MMA. Did they even address the Planes, Trains, and Automobiles scenario that Nick Diaz experienced regarding his fight and being on the card?

I realize HDNet just recently got the rights to DREAM, but I still really felt they sounded overly unprepared. The pacing of the show was brutal. HDNet can’t be blamed for that but they can be blamed for a lack of content to compensate during the lulls. The intermission was especially embarrassing. How many times can you show the same tournament brackets? Why not try and sell “Inside MMA” to the viewing audience and go back to the studio for a special edition of the show where they have a moderator with a roundtable format featuring some fighters and or writers giving their thoughts on the matches that took place thus far? Then, they can also offer predictions for the remaining fights along with their breakdown. And can anything be done to cut down on the awkwardness that is experienced every time they had to cut away from FEG’s feed between fights?

The reality is that many of the HDNet telecasts I’ve seen are lacking in content and context.

Unfortunately, when they tried to add both content and context with the Mayhem Miller vignette that aired in the beginning of the show, they swung and missed. The segment jumped all over the place and I swear that the voiceover guy read the last paragraph three times in a row with some slight variations. Speaking of the voiceover guy, was it just me or was his voice a little much given the nature of the piece?

Look, I am grateful and appreciative of all the MMA action that HDNet is bringing to the table and I know they don’t have an unlimited budget, but I would like to see them try to up their game a little bit. That said, HDNet can only be blamed for so much. Much of the problems with DREAM.3 were because of DREAM, whether people want to admit that or not. Unlike some people who mark out to DREAM, I actually used to watch PRIDE. I enjoyed PRIDE. As an MMA fan, I grew up with PRIDE. But DREAM sir, you are no PRIDE.

1. Takeshi Yamazaki > Shoji Maruyama, decision

Shoji easily got the best of any standup and action but Yamazaki took him down frequently and laid on him while trying half-heartedly for submissions. In the MMA world Yamazaki deserved the win. In a perfect world Shoji deserved the victory.

2. Mayhem Miller > Katsuyori Shibata, strikes, Rd1

Mayhem, wearing Aoki tights, grabbed immediate mount and just unloaded with fists and knees on Shibata’s face making him a mess. He was playing to the crowd and the cameras acting like he does. Just complete domination and fun for Mayhem and the referree kindly stopped the fight.

3. Melvin Manhoef > Kim Dae Won, strikes, Rd1

Seeing this result you might picture it in your head as it was the most obvious of the card but it didn’t go that way. Won won (lulz) some standup early and then he slammed Manhoef down to the ground and was in his half guard. Manhoef was eventually able to get on top and pound him hard until Won quit and the ref mercifully stopped the fight after a hard knee.

4. Daisuke Nakamura > Jung Bu Kyung, strikes, Rd2

Nakamura really controlled the action from the feet and on the ground. Bu Kyung put up a fight but got caught right on the jaw and ref stopped the fight. Nakamura would have won a decision had he not stopped the fight.

5. Nick Diaz > Katsuya Inoue, strikes, Rd1

Diaz won the early standup and messed up Inoue’s nose pretty badly. It got closer but Diaz began just picking Inoue apart punch after punch and you saw the white towel (flag) fly into the ring as Inoue’s corner couldn’t take it any longer. Diaz just picked him apart at the end.

6. Tatsuya Kawajiri > Luis Buscape, decision

Kawajiri dominated the ground game for 14 minutes and Firmino had control for the last minute. No serious damage up and down in an uneventful fight but Kawajiri won a boring decision based on the rules.

7. Eddie Alvarez > Joachim Hansen, decision

Fight of the card so far. Alvarez really controlled the action but Hansen came back with a vengeance in round two. Alvarez won the decision, awesome fight. He won the standup, he won the ground game, just a very good fight though this one was rather close.

8. Caol Uno > Mitsuhiro Ishida, sub, Rd2

Ishida controlled most of the first and used his wrestling when he needed it. Uno put up a solid fight and fought back but Ishida controlled most of the action. In the second round, Uno took him down, got control, and out of almost nowhere landed a choke to finish the fight.

Questions arose when Diaz was originally pulled off the card as he had apparently gained weight due to the belief he wasn’t fighting.

Diaz will spend his last few hours in the United States cutting weight before heading to Japan to face former King of Pancrase Katsuya Inoue in Dream.

“Tonight we will be pulling an all-nighter cutting weight,” Gracie said late Wednesday.

Unfortunate for Diaz and hopefully he’s at 100% for the weekend. And according to Cesar Gracie the man we have to thank is apparently ProElite CEO Doug DeLuca….

“He thought Nick sort of got screwed with the whole California Athletic Commission thing,”

We still don’t have all the details on that situation but one would assume he needn’t bring his questionable medical marijuana card to Japan.

Unfortunately, however, Gracie told DeSantis that Diaz has gained back a bunch of the weight that he had lost in preparation for the bout and wouldn’t be able to make the weight for the fight. DeSantis said that Gracie was going to talk to representatives from the DREAM organization as soon as possible to see if the fight could take place at a catch weight of 175 lbs.

We’ll keep you posted on the status of Diaz on the DREAM 3 card, so keep it dialed in to FiveOuncesOfPain.com!

• Mitsuhiro Ishida vs. Caol Uno
• Joachim Hansen vs. Eddie Alvarez
• Tatsuya Kawajiri vs. Luiz Firmino
• Jason “Mayhem” Miller vs. Katsuyori Shibata
• Nick Diaz vs. Katsuya Inoue
• Melvin Manhoef vs. Dae Won Kim
• Daisuke Nakamura vs. Bu Kyung Jung
• Katsuhiko Nagata vs. TBA
• Takeshi Yamazaki vs. TBA

The May 11th card will air on TBS in Japan and live on HDNet in the United States at 3am with a replay that afternoon at 4pm.

Diaz will be facing off in a bout against Katsuya Inoue, a Pancrase veteran. Diaz has not competed since November 2007 when he lost a fight due to doctor stoppage against K.J. Noons for the EliteXC lightweight title.

Diaz was scheduled to fight on March 29th at the EliteXC/Strikeforce card but was unable to compete due to some issues with his medical paperwork and possibly an issue with his medical marijuana card.

Aoki “wants to go on, but it’s up to the doctors,” said Mike Kogan, head of U.S. promotion for Dream’s owner, Fight Entertainment Group. The examination is scheduled for later on Friday — keep in mind that Japan is a day ahead of North America — so Aoki’s fate could be known several hours from now.

I find it highly doubtful that Aoki will continue, especially seeing as how he stated even before the second JZ fight that he didn’t have much intention on continuing on in the tournament. Stay tuned…

Calvancante was approached about replacing the Japanese fighter, but the 24-year-old American Top Team representative could not come to terms with the promotion and has since left Japan.

That’s a bummer for DREAM, but that’s what happens when you don’t make a clear ruling on the first fight between the two. DREAM deciding that the first fight was a no contest put them in this position. Aoki had expressed a while back that he may not continue on in the tournament regardless of the outcome of the second fight with JZ or whether or not he was injured, so DREAM has no one to blame but themselves for this predicament.